Dodgers General 2012 Season Thread

[TerryInLA]

We all know Matt Kemp had himself an almost impossible looking April, and so he was named the National League Player of the Month, winning it by a unanimous vote. It is the first monthly award in Kemp's career. Among major league ranks in April, Kemp was...

First in OPS (1.383)
First in slugging percentage (.893)
First in batting average (.417)
First in home runs (12)
First in RBI (25); tied with Josh Hamilton
First in runs scored (24); tied with Ian Kinsler
Second in hits (35); first in NL, Derek Jeter had 37
Second in on-base percentage (.490); David Wright was at .494

Kemp's 12 home runs set a new Dodgers franchise record for April. Kemp is hitting .400 as far back as his last 39 games, hitting .403/.462/.852 during that span, with 19 home runs, 44 RBI, and 43 runs scored.

The last Dodger to win National League Player of the Month was Manny Ramirez in August 2008.

[PitchingWins]

As a Giants Fan I have to give the Dodgers kudos for a great start. They won most of the games they played against poorer teams, they have pitched really well and Kemp was a beast. I did not see A.J. Ellis having the start he has had. In fact, both Ellises have been terrific (up until Mark got injured).

We still have to look at the reality, though.

The Dodgers played the Padres and Pirates for ten games to start the season (9-1). They are 24-20 since. They have yet to really be tested against the better teams in the NL. Kudos for the sweep of the Nats and the Cards (both were home series). Still, of the 54 games the Dodgers have played, only 12 have been against teams with winning records (Pirates, Braves, Nats and Giants). I have to consider the Cards a quality team (now at .500) yet I do not consider the Pirates stiff competition. Bottom line: they have built their record against a very favorable schedule for the first 1/3 of the season (54 games). They travel East for the first time today!

I do not expect that Capuano and A.J. Ellis continue their great starts. I expect the real ChadLey to show up. I just do not see talent past Kemp, Kershaw and Ethier. They do have some nice arms in the pen. I am dubious as to how good this team really is. They should win. The question remains, will they win that much more than they did in 2011?

I do expect them to be buyers at the deadline. The trouble is that to get a true impact player, often you have to give up high-end minor league talent (or trade ML talent). I just do not see the Dodgers farm as one that has been putting out quality Major League talent lately. That pipeline is pretty thin.

Their record so far in 2012 insinuates that the Dodgers are around a 100 win team (99 actually). I believe they are more like an 85 win team.

I will be very curious to see where they stand on the 4th of July after the Mets and Reds come to town!

I do not see the Diamondbacks recovering (see my take on Arizona from March). I do see the re-emergence of the great West Coast rivalry that began in 1958! This is good for Major League Baseball and I am glad that the Dodgers now appear on the right path after the McCourt fiasco.

Still, one has to compare and contrast the minor league system and pipelines of the Giants and Dodgers. One has been the best in MLB (along with Boston and Tampa Bay) for the last five or six years while the other has been pretty dismal.

Thoughts?

[The Edge]

I do not expect that Capuano and A.J. Ellis continue their great starts. I expect the real ChadLey to show up. I just do not see talent past Kemp, Kershaw and Ethier. They do have some nice arms in the pen. I am dubious as to how good this team really is. They should win. The question remains, will they win that much more than they did in 2011?

There is no way possible Ellis can keep up what he is doing. He has a .382 BABIP right now. His ISO power is almost 45 points more than anything he did in the minors and he is playing in a division with some of the better pitcher friendly parks in the NL(SF and SD). He's had an awesome start to the season but nothing within reason says he can continue that.

I think I have to agree with some and disagree with some on Capuano. Cap has been pretty decent and benefiting from some decent defense it seems. His ERA is about a full point below his FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA. His babip is also exactly 60 points lower than his career babip which furthers the point that he is getting pretty lucky, however I do feel that a guy with 3.50-3.80 type stats is still effective pitchers. Obviously not an ace but I don't think he's going to fall off the wagon and start giving up 5 runs a game every time out either.

I do expect them to be buyers at the deadline. The trouble is that to get a true impact player, often you have to give up high-end minor league talent (or trade ML talent). I just do not see the Dodgers farm as one that has been putting out quality Major League talent lately. That pipeline is pretty thin.

I think a lot of teams will be interested in buyers but this year's deadline is going to prove to be very interesting with the new CBA in the mix. Teams can't get compensation, and I really don't expect to see a lot of movement as compared to other years.

I will be very curious to see where they stand on the 4th of July after the Mets and Reds come to town!

I'm actually very curious to see what you see in the Mets. Overall that team just isn't that good. Pythag puts them under .500. Guys like Murphy, Tejada, and even David Wright are having years just like AJ Ellis. RA Dickey is very comparable to what Chris Capuano is doing. The bullpen is a steaming pile of manure. Then comes the question on Santana. He hasn't pitched a full season in 4 years(in regards to an ace making 33-36 starts).

I do not see the Diamondbacks recovering (see my take on Arizona from March).

The Diamondbacks I don't think had a chance to approach what they did last year in any way. It was neat to think about and I think people wanted to see them as the Rays of the NL but I don't think the talent is there yet.

Still, one has to compare and contrast the minor league system and pipelines of the Giants and Dodgers. One has been the best in MLB (along with Boston and Tampa Bay) for the last five or six years while the other has been pretty dismal.

The Dodgers system has not been that bad. They've made some dumb decisions to wear themselves thin, like trading guys like James McDonald away who have been one of the top 3-5 pitchers in the NL this season, but this statement is just a subjective statement. Each person and every evaluation is going to see those things rather differently.

[Old Sweater]

As a Giants Fan I have to give the Dodgers kudos for a great start. They won most of the games they played against poorer teams, they have pitched really well and Kemp was a beast. I did not see A.J. Ellis having the start he has had. In fact, both Ellises have been terrific (up until Mark got injured).

We still have to look at the reality, though.

The Dodgers played the Padres and Pirates for ten games to start the season (9-1). They are 24-20 since. They have yet to really be tested against the better teams in the NL. Kudos for the sweep of the Nats and the Cards (both were home series). Still, of the 54 games the Dodgers have played, only 12 have been against teams with winning records (Pirates, Braves, Nats and Giants). I have to consider the Cards a quality team (now at .500) yet I do not consider the Pirates stiff competition. Bottom line: they have built their record against a very favorable schedule for the first 1/3 of the season (54 games). They travel East for the first time today!

I do not expect that Capuano and A.J. Ellis continue their great starts. I expect the real ChadLey to show up. I just do not see talent past Kemp, Kershaw and Ethier. They do have some nice arms in the pen. I am dubious as to how good this team really is. They should win. The question remains, will they win that much more than they did in 2011?

I do expect them to be buyers at the deadline. The trouble is that to get a true impact player, often you have to give up high-end minor league talent (or trade ML talent). I just do not see the Dodgers farm as one that has been putting out quality Major League talent lately. That pipeline is pretty thin.

Their record so far in 2012 insinuates that the Dodgers are around a 100 win team (99 actually). I believe they are more like an 85 win team.

I will be very curious to see where they stand on the 4th of July after the Mets and Reds come to town!

I do not see the Diamondbacks recovering (see my take on Arizona from March). I do see the re-emergence of the great West Coast rivalry that began in 1958! This is good for Major League Baseball and I am glad that the Dodgers now appear on the right path after the McCourt fiasco.

Still, one has to compare and contrast the minor league system and pipelines of the Giants and Dodgers. One has been the best in MLB (along with Boston and Tampa Bay) for the last five or six years while the other has been pretty dismal.

Thoughts?

Going by the Dodgers Pythagorean record of 31-24=.564 ball they should win 91 games. They are a +3 in luck right now. I tend to agree with your 85 games.

[PitchingWins]

Going by the Dodgers Pythagorean record of 31-24=.564 ball they should win 91 games. They are a +3 in luck right now. I tend to agree with your 85 games.

I think the Dodgers are good. Just not nearly as good as they have played for the first 1/3 of the 2012 season.

And, can I mention how useless Pythagorean Record is?

What is it based on? Run Differential! I just don't see this metric having any value.

