Dbacks sign C Miguel Montero to a five year/ $ 60 million Extension

[The Edge]

I think Hundley should be in that list then, but regardless...

I have already addressed that I do not believe Montero will finish anywhere close to 59.3% CS, but somewhere around or even an increase from last year's 40% is possible; he can allow 13 steals with no throw outs and still tie last year. And historically average isn't necessarily true either considering he's had three years of above average CS% (which is my current basis for defense as of now). Not many people will argue that McCann is the best offensive catcher in the league right now and fewer people will argue that Yadier Molina is the best defensive catcher in the league right now. If either were to get Montero's recent contract, I don't think there'd be much talk. But when Montero, whose defense is better than McCann and whose offense is arguably better than Molina, and whose offense/defense can at least be compared with McCann/Molina respectively, gets this kind of contract, there is some question on value. In the end, yes, I do agree with you that Montero appears to be getting overpaid as of now, but there is the potential that Montero starts to make a name for himself soon as an elite catcher. The chances of that may not look to good this season, but we're all still just evaluating speculatively.

I actually will have to disagree with Montero being better defensively than McCann. Because what CS% does not tell you is how the pitchers on the staff do at holding runners on base. McCann does not by any means have Yadier Molina's arm nor is he a top catcher defensively but he has great game calling skills. If anyone with any objectivity has watched the Braves the past half decade or so you can tell some things like how a vast majority of our pitching staff have never paid attention to runners on base, have incredibly slow moves to the plate. I think a lot can be said that when a future hall of fame pitcher specifically wants a rookie to be his personal catcher, that speaks volumes for his knowledge in the confidence he had in calling games and providing good defense. I look to things like for instance the Giants-Braves division series the year the Giants won the World Series, McCann threw every base stealer out that series but according to the stats he only threw 1 player out that series because of poor positioning of umpires, including a very definitive stolen base counted for the Giants that would plate the only run of the game when the inning should have been over. McCann is constantly the victim of pitchers like Tommy Hanson who never keep a runner close and consistently have turtle's pace movement to the plate to allow the runners a great lead. CS% is not some all seeing determination that a catcher is amongst the best in the league. There are so many factors out of the catchers hands.

Furthermore in evaluations(which are tough to find on catchers), dating the beginning of the 2009 MLB season had McCann as the third best catcher in MLB at saving runs behind Kurt Suzuki and Kenji Johjima. Montero was the worst in this category. Since 2008 to the present, Montero has a +1 in DRS, McCann a -1. Wieters leads all with a +30. Montero has a -12 TZ to McCann's -8. McCann has thrown out more would be base stealers than all but 2 catchers in that time. McCann is #2 in runs above average at blocking would be passed ball/wild pitches. Molina is #1, Montero doesn't even grace the top 35 in catchers who have caught 1500 innings in that time span.

[Chitown Champ]

I actually will have to disagree with Montero being better defensively than McCann. Because what CS% does not tell you is how the pitchers on the staff do at holding runners on base. McCann does not by any means have Yadier Molina's arm nor is he a top catcher defensively but he has great game calling skills. If anyone with any objectivity has watched the Braves the past half decade or so you can tell some things like how a vast majority of our pitching staff have never paid attention to runners on base, have incredibly slow moves to the plate. I think a lot can be said that when a future hall of fame pitcher specifically wants a rookie to be his personal catcher, that speaks volumes for his knowledge in the confidence he had in calling games and providing good defense. I look to things like for instance the Giants-Braves division series the year the Giants won the World Series, McCann threw every base stealer out that series but according to the stats he only threw 1 player out that series because of poor positioning of umpires, including a very definitive stolen base counted for the Giants that would plate the only run of the game when the inning should have been over. McCann is constantly the victim of pitchers like Tommy Hanson who never keep a runner close and consistently have turtle's pace movement to the plate to allow the runners a great lead. CS% is not some all seeing determination that a catcher is amongst the best in the league. There are so many factors out of the catchers hands.

Furthermore in evaluations(which are tough to find on catchers), dating the beginning of the 2009 MLB season had McCann as the third best catcher in MLB at saving runs behind Kurt Suzuki and Kenji Johjima. Montero was the worst in this category. Since 2008 to the present, Montero has a +1 in DRS, McCann a -1. Wieters leads all with a +30. Montero has a -12 TZ to McCann's -8. McCann has thrown out more would be base stealers than all but 2 catchers in that time. McCann is #2 in runs above average at blocking would be passed ball/wild pitches. Molina is #1, Montero doesn't even grace the top 35 in catchers who have caught 1500 innings in that time span.

McCann may have thrown out more runners, but what are the ratios? Perhaps there's a reason more people are running against him and maybe you're right; that reason might be because the pitchers are doing a horrible job of keeping them in check. I can't say, I don't watch the Braves enough. As for blocking balls, in order to increase quantity in blocking, there needs to be a wild pitch to block. You've concluded it with your first paragraph; stats are deceptive, incomplete, and sometimes the best attributes of a catcher stem from intangibles. Carlos Ruiz, for example, is probably one of the top catchers in the league but his stats aren't exactly prominent enough to garner the deserved praise from fans. We're also comparing catchers to each other, but how about arguing their true value to their respective teams?
I don't think we're going to get anywhere, being third party observers and trying to argue based on stats and our distant observations. Perhaps the D'backs felt that their next $60 million should be spent on a jack-of-all-trades catcher. Who are we to disagree with that right now?

