Zach Greinke so far

[yankeebiscuitfan]

I wonder what you guys think of Zach Greinke so far this season?

I have seen him pitch only two games this season, so maybe that is not enough to tell, but in those two games he did not really impress me. I am watching a rerun of last night's game vs Colorado and in that game he looks like a nervous little duck.

I think that his ERA proves my statement. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[WilsonC]

Looking purely at the numbers, I'd say he's pitched a whole lot better than his effectiveness to date indicates. His K/BB rate is about 12/2, which is Curt-Schilling-Prime good, and ultimately his ERA seems to be mostly a product of rates that most pitchers have less control over - BABIP, strand rate, HR/FB rate. If he changes nothing about the way he's been pitching, it wouldn't surprise me if he's one of the five or so best pitchers in baseball over the remainder of the season.

[yankeebiscuitfan]

So apparently I am wrong

You say that pitchers don't have much control about their ERA. I don't really get that. If a fielder makes an error the pitcher won't be charged for it. But if a run is scored on a couple of basehits the pitcher is, so to that extend I would say that he is perfectly responsible for his own ERA. Sure there is more to pitching stats than ERA, but I think it is one of a couple of good indicators.

[Scoobean]

The pitcher has to have control of what his ERA is. He is the one that is making the pitches and putting the ball in the wrong spot to get hit well. If a player on the field makes an error the pitcher then does not get charged with an earned run. Ultimately it is the pitchers responsibility to go out there and make quality pitches. If he can do that on a consistent basis his ERA will be low if not it will be high.

[Mudge]

If his background history is accurate, Greinke's issues are more mental than mechanical.

He's a damn fine pitcher, but he is mercurial, especially when the pressure is on. It is little wonder that his worst two outings this year (by far) occurred at Wrigley Field and Yankee Stadium.

[Baseballnum3er0]

So apparently I am wrong

You say that pitchers don't have much control about their ERA. I don't really get that. If a fielder makes an error the pitcher won't be charged for it. But if a run is scored on a couple of basehits the pitcher is, so to that extend I would say that he is perfectly responsible for his own ERA. Sure there is more to pitching stats than ERA, but I think it is one of a couple of good indicators.

He's saying parts of a persons ERA you do not have control over. Such as a high BABIP indicates that when contact is made players are getting hits more often than average, usually an indicator that a pitcher has been unlucky and is likely to improve their numbers. Strand rate is a similar thing, obviously if a pitcher doesn't strand runners then they will get more runs scored on them than the pitcher that does strand a lot of runners. However, I prefer to use strand rate to prove the counter of this argument that a pitcher will regress, but it still can be an indicator that a pitcher will in prove. HR/FB rate is another thing that can indicate that a pitcher is getting more fly balls hit out of the ballpark than the average, another sign that their ERA should decrease.

So in a nutshell, a pitcher does have control over their ERA to some extent. But you also have factors such as small vs large ballparks and also the defense behind them. Just to clarify what I mean by defense is I'm talking about range more than anything, obviously if a pitcher has a team that sucks up nearly any ball in play with amazing defense they will get less runs scored on them than the next guy. Hence, sometimes there are better determiners of how a pitcher has been pitching than ERA(see FIP and xFIP to account for defense and an abnormal amount of home runs).

The gist of Greinke's season is this. His HR/FB is 6.5% higher than his career average. His left on base percentage is 15.6% lower than his career average. His BABIP is .034 higher than his career average. All of this indicates that to this point Greinke has been pitching better than the ERA may indicate. I agree with Wilson, I would not be at all suprised to see Grienke be one of the top pitchers in baseball from here on out, as once the numbers start to even out as they usually do I would expect to see a considerable improvement in his stats.

Given, these stats are not perfect, however, they have shown to be decent indicators of regression and improvement of pitchers in the past. I encourage you to read the link below to get a better picture of what I am trying to say.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...catch-a-break/

[Old Sweater]

Done his job against the Rockies yesterday, I believe it was 6 innings with no earned runs allowed at Coors Field, a place that even the great Greg Maddux tried to avoid by switching his start slot if there was a off day before a trip to Denver.

[Brew Crew]

I think he fits in great as a piece of the starting rotation. Guys like Marcum and Gallardo make him better as well as he makes Gallardo and Marcum better. If he was in this rotation and had to be at the top of it and be the stopper, I think he would be less effective.