The Mariners beat the Rangers 21-8 last week, adding a +13 to their RD. They have also beat the Tigers 9-1, the Twins 7-0 and the Rockies 10-3 and the Rangers again 10-3. That is a +42 in five games in which they are 5-0. They are a +1 for the season so Pythag suggest they should be 29-28?

This is a team that struggles to get on base (.297 or 13 in the AL in team OBP), hit (.236 or 13th in the AL in team BA) or hit with much punch (8th in HR - 6th in XBH). They have also not pitched very well. The only thing they do exceptionally well is field. This is not a good team. This is not a team that should be anywhere close to .500 (much less above it as Pythag suggests). Oh, and the team is in last place at 7 games below .500

Check each and every team each and every year. You will find anywhere from 5 to 15 games where there is a blowout beyond the norm. How does this address the usual performance of any given team?

IMO, to look at Pythag, especially when we are 1/3 into a season, is a waste of time.

[PitchingWins]

There is no way possible Ellis can keep up what he is doing. He has a .382 BABIP right now. His ISO power is almost 45 points more than anything he did in the minors and he is playing in a division with some of the better pitcher friendly parks in the NL(SF and SD). He's had an awesome start to the season but nothing within reason says he can continue that.

Nice to see we agree!

I love advanced metrics yet I will not use them to refute what Ellis is doing. I just do not think he passes the eyeball test as the "elite" Catcher he is showing so far. And, as I said, I just do not see him continuing what he has been doing for the first 1/3 of 2012. He has been a nice surprise yet I do not see it lasting.

I think I have to agree with some and disagree with some on Capuano. Cap has been pretty decent and benefiting from some decent defense it seems. His ERA is about a full point below his FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA. His babip is also exactly 60 points lower than his career babip which furthers the point that he is getting pretty lucky, however I do feel that a guy with 3.50-3.80 type stats is still effective pitchers. Obviously not an ace but I don't think he's going to fall off the wagon and start giving up 5 runs a game every time out either.

What I think is going on with Capuano is that he is a late bloomer, which is common for Lefties. In his age 34 season, maybe he is starting to learn how to pitch? Still, this guy is a journeyman (as is Harang and to a certain extent, Lilly) and given enough starts, his numbers will slide. I do see him closer to 3.80 than 3.50 and those are numbers that suggest a good 5th starter, not the #2 type numbers he has been posting. The Dodgers have decent depth in the rotation, I just see a huge gap between the Ace and the rest of the 4th or 5th starters they have assembled. It should catch up to them!

I think a lot of teams will be interested in buyers but this year's deadline is going to prove to be very interesting with the new CBA in the mix. Teams can't get compensation, and I really don't expect to see a lot of movement as compared to other years.

This is a good take! Things will be different this year! I believe we will see movement yet think it will be more "old school" type movement where GMs will have to trade equal for equal as opposed to the minor league package for a FA-to-be star type deals that have been so common the last decade. In my mind, it will be a nice test for the GMs in MLB and it will take us away from the lazy writers approach of looking at the potential FAs from teams looking to shed payroll and determining who may go where. Time to be really creative!

As this relates to the Dodgers, everyone has been saying they can now and will take on large contracts. First, I do not see this as the reality. First off, if the new ownership ever wants to see a ROI, they simply can not spend like the Yankees, Boston, Philly, the Cubs, LAA or S.F. has been. The other problems are these: the farm system simply does not have talent in the pipeline; if they trade ML talent for ML talent, the net sum really is not impacted much.

The Dodgers will surely be looking to make a splash deal. The fans now expect it. The pressure will be on as they start to fade. This is a recipe for an deal that is not prudent. And, they have to live down the poor deals or decisions they have made lately (Carlos Santana, James McDonald, Russell Martin and to a lesser extent Jonathan Broxton).

I'm actually very curious to see what you see in the Mets. Overall that team just isn't that good. Pythag puts them under .500. Guys like Murphy, Tejada, and even David Wright are having years just like AJ Ellis. RA Dickey is very comparable to what Chris Capuano is doing. The bullpen is a steaming pile of manure. Then comes the question on Santana. He hasn't pitched a full season in 4 years(in regards to an ace making 33-36 starts).

