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Thread: Reason to not trust Baseball-Reference for stats

  1. #1
    Top Prospect The Edge's Avatar
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    Reason to not trust Baseball-Reference for stats

    I am stealing this from another site but I have always noticed inconsistencies with such things as WAR.



    Fantastic article from Baseball Prospectus, I'm not going to copy and paste because there are lots of graphs and formatting oddities.
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=17183

    The article discusses the differences between DRS and other advanced fielding metrics. For those who don't know (Leftwich) these metrics rate players by the plays they make in the field, compared to their peers. If a player catches a ball that almost no one would, he is awarded heavily, if he fails to make an easy play he is penalized. Over large sample sizes they offer a very good measure of a players defense.

    The article focuses on how DRS credits players for plays they make in shifts. UZR ignores these plays, and credits it to the manager for deciding to use a shift. As the picture I posted shows, shifts can sometimes lead to a player being very out of position. DRS gives Brett Lawrie credit for plays he makes in shallow right field, as a third baseman. Obviously every other third baseman doesn't make that play, so the award is big. UZR does not do this. The result?
    DRS: 21 runs saved
    UZR: 6.6 runs saved.

    This heavily skews a players WAR also. Baseball Reference ranks Brett Lawrie as the fourth most valuable position player in MLB this year.

    Discuss.

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    BN Staff Member Mudge's Avatar
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    I'm not up on my metrics.

    Can you paraphrase this, or is it just not worth it?
    "I think about the cosmic snowball theory. A few million years from now the sun will burn out and lose its gravitational pull. The earth will turn into a giant snowball and be hurled through space. When that happens it won't matter if I get this guy out." Bill Lee

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    Single-A chicagowhitesox1173's Avatar
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    Yeah last I saw Lawrie had a 2.8 defensive war and that just doesn't seem right. If he really starts hitting he could end up with a 10.0 war which is legendary.
    "I have the ultimate respect for Whitesox fans, They were as miserable as Cubs and Redsox fans ever were but had the good decency to keep it to themselves and when they finally won they didn't annoy every other fan in the country." Jim Caple, ESPN Jan. 2011

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    Top Prospect The Edge's Avatar
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    Baseball Reference does not account for things such as the shift, so when the Blue Jays move him into right field on a shift BR gives him massive range because no other 3rd basemen makes catches in shallow right field. Therefore he has a 21 Defensive Runs Saved to weight into his WAR. However places like Fangraphs and baseball prospectus do account for this shift and his defensive ratings are much lower than what Baseball Reference is.

    To compare, Fangraphs has Lawrie's WAR at 1.8, Baseball Reference at 3.6, and Baseball Prospectus 2.1.

    Baseball Reference's major difference is giving Lawrie credit for making plays in Right Field as if he starts from 3B when in the shift.

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