Jose Bautista in 2011?

[JoshRedcay]

I'm obviously not a Blue Jays fan, but do you guys think that Bautista can have another season like the last? I think we all know that he isn't hitting 50+ again, but do you guys think that he can be a 40+ homerun guy, or do you think he will drop down to 15-20?

In my opinion, Bautista will end up with about 30-35 homers at the end of 2011. I think the average will stay about where it is.

[Old Sweater]

I think 40 max but a lot of the so called experts thought that he would cool off last year.

[JoshRedcay]

Write this down now. He will not hit more than 35 home runs and his average will go significantly down.

Yeah I would probably have to agree with you here, he is going to start trying to hit homers way too much and he will end up just flying out a lot, which only does bad for the average.

[Baseballnum3er0]

I think we all know that he isn't hitting 50+ again

He's hitting 75 this year....mark my words. /sarcasm

In all seriousness I think it really depends on how he starts, a good April and imo he will be hovering around 40. If he starts slow or just decently he'll probably end up low 30's or worse as I see it.

I think it breaks down to this. Baseball is a game that's 90% mental, 7% physical, and 3% luck. A lot of this comes from what Josh mentioned in the post above about trying to hit homers, if they come without trying at the start he won't need to try to hit homers, if they don't he probably will.

[SHK]

I don't think he comes close to last year's numbers again, but that doesn't mean he can't be a fine player. Still, it might be a good time to sell high on Bautista if there's a market for him. It's really impossible to predict what he'll do.

[WilsonC]

I figure he'll be in the 30's. I do think he's become a legitimate power bat, but true 50 HR power is extremely rare. Most 50 HR seasons are 30-40 HR guys having career years, which is likely the case here.

[astrosfanatic]

I don't think he comes close to last year's numbers again, but that doesn't mean he can't be a fine player. Still, it might be a good time to sell high on Bautista if there's a market for him. It's really impossible to predict what he'll do.

glad to see you here SHK

The Blue Jays have a lot of good young talent with Snyder and Arencibia mixed in with veterans like Hill, Escobar, and Encarnacion....their offense will be just fine this year with or without Bautista. He will be missed by the Jays, but i think if the Jays dont plan on him being a big part of their future, now would be the time to trade him. It's not going to be like they are hurting for the HR with Hill, Lind, Arencibia, and now Napoli.

[SHK]

I don't know if their offense will be fine. It depends on a lot. Wells is gone, Bautista won't come close to 50 (probably). Napoli makes up for some of Wells' lost production. We also, hopefully, get a full year of Travis Snider and I can't wait to see what he does. The guy that really needs to bounce back is Adam Lind. He's potentially their best hitter. It's an interesting lineup potentially.

[WilsonC]

They've got team power for sure, but they're lacking in guys who are consistently on base for the boppers. There's a lot of question marks on that front; will Bautista retain his patience from last year even if his power regresses? Will Yunel Escobar return to his previously solid OBP levels? How much will Hill and Lind bounce back? Will Snider take a step forward in contact or plate discipline skills? There's a lot of variance here; with their power, they could be a good offense with the right breaks, but there's also a lot of question marks.

[sjnemeth3]

Luis Gonzalez went from 57 HRs in 2001 to 28 HRs in 2002. I expect to see a similar catastrophic drop from Jose Bautista this upcoming season.