[The Edge]

Perhaps the D'backs felt that their next $60 million should be spent on a jack-of-all-trades catcher. Who are we to disagree with that right now?

First I'm an opinionated fan sharing my opinion on a discussion forum. Second, I again have to disagree that a guy who has average wOBA and wRC+ numbers and over the past several years not proven among the elite in DRS at his position could be perceived as a "jack of all trades." As a discussion forum I am free to share my opinion, especially when the OP asked if we thought it was overpaying. We seem to disagree and your apparent evaluation of the position is clearly different.

As for blocking balls, in order to increase quantity in blocking, there needs to be a wild pitch to block

Actually no. This is DRS on blocking balls, and while yes there must be wild pitches it does not necessarily come cumulatively and the shear notion that over those past 4 years you think that if the Dbacks pitching was so great that he never seen a wild pitch his stats would be at 0.0 and not at the -6.9 it stands out, meaning on pitches he could block he's allowed almost 7 runs to come in where in that same time span McCann has stopped 17 runs from plating.


Stats do have flaws in them but to rely on CS% to determine a catcher is like relying solely on ERA to determine if a pitcher has had a good year. Its completely ridiculous. Furthermore not mentioned is that in the time span McCann had almost 500 people try to steal bases on him. Montero had 299 try to steal on him. There is no way you can say that because his rate stats are better he'd continue to throw runners out at that rate. If 50 more people per season were running on him, you have no clue. If 50 people less per year were running on McCann his rates could significantly improve or could get worse, its pure speculation. Reputation leads to more stolen base attempts. Like Rick Ankiels arm garners some respect on runners going home as compared to a guy like Martin Prado in the outfield who hasn't built respect and continues to get assists on players trying to push his arm. Prado has more assists than Ankiel this year, does that randomly mean that he has a better arm? No. Situation leads to opportunity. Montero may have reputation, it could be that the Dbacks never put teams in a position to need to swipe a run. The Braves have had a great pitching staff the 3 seasons before this one, the combo of pitchers not holding runners on or the team feeling the pressure to get a runner up a base to get runs that came as a premium could force the need for more stolen base attempts. Trying to diffuse that Montero just hasn't had any wild pitches thrown to him is absolutely absurd when given the time period its easy to see which pitching staff would have been more than likely to pitch wildly.

[Chitown Champ]

First I'm an opinionated fan sharing my opinion on a discussion forum. Second, I again have to disagree that a guy who has average wOBA and wRC+ numbers and over the past several years not proven among the elite in DRS at his position could be perceived as a "jack of all trades." As a discussion forum I am free to share my opinion, especially when the OP asked if we thought it was overpaying. We seem to disagree and your apparent evaluation of the position is clearly different.



Actually no. This is DRS on blocking balls, and while yes there must be wild pitches it does not necessarily come cumulatively and the shear notion that over those past 4 years you think that if the Dbacks pitching was so great that he never seen a wild pitch his stats would be at 0.0 and not at the -6.9 it stands out, meaning on pitches he could block he's allowed almost 7 runs to come in where in that same time span McCann has stopped 17 runs from plating.

First, my question was more directed at the meaning behind our disagreement that may have any effect in the future. Obviously any of us can actually disagree, but it's not going to have any monumental consequences aside from a lively discussion. And who knows? Montero might come back and finish the year with better stats than last year but he might also tear his ACL and need two years to recover. I'm not clairvoyant and I assume none of us on here are either so our disagreements are still speculatively.

As for jack of all trades, the second part of the saying is "master of none," so there's not need to be elite in any of the categories, but at least competent in all of them. But this is more English than baseball. Nonetheless, Montero may not be Ryan Doumit in terms of defense, nor Yadier, but that's not the point of the idiom. And Montero's complete history isn't particularly as appealing as his last few years, more specifically 2009 and 2011.

My argument goes back to your initial post. We both agree that he's overpaid, but you claimed that neither his defense/offense stands out, he wasn't a good player, and is having the worst year of any NL catcher. We already settled the NL catcher's worst year debate. His offense, though historically doesn't stand out, did raise eyebrows last year. Yes that was one year, but it still stands out that his ceiling reaches that high. His defense, yes, it isn't outstanding, but these days, not many catchers, or even players, have eye-popping defense. And for being a good player, that's still very speculative. Compared to all players? I don't think many catchers in general would be considered that good. Among catchers? He's at least top 10 (in my opinion), which is good in many people's minds.

[Bensharp]

Wow, you guys are in a pretty good argument over this. All I've got to say is that the Dbacks had to overpay for him because if they didn't who knows who'd be starting and believe me he wouldn't be worth talking about. As for this argument, Montero isn't the best defensive player in the league, but he is solid enough. If Montero was going to be the same player he is so far this year every year, then he isn't a top catcher, but if he can be the offensive player of 2009 and 2011, then he will earnt his contract. I have felling he will have flashes of both forms.