Will Ichiro reach 3000 hits?

[PitchingWins]

I think he will not reach this milestone.

Living in Portland, Oregon when this guy came up I had the chance to watch him every day and I have always admired and loved his game. Not too sure I like what he adds or detracts from the clubhouse yet there is no questioning that he is a first-ballot Hall of Fame guy and plays the game the way it should be played.

That said, I look at the skill set that got him his hits so far: eye-hand coordination and foot speed. I look at the opportunity that he got as a leadoff hitter.

First, as he ages, I do not think he gets the PAs the next 3 to 4 years that he has gotten so far. Second, as players age their eye-hand coordination wanes. Third, he is getting slower.

Ichiro has how many infield hits in his career? I will look it up after this post. The point is that I look for that number to sharply decline along with his bat getting slower and his PAs to diminish. This combination will keep him from reaching 3000.

JMO

[PitchingWins]

Going into 2011, Ichiro had 516 Infield Hits for his career. I can not find the number of Infield Hits he had in 2011.

Again, my presumption is that Ichiro will see a steep decline in these types of hits (arguably his bread and butter) as his eye-hand skills diminish and he loses a step or three. Factor this in with a decline in PAs and this is why I predict he will not reach 3000.

http://o.seattletimes.nwsource.com/h...re-invent.html

[Cathy]

His future is uncertain

[RickD]

His future is uncertain

Sounds like a bad fortune cookie!

Seriously though, if he leaves the lead off spot, I just don't see this happening.

[nebo86]

Sounds like a bad fortune cookie!

Seriously though, if he leaves the lead off spot, I just don't see this happening.

Do you think that he will change his approach if removed from the lead off spot? Will he earn the lead off spot back if he goes off on one of his hot streaks?

[RickD]

I don't see him changing his approach, but he will get less at bats if not in the lead off position. If he goes on a hot streak, they'd probably leave him where he is since he is on a hot streak.

[Old Sweater]

Going into 2011, Ichiro had 516 Infield Hits for his career. I can not find the number of Infield Hits he had in 2011.

Again, my presumption is that Ichiro will see a steep decline in these types of hits (arguably his bread and butter) as his eye-hand skills diminish and he loses a step or three. Factor this in with a decline in PAs and this is why I predict he will not reach 3000.

http://o.seattletimes.nwsource.com/h...re-invent.html

Ichiro had 42 infield hits in 2011 bringing his total to 567 for his career @ BR. That comes out to 51.5 a season for 11 years. Then he was 40 outta 47 in SB's so he can still pick them up and put them down. Myself I think the weak hitting team as a whole in 2011 is more of a factor then decline at this point in Ichiro's career. He ain't very picky at the plate and there was no one behind him or any Mariner for protection in the lineup last year, so teams sure ain't going to give him good pitches to hit.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...&year=2011&t=b

[astrosfanatic]

Ichiro had 42 infield hits in 2011 bringing his total to 567 for his career @ BR. That comes out to 51.5 a season for 11 years. Then he was 40 outta 47 in SB's so he can still pick them up and put them down. Myself I think the weak hitting team as a whole in 2011 is more of a factor then decline at this point in Ichiro's career. He ain't very picky at the plate and there was no one behind him or any Mariner for protection in the lineup last year, so teams sure ain't going to give him good pitches to hit.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...&year=2011&t=b

Exactly. Look at guys like Rickey and Rose who were similar types of hitters. They tried to put the ball in play and let their legs do the work. They both played 20+ seasons and well into their 40's. Ichiro's skill set is one that translates well with age. He is an extremely smart baseball player, and that too will allow him to age well. If you cant outrun 'em, then outsmart 'em.

Ichiro will get his 3,000 hits. And the shame of it is, if he would have played in the MLB from age 21 or 22, we could possibly be talking about whether he was going to end up the all-time hits leader....Pete Rose dodged a bullet here...

[nebo86]

Exactly. Look at guys like Rickey and Rose who were similar types of hitters. They tried to put the ball in play and let their legs do the work. They both played 20+ seasons and well into their 40's. Ichiro's skill set is one that translates well with age. He is an extremely smart baseball player, and that too will allow him to age well. If you cant outrun 'em, then outsmart 'em.

Ichiro will get his 3,000 hits. And the shame of it is, if he would have played in the MLB from age 21 or 22, we could possibly be talking about whether he was going to end up the all-time hits leader....Pete Rose dodged a bullet here...

I agree, Ichiro needs to stay healthy and it will be just a matter of time. Do you think that he'll get to 3000 in a Mariners uniform?

[WilsonC]

At this point, I'd put him at 50%.

A lot will depend on how he does in 2012, really. If he rebounds at least somewhat from his down 2011, I'd say his chances will become excellent - it would put him within about 400 hits and would pretty much guarantee him another year as an everyday player. That would put him at the point where he could likely collect the remaining hits even if he declines to the point where he's no longer a full-time player.

If 2011 turns out to be the start of a decline rather than an outlier, though he'll become a long shot. Another .270 season could put him into the year-to-year category, and it could become harder to scrounge out enough playing time.

It also wouldn't surprise me to see him move past the milestone easily, without even having to stick around past his usefulness. His type of skillset often ages well. His speed and contact numbers in 2011 were consistent with his career rates, so I'm not convinced if there's much of a real decline despite his off 2011 and advancing age.