Fantasy Sleepers: Starting Pitching

[JoshRedcay]

There are many starting pitchers out there that could be labeled as "sleeper" in fantasy this season. I'm going to touch on three that I think could make a fairly big impact this upcoming season. The three guys I'm talking about are Daniel Hudson, Jhoulys Chacin, and Jaime Garcia.

First let's look at Daniel Hudson's 2010 stats...

[NOTE]95.1 INN, 8-2 record, 2.45 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 84 Ks, 27 walks, 7.9 K/9[/NOTE]

What a line for a guy who is only 23 years old. He is only going to continue to improve greatly as he ages and gains more experience. I don't think all that many are targeting Hudson, especially in the more shallow 10-team leagues.

If Hudson gets a considerable gain in innings this year, we will really see what he's made of. He is of course a risky pick in some ways, being such a young pitcher, but I like the reward and the upside. Hudson is easily worth a middle round pick in my opinion.

Now let's check out Jhoulys Chacin...

[NOTE]137.1 INN, 2-2 record, 3.28 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 138 K's, 61 walks, 9.0 K/9[/NOTE]

Once again we have another 23 year old pitcher, but this one is on a team that could very well take the division in 2011. He's got huge sleeper potential and has everything it takes to be a great fantasy SP. As of right now he is probably just a No. 5 SP, but down the road I think he's going to be something special.

I must say he may be a bit more valuable for a keeper league, but I can see him having a very good season in 2011 with all the favorable match-ups he'll be getting near the bottom of the rotation. One more thing I want to point out is that astonishing K/9 rate...NINE strikeouts a game. Now that's VERY impressive, and will give you tons of fantasy production. Look for another great year from Chacin.

Last but not least we have Jaime Garcia...

[NOTE]163.1 INN, 13-8 record, 2.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 132 K's, 64 walks, 7.3 K/9[/NOTE]

Garcia has really fallen under the shadow of Cardinal pitchers Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. He may not be a huge strikeout pitcher, but he will definitely do wanders for your ERA and will also rack of a good amount of wins. He's also an excellent ground-ball pitcher and gets the ball in the strike zone with many good, solid pitches.

He is working with pitching coach Dave Duncan this off-season, who has a great track record of getting good results. Garcia has a very high ceiling like the other two previous guys, and I really think he's worth a middle round pick. What makes guys like these great, though, is that you may be able to get them in the later rounds. This could very well be a 15-win breakout season for Garcia, so keep a close lookout for him on fantasy, he could be a great steal.

[JoshRedcay]

Any thoughts on these guys?

[astrosfanatic]

I see Garcia coming back down to Earth this year, and even so i dont see him as a huge fantasy guy because of his average K/9 numbers. he is basically an ERA/Wins guy, and since those are the 2 stats that vary from year to year the most, i think i will pass on him this year.


Chacin and Hudson on the other hand have the peripheral stats to suggest that they will be worth a shot in later rounds of drafts this year. The K/9 numbers alone make them worth a roster spot.

[WilsonC]

I think Garcia is probably well enough known among Fantasy players, and likely enough to regress that I don't see him as a sleeper. Chacin I like a lot; his K rates are terrific.

One guy I like is Brandon Morrow. His overall 2010 numbers aren't anything special outside of the great K rate, but they only tell a part of the story:

2010, through March 26:
50 IP, 6.66 ERA, 65 K, 32 BB, 11.7 K/9, 5.76 BB/9

2010, March 31 to end of year:
96.1 IP, 3.36 ERA, 113 K, 34 BB, 10.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9

He struggled with his command early in the season, but after the first two months, he essentially cut his walks in half while keeping everything else the same. His K are value regardless, but he has tremendous upside if his improvement in command persists.

[astrosfanatic]

One guy I like is Brandon Morrow. His overall 2010 numbers aren't anything special outside of the great K rate, but they only tell a part of the story:

2010, through March 26:
50 IP, 6.66 ERA, 65 K, 32 BB, 11.7 K/9, 5.76 BB/9

2010, March 31 to end of year:
96.1 IP, 3.36 ERA, 113 K, 34 BB, 10.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9

He struggled with his command early in the season, but after the first two months, he essentially cut his walks in half while keeping everything else the same. His K are value regardless, but he has tremendous upside if his improvement in command persists.

he is a guy that will have more value than Hudson/Chacin b/c he is further along and his innings wont be cut as much as they will for the youngins