Blind 3rd Base Comparison

[soberdennis]

Since I do know who each of these players are, mine isn't blind by any means but by evaluating numbers I think I'd evaluate as follows:

Player D - I think he's the best overall player. He provides the best range of offense with defense that would make anyone envious. Probably should be a unanimous #1.

Player C - Player C is very comparable to Player E. They are both not great defensively, hanging on average around where you'd expect to find an average fielder. Offensively I think Player C has a significant edge, finding himself on base about 6 times more often per 100 at bats. That would add up over 15-20 years. Basing on stolen bases I'd argue that Player C is at the least probably the smartest base runner on the list and also leads the list where WPA was available by a rather significant margin.

Player E - Knowing some external facts on this guy, I would actually have him a spot lower but over stats I did provide for you guys, I have to place him here.

Player A - This guy was an on base machine and provided really good defense too.

Player B - Not much that can really be said. Not significantly worse in any area than anyone. Didn't have mind blowing defense but also didn't have the big bat that the first 2 players did either(Player D and C)

Player E - I think this guy gets lost in the conversation over quantifying the importance of defense. His bat was about as average as it gets but according to the numbers he was twice the fielder that any other player on this list is. Being familiar with TZR/UZR that 16 number averaged over the course of an entire career is just insane. I think if he had a slightly better bat I'd have him up the list further.



Thanks for all the input, of those voting I have a question pm'd(except soberdennis, his pm box was full) to you guys and when I get a response from each of you I will reveal the identities and compare the question I asked you guys.

Sorry about that. I have been on so little in the past year, I didn't think of checking my pm box. I have now cleared it.

[Chitown Champ]

After the additional stats, I'll revise my list, but with the same sort of analysis where I weigh defense and offense much more equal than most people I would think.

Player D: I'm 100% sure I know who this is and this guy rightfully belongs at the top. A combination of excellent power and great defense puts him head and shoulders at the top. After this, it gets interesting

Player A: This guy seems out of place in terms of position. His stats represent more of a powerful second baseman, but regardless, he has a great glove and looks to be a very consistent hitter at least contact-wise. Another pretty balanced player.

Player B: A decent glove in this bunch, but perhaps the second best hitter on here. Slightly one dimensional, but bat outweighs glove here, I think.

Player F: I'm also 100% sure who this guy is and I still have no idea where to put him. On one side, his bat is nothing special but his glove seems to be so good that it produces runs of its own. His stats are so peculiar that I can't place him at either extremity, so he goes in the middle.

Player C: The best bat but also the worst glove. Like F, I can't decide where to put this guy so he also goes somewhere in the middle. Maybe if he was a DH I'd put him up top.

Player E: From these stats, both his bat and his glove appear to be nothing special in this list.

I have an idea who these top 6 players are, but can't match all players to their assigned letter. I've told The Edge this as well: aside from #1, pretty much any of the next 5 can be placed after that with a good argument.
Different eras that these player played in also makes this a tough analysis.

[The Edge]

In the PMs I've gotten a few responses asking people to name their top 5 3rd Basemen of all time.

Here are the responses:

Schmidt
Robinson
ARod
Traynor
Nettles

Mike Schmidt at the top.
Brooks Robinson
Eddie Mathews
Chipper Jones
George Brett

^ Last 4 in no particular order.

And of course A Rod if you want to base his career at 3rd is up there with the last 4.

1. Mike Schmidt
2. Eddie Mathews
3. Chipper Jones
4. Wade Boggs
5. George Brett

As of now, my top 5 for 3rd base are, in a rudimentary particular order: Mike Schmidt, Wade Boggs, George Brett, Brooks Robinson, and Eddie Mathews, assuming A-Rod isn't eligible. Though honestly, aside from Schmidt, you can arrange Boggs, Brett, Robinson, Mathews, or Chip in almost any order. You can even place in Home Run Baker or Pie Traynor in that list if you want to play the time game. Your stats and blind test is pushing me to take a new look at the stats.

I'm going to go ahead and make note that I did not use Alex Rodriguez in this comparison. Particularly for the fact that half his career(1300 to 1100 games) have came at shortstop, including his best years. I will further note that he is very similar in numbers to Player C and Player E in the comparison. Given that he was +25 run fielder at SS and not great at 3B, I have to think of him as a SS. Averaging less than a full run above average per 162 games, essentially the very average fielder.



