Opening Day Lineup

[Mr. Baseball]

Ron Roenicke has neglected to announce the Opening Day lineup for this afternoon. However, JS Online, a reliable source, released the following projection:

1st: Rickie Weeks, 2B
2nd: Carlos Gomez, CF
- Thus confirming speculation that Morgan and Gomez will platoon in 2012.
3rd: Ryan Braun, LF
4th: Aramis Ramirez, 3B
5th: Corey Hart, RF
- He appears fully-recovered from his surgery, and should take the field this afternoon.
6th: Alex Gonzalez, SS
- I'd love an explanation here, because I can't think of one. How can you justify putting a guy with a career .291 OBP ahead of Gamel and LuCroy?
7th: Mat Gamel, 1B
8th: Jonathan LuCroy, C

[Chitown Champ]

My guess is that Roenicke wants a bit more power in the middle of the lineup. Gonzalez has good power for a shortstop, leveling around 20 homers when he gets to play the whole season, which is likely more than what Gamel and Lucroy will hit. He might also want the hitters with less experience at the back of the lineup so that they'll likely get better pitches to hit (speculatively anyways). It looks like he's willing to sacrifice batting average and OBP in order to add the power and experience at the 6th spot.

[Mr. Baseball]

My guess is that Roenicke wants a bit more power in the middle of the lineup. Gonzalez has good power for a shortstop, leveling around 20 homers when he gets to play the whole season, which is likely more than what Gamel and Lucroy will hit. He might also want the hitters with less experience at the back of the lineup so that they'll likely get better pitches to hit (speculatively anyways). It looks like he's willing to sacrifice batting average and OBP in order to add the power and experience at the 6th spot.

Likely more than LuCroy, yes. Although Gamel should hover around 20-25 homers in 2012. He had 28 bombs last season in Triple-A, and that was during a much shorter season. Gonzalez will be lucky to hit 20, as he has only done so twice in his 13-year career. Their power numbers are not compatible -- Gamel's power is one of his most valuable assets.

Found an explanation:

The Brewers are going against Jamie Garcia tonight (lefthander). They're just playing the matchups.

[Chitown Champ]

You can't say Gamel will hit 20-25 homers simply because he did so in the minor leagues. Dan Johnson hit 30 homers in 340 at-bats in AAA 2010. He was later called up in hopes that he'd translate that success; he went on to hit .198 in 111 at-bats. I hate to sound like such a pessimist, but not everyone is able to adjust from minor league ball to major league ball, even if it is from AAA. If the Brewers were going up against a right handed pitcher today, it wouldn't have been such a bad idea to also let Gamel hit lower in the lineup just for him to get used to major league pitching again. You don't want to rush him or get him thinking too much if he does happen to struggle.

[Mr. Baseball]

You can't say Gamel will hit 20-25 homers simply because he did so in the minor leagues. Dan Johnson hit 30 homers in 340 at-bats in AAA 2010. He was later called up in hopes that he'd translate that success; he went on to hit .198 in 111 at-bats. I hate to sound like such a pessimist, but not everyone is able to adjust from minor league ball to major league ball, even if it is from AAA. If the Brewers were going up against a right handed pitcher today, it wouldn't have been such a bad idea to also let Gamel hit lower in the lineup just for him to get used to major league pitching again. You don't want to rush him or get him thinking too much if he does happen to struggle.

When did I say Gamel WILL hit 20-25 home runs? I said he should hover around it. Evidently, there is a very real chance he won't reach that milestone. But there's also a very good chance he will. Based on the projections and analysis I've reviewed, the odds are in his favor. Minor League success doesn't always transfer to the Major League's, but it does more often than not.

If he stays healthy, I'd be shocked if he fell below 20. ESPN even projected Gamel as a breakout player, and If I remember correctly, they had him hitting 26 bombs.

[Mr. Baseball]

Also, Gamel's 28 HR with Nashville was in just 128 Games. My math isn't great, but I'd say at a Major League rate, that puts him near 33 (if he stays healthy). I subtracted 13 home runs to compensate for the skill differential, and came up with 20.

[Chitown Champ]

I don't disagree with you on Gamel's power. I know he has talent, I know he has ability, I know he has potential. I'm just saying that putting him in the 7th hole for now may not be such a bad idea in order to try to further develop him. If he performs well, then the Brewers can move him up. It's much safer to put him lower for the time being and not risk the chance that he struggles, over-thinks, then eats himself into a hole. I think there's a better chance that he sees more hittable pitches lower in the lineup.

[dabynsky]

Nashville is also in a notoriously hitter friendly league.

[CoreyR]

I think Alex Gonzales in the 6th spot makes sense. He's had a rock solid spring, why throw him at the bottom of the lineup when he's hot?