I do not think a whole lot of the Mets. They should slide back to reality. However, as it relates to them facing the Dodgers when they do, this Mets team has been playing good baseball and winning much more than their talent suggests they should (the sign of a good team). I do not see them turning into a poor-playing team or a loser overnight. It will take time for them to get back to the pack. I could be wrong, but the Dodgers hosting the Reds and Mets right before the break with Kemp still out should be a challenge. Much more so than the creampuff schedule they have faced so far. This is all I was trying to say.

The Diamondbacks I don't think had a chance to approach what they did last year in any way. It was neat to think about and I think people wanted to see them as the Rays of the NL but I don't think the talent is there yet.

Did you read my take on the Diamondbacks for 2012, which was written prior to the start of this season?

The Dodgers system has not been that bad. They've made some dumb decisions to wear themselves thin, like trading guys like James McDonald away who have been one of the top 3-5 pitchers in the NL this season, but this statement is just a subjective statement. Each person and every evaluation is going to see those things rather differently.

I will not defend the decisions the Dodgers have made as their track record under Colletti has been poor. However, the McDonald deal is not one I hold against them. This guy was a head case with great stuff that always let you down. And, I am not sold on him in 2012. He has pitched GREAT yet we are only a 1/3 of the way in. I have to think he will come back down to earth a little and I do not see him as a 200 IP, top 10-in-the-league stud horse just yet! I tend to think his ten-cent head will catch up with that million-dollar arm once again.

As far as my take on their farm being subjective or the standard for looking at a farm system as being varied in each person's eyes, I will not disagree. However, I am just looking at what they have sent to MLB lately. After Kemp, Loney, Martin, Broxton, ChadLey, Kershaw and Carlos Santana, what have they been sending us to the Majors the last few years?

I see some decent arms in from the Pen. Other than this, it has been a who's-who of Justin Sellers, Jerry Sands, Alex Castellanos, Elian Herrera and Nathan Eovaldi. Their best prospect in the last few years is Dee Gordon! Sorry, not sold on their minor league system. FanGraphs has them as 23rd in MLB going into 2012 for a reason.

[Old Sweater]

I think the Dodgers are good. Just not nearly as good as they have played for the first 1/3 of the 2012 season.

And, can I mention how useless Pythagorean Record is?

What is it based on? Run Differential! I just don't see this metric having any value.

The Mariners beat the Rangers 21-8 last week, adding a +13 to their RD. They have also beat the Tigers 9-1, the Twins 7-0 and the Rockies 10-3 and the Rangers again 10-3. That is a +42 in five games in which they are 5-0. They are a +1 for the season so Pythag suggest they should be 29-28?

This is a team that struggles to get on base (.297 or 13 in the AL in team OBP), hit (.236 or 13th in the AL in team BA) or hit with much punch (8th in HR - 6th in XBH). They have also not pitched very well. The only thing they do exceptionally well is field. This is not a good team. This is not a team that should be anywhere close to .500 (much less above it as Pythag suggests). Oh, and the team is in last place at 7 games below .500

Check each and every team each and every year. You will find anywhere from 5 to 15 games where there is a blowout beyond the norm. How does this address the usual performance of any given team?

IMO, to look at Pythag, especially when we are 1/3 into a season, is a waste of time.

I don't think the Pythagorean record is worthless.


At 2011 seasons end with real record first, followed by the Pythagorean record

Rays,91-71, 91-71
Orioles,69-93, 67-95
Yankees,97-65, 101-61
Red Sox, 90-72, 94-68
Blue Jays 81-81, 79-83

So out of 5 teams in the AL East their real record is within an average of 12/5=2.4 games per team. I've noticed thru the years that the average is within about 3 games of a teams real record so it has some value. Biggest difference I know of is the 2007 D Backs at a +11 over their Pythagorean record.

What other metric is there that can project within a 3 game average at seasons end?

[PitchingWins]

I don't think the Pythagorean record is worthless.


