Cole Hamels, to Milwaukee?

[Mr. Baseball]

Don't laugh until you read on...

With the inevitable loss of Zach Greinke in the coming weeks, it's time for the Brewers to start thinking ahead and pursue potential pitching options for the near future (2013).

Zach Greinke will undoubtedly end up being the prize package when his name is called into free agency at the end of the season. Arguably, the number two available pitcher will be Cole Hamels (assuming he doesn't resign with Philadelphia). With Brewers general manager Doug Melvin being prone to making blockbuster moves in the off-season, I don't think the possibility of acquiring a guy such as Hamels would be entirely ruled out, especially considering the Brewers open up a lot of financial space this off-season.

Potential Key Losses:

Zach Greinke (11 Million)
Randy Wolf (9.5 Million) - Why on god's earth he's paid so much is beyond me
Francisco Rodriguez (Trade?) - 8 Million
Nyjer Morgan - (2.3 Million )

This essentially creates a whirlwind of opportunity at the Winter Meetings.

I think fans often forget that Milwaukee is no longer a small-market franchise. We're getting up there with the big spenders.

With that said, here's what our rotation might look like with Hamels next season:

1. Yovani Gallardo
2. Shaun Marcum
3. Cole Hamels
4. Michael Fiers
5. Tyler Thornburg (Top 100 Prospect)

[Baseballnum3er0]

Randy Wolf (9.5 Million) - Why on god's earth he's paid so much is beyond me

I laughed when you first told me he was making that much. Just as a note his buyout is 1.5 million.

Morgan also eligible for arbitration and is not a free agent after the season, however, he could be a non tender candidate.

I'm honestly not sure that Hamels is the clear number 2 like you seem to insist, if I had to pick one that I thought would get a larger contract today it would probably be Hamels. He is left handed and they really do have similar stats. On top of that Hamels has had success in the playoffs. While I realize that it isn't necessarily fair to Grienke given the fact that he has only had 3 postseason starts, but if I am a team considering signing one of these two guys I probably have some intention of going to the playoffs and want a guy who has shown he can perform on the big stage.

As for the actual point of the thread, anything is possible but it really is early to start talking about free agency. We have yet to see if Hamels gets traded and possibly extends with the new team as a part of the deal(unlikely, yet possible I suppose)

[Mr. Baseball]

Randy Wolf and Jeff Suppan are responsible for crippling Milwaukee financially for the past five years. Suppan made 12.7 Million in 2010 and 2009, and Randy Wolf continues to be the second highest paid Brewer with a 5.80 ERA.

Thank you Doug Melvin.

[Mudge]

Randy Wolf and Jeff Suppan are responsible for crippling Milwaukee financially for the past five years. Suppan made 12.7 Million in 2010 and 2009, and Randy Wolf continues to be the second highest paid Brewer with a 5.80 ERA.

Thank you Doug Melvin.

To be fair, I think the media and the fans must shoulder some of the responsibility.

I have not done a longitudinal study, but it seems to me that it's a rare open-market free agent pitcher that is ever worth what he gets paid over the long haul. Sabathia comes to mind perhaps. Even so, generally you might get a couple a good years, but rarely as best I can tell for the full length of the contract.

And there have been some huge flat-outs busts: Pavano, Burnett, Lackey, et al (at least Wolf gives you 200+ innings a year with numbers right around his career rate. Suppan, not so much).

Here's the rub, though. Self-professed competitive organizations and their general managers in particular are excoriated by the media and the fans if they DON'T try to sign these guys. I don't know what the Milwaukee press was like with the signing of Suppan and Wolf, but I'd venture it was not far off from what I heard from the Boston press when it came to Matsuzaka and Lackey. "Our GM is standing pat. I mean, what's the guy thinking? Why doesn't he go after some of the free agent talent, damn him..."

You're damned if you do and damned if you don't. Personally, I'd never give a pitcher more than a two-year deal, but then again, I'd never survive in any market as a GM.

[Sage]

Yeah Mudge, that's very accurate to what the fans were thinking around here in the offseasons in which we signed those guys. They always complain about us not signing free agents, and when we do, they complain about who we signed.