Player A


Wade Boggs

.328/.415/.443
.380 wOBA
131 wRC+
131 OPS+
Averaged 6.3 WAR Per 162 games
36.97 WPA
+7 UZR/TZR per 162

162 Game Averages:
100 Runs, 200 hits, 50 XBH, 270 TB, 2 SB, 2 CS





Player B


George Brett

.305/.369/.487
.374 wOBA
133 wRC+
135 OPS+
Averaged 5.5 WAR Per 162 games
54.98 WPA
+2.8 UZR/TZR per 162

162 Game Averages:

95 Runs, 189 Hits, 67 XBH, 302 TB, 12 SB, 6 CS


Player C


Chipper Jones

.304/.402/.532
.399 wOBA
143 wRC+
141 OPS+
Averaged 6.0 WAR per 162 games
62.57 WPA
-2.7 UZR/TZR per 162 games

162 Game Averages:

106 Runs, 177 Hits, 69 XBH, 310 TB, 10 SB, 3 CS


Player D


Mike Schmidt

.267/.380/.527
.395 wOBA
146 wRC+
147 OPS+
Average 7.4 WAR per 162
53.67 WPA (missing 1 season of data)
+8.6 UZR/TZR per 162

162 Game Averages:

101 Runs, 151 Hits, 68 XBH, 297 TB, 12 SB, 6 CS


Player E


Eddie Mathews

.271/.376/.509
.390 wOBA
143 wRC+
143 OPS+
Average 7.3 WAR per 162
WPA Incomplete
+2.2 UZR/TZR per 162

162 Game Averages:

102 Runs, 157 Hits, 64 XBH, 295 TB, 5 SB, 3 CS


Player F


Brooks Robinson

.267/.322/.401
.322 wOBA
105 wRC+
104 OPS+
Average 5.3 WAR per 162
WPA Incomplete
+16.4 UZR/TZR per 162

162 Game Averages:

69 Runs, 159 hits, 46 XBH, 239 TB, 2SB, 1CS


And just to throw some bonus players in here with these that have came up:


Alex Rodriguez*

.301/.386/.564
.406 wOBA
147 wRC+
144 OPS+
Average 7.5 WAR per 162
52.93 WPA
+1.8 UZR/TZR per 162

162 Game Averages:
122 Runs, 187 hits, 77 XBH, 350 TB, 21 SB, 5 CS

*over half his games have came at the Short Stop position


Pie Traynor

.320/.362/.435
.368 wOBA
108 wRC+
107 OPS+
Average 3.52 WAR per 162
No WPA available
-2.7 UZR/TZR per 162

162 Game Averages:
99 Runs, 202 Hits, 50 XBH, 275 TB, 13 SB, CS is incomplete(in seasons with complete stats he averaged 23SB/13 CS)


Home Run Baker

.307/.363/.442
.383 wOBA
134 wRC+
135 OPS+
Average 6.8 WAR per 162
No WPA
+3.6 TZR/UZR per 162

162 Game Averages:
91 runs, 189 hits, 53 XBH, 272 TB, 24 SB, no CS records(in seasons where they exist he is barely a 50% success rate 40/25, 19/20, 8/5, 1/3)

[The Edge]

In using a system assigning 10 points for a 1st place vote and 9 for second and 1 point down for each selection then averaging them based on the votes, here is the order determined by statistical value(essentially a first place vote is 10 points down to a last place receiving 5 points):

Player D - Mike Schmidt - total points 45, avg/vote 9
Player C - Chipper Jones - total points 40.5, avg/vote 8.1
Player A - Wade Boggs - total points 40.5, avg/vote 8.1
Player E - Eddie Mathews - total points 37, avg/vote 7.4
Player B - George Brett - total points 35, avg/vote 7.0
Player F - Brooks Robinson - total points 27, avg/vote 5.4

[soberdennis]

I thought Traynor was supposed to be better defensively than that.

[The Edge]

I thought Traynor was supposed to be better defensively than that.

According to TZR/UZR he's essentially like Chipper Jones, has a couple of good years then has a couple of bad years. Had a .947 fielding percentage, to Chippers .954. 1860ish games for Traynor at 3rd and just over 1900 for Chipper so they spent about the same time at 3rd.


Chipper is one that was completely plagued by the down years. For almost his entire career he was right around the average mark, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2006, 2009 and 2011 were just terrible at -6 or worse years. He also had a -5.9 in 2003 but that was part of his stint in LF when the Braves signed Vinny Castilla. In his 1274 games played outside those seasons he averaged a +2 UZR per 162. In those 6 years he averaged a -10.3 UZR per 162.

Traynor was never that bad but had plenty of years hanging around the -4 area.

[soberdennis]

According to TZR/UZR he's essentially like Chipper Jones, has a couple of good years then has a couple of bad years. Had a .947 fielding percentage, to Chippers .954. 1860ish games for Traynor at 3rd and just over 1900 for Chipper so they spent about the same time at 3rd.


Chipper is one that was completely plagued by the down years. For almost his entire career he was right around the average mark, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2006, 2009 and 2011 were just terrible at -6 or worse years. He also had a -5.9 in 2003 but that was part of his stint in LF when the Braves signed Vinny Castilla. In his 1274 games played outside those seasons he averaged a +2 UZR per 162. In those 6 years he averaged a -10.3 UZR per 162.

Traynor was never that bad but had plenty of years hanging around the -4 area.

I might add for those of us that understand fldg% more than UZR/TZR, .947 and .954 are usually not bad for a 3rd baseman. I'd say that is about average.