At 2011 seasons end with real record first, followed by the Pythagorean record

Rays,91-71, 91-71
Orioles,69-93, 67-95
Yankees,97-65, 101-61
Red Sox, 90-72, 94-68
Blue Jays 81-81, 79-83

So out of 5 teams in the AL East their real record is within an average of 12/5=2.4 games per team. I've noticed thru the years that the average is within about 3 games of a teams real record so it has some value. Biggest difference I know of is the 2007 D Backs at a +11 over their Pythagorean record.

What other metric is there that can project within a 3 game average at seasons end?

How does Pythag project? It does not tell us now what a team will do at the end of the year or next month?

It simply looks at a team's run differential and determines what their record "should" be at that moment. It takes into account nothing else. I have given examples of how a teams run differential tells us virtually nothing about how a team has played.

I just do not find it as accurate as you do. Of the 30 teams in MLB, Pythag was within 2 games for 16 of them in 2011. That is a 53% clip, AFTER the season is over!

Let's look at an example for today. The Marlins are 31-23 going into play on 6/5/12. Their Pythag tells us that they are not that good and should be three games worse at 28-26. Because they have only scored 5 more runs all year than they have allowed? It does not consider that this Marlins team is already "a tale of two months" as they got off to a poor start yet hit stride with a scorching May.

The Braves beat them tonight with that 11-0 score... Pythag in all it's brilliant "projecting" tells us that they should be a sub-.500 team when they are actually SEVEN games over and playing .564 baseball and "on pace" for 91 wins?

Not to mention that the Pythag, which is accurate for Atlanta going onto play today (both are 29-25) will account for that 11-0 score by saying the Braves are now "under-performing" because they should have 31 or 32 wins instead of the 30 they now have after the 11-0 blowout? Sorry, I do not see any wisdom in looking at this during the year. After the season is over, it is little more than amusing and I do not see it shedding any light as to which teams over-achieved and which teams under-performed.

To me, Pyhtag is a shade more useful than saying something like: the Braves are the better team than the Giants so far this year because they are 2-1 against the Dodgers while the Giants are 1-2 against the Dodgers and they are 2-1 in IL play against the Rays in Tampa while the Giants are 2-1 in IL play facing the A's at AT&T.

Well, maybe not that extreme yet you get the gist about the usefulness or validity of the Pythagorean Record.

And, as your example from 2007 shows, it does not matter a whole lot if your 90 wins are generally in the close ballgames while maybe 10 or 12 of your losses you got blown out in a "laugh-er."

[PitchingWins]

RA Dickey is very comparable to what Chris Capuano is doing.

Not really.

Capuano's FIP is 1.11 higher than his ERA while R.A. has a 0.62 gap.

Dickey's BABIP of .276 is pretty much dead on what he has been doing since 2010 and it is reasonable to expect him to sustain this whereas Capuano and his .228 BABIP is well below what he done the past couple of years or ever even come closer to posting for a full year. Much less likely he can sustain this.

Dickey gets the ground ball 10% more often than Capuano and his GB% this year and is dead on his career average of inducing the GB while Capuano is doing this (getting a ground ball) at a rate this year that is only slightly worse than what we have seen in his career.

Then, there is the little matter of track record! R.A. Dickey put up a 2.8 WAR in 2010 and a 2.5 WAR last year. It is reasonable to suspect that he could be a 2.5 WAR guy this year. Perhaps, even in line for a career high? Capuano has been a 0.5 WAR and 1.6 WAR guy the last two years, it is reasonable to suspect he will finish somewhere below a 2.0 WAR.

Also worth noting is that Capuano pitched in home run hell at Citi last year (along with Dickey). Check his HR metrics (along with Dickey's) at Citi. The longball should come around to bite him whether he hurls in Chavez Ravine, Petco or AT&T as opposed to Citi. He did not have a very good year at all last year in a very pitcher friendly park. He averaged less than 6 IP per start while giving up a .270 BA.

[RickD]

An angry afternoon in Pittsburgh cost the Los Angeles Dodgers the services of manager Don Mattingly, who will begin a two-game suspension for excessive arguing Saturday night.