As for Hamels, I have to be honest, he will be the #1 available free agent pitcher. It will be close, though, but Hamels has a couple things going for him that Greinke does not: consistency and throwing with his left hand. I think Greinke has more ace-potential, but does not show it consistently enough (2009, at times last year, and at times this year). Hamels is consistently one of the top southpaws in the game. That said, I don't necessarily agree that Hamels SHOULD be the #1. Greinke has a much higher WAR (though he has been around longer). Either way, it's going to be very close, but if I had to pick one that will be coveted as the top available pitcher this offseason, I would guess teams will pick Hamels over Greinke.

That said, why would we sign Hamels instead of Greinke? If we can afford Hamels, we can afford Greinke, so we should just keep Greinke, who is already comfortable with us and his role here. That said, we can't afford either of them, no matter how much we'd like to. Sure, we have money coming off the books, but that doesn't mean we can afford them. These are guys that, for a team like us, if we sign them, we won't be able to afford any other free agents when they come around. This is a business. If contracts like Wolf and Suppan handcuffed us, don't you think signing a guy like Greinke or Hamels to a contract that will be twice the yearly cost of Suppan/Wolf, no matter how good the player is, would handcuff us, too?

Also, a quick note about the potential rotation you posted, it would look like this were we to sign either of these guys:

1. Zack Greinke/Cole Hamels
2. Yovani Gallardo
3. Shaun Marcum
4. Chris Narveson
5. Mike Fiers

[Baseballnum3er0]

Greinke has a much higher WAR (though he has been around longer).

I don't get this statement, Grienke has pitched in ~1 more season (I'm ignoring 06 as a year because he only pitched 6 innings) and according to BR and has a 3.1 higher WAR value over that time which I wouldn't classify as much higher, although that is subjective. However, over 1/3 of that comes from one season when he went insane and you are defiantly right about one thing, consistency is a concern with Grienke as there has been a lot of fluctuation in his stats.

This season it is 2.3 to 2.2 in WAR(Greinke has the .1 edge). The two seasons prior to this one Hamels has posted 5.2 and 6.3 WAR values respectively while Greinke has posted 3.2 and 1.4. I honestly think when you say Hamels will cost more than Greinke all is as it should be.

On to why not sign Greinke instead, my personal assumption is that the Brewers are going to trade him which is also why I said in my first post it really is too early to start talking about free agency as we have not seen how the cards will fall at the trade deadline yet. Of course the price has to be right and there defiantly some big names that could be moved at the deadline but if I am in the Brewers situation I would probably be willing to trade Greinke if I could get a decent amount more value than the draft picks that would be obtained if he walks. The only name that I can remember to be traded and return via free agency nearly right away is Cliff Lee. I'm sure there are others, but I just can't see him being traded and then resigning.

[Sage]

I don't get this statement, Grienke has pitched in ~1 more season (I'm ignoring 06 as a year because he only pitched 6 innings) and according to BR and has a 3.1 higher WAR value over that time which I wouldn't classify as much higher, although that is subjective. However, over 1/3 of that comes from one season when he went insane and you are defiantly right about one thing, consistency is a concern with Grienke as there has been a lot of fluctuation in his stats.

I was fairly vague with that statement, my bad. I meant career WAR, and I use Fangraphs for my stats, so they are a bit different. I will agree, most of that difference in WAR between the two came from his Cy Young year.

My thought on why sign Hamels instead of Greinke was based purely on the assumption that we could afford either of them, which we simply cannot. If we could, Greinke would already be extended with us. So, really, if we can't afford Greinke, it makes no sense to even try to go after Hamels. Ya know what I'm saying?

I think the Brewers will trade Greinke if a package with more value than the draft picks we would get comes along, and then focus on filling positions in the offseason from within or with smaller free agents.

[Baseballnum3er0]

I was fairly vague with that statement, my bad. I meant career WAR, and I use Fangraphs for my stats, so they are a bit different. I will agree, most of that difference in WAR between the two came from his Cy Young year.

My thought on why sign Hamels instead of Greinke was based purely on the assumption that we could afford either of them, which we simply cannot. If we could, Greinke would already be extended with us. So, really, if we can't afford Greinke, it makes no sense to even try to go after Hamels. Ya know what I'm saying?

I think the Brewers will trade Greinke if a package with more value than the draft picks we would get comes along, and then focus on filling positions in the offseason from within or with smaller free agents.

I had a feeling you used fangraphs, always bothers me how the 2 WAR values are different and I've never taken the time to learn why.

I get what you are saying though and its a good point, I was not even thinking about the fact that they have yet to reach an extension. We seem to agree on the end conclusion though.