astrosfanatic

Originally Posted by astrosfanatic

Starting Pitchers Pt. 2

Lets continue. Shall we?

16) Ian Kennedy (69.75) – A lot of people are going to find reasons not to draft Kennedy. Maybe they will point to his inexperience or ballpark he calls home. His 2011 season was one of the best tat franchise has seen. He held hitters to a .141 average with RISP. He also showed great control, the ability to strike out batters, and held hitters to a miniscule .227 average. At pick 70, I am buying.

17) Yovani Gallardo (50.09) – He finally brought his BB/9 down to a reasonable level (2.56). It’s not great, but it finally meant that Gallarado’s WHIP didn’t kill your team last year. If he can maintain that control, then he can be considered an ace. However, I will believe it when I see it happen twice.

18) Stephen Strasburg (62.71) – I will not draft him, but you can. In Head 2 Head leagues consider that he will likely not be pitching in September. That innings cap on top of the still remaining injury concerns tells me not to take a chance on him this year. In keeper leagues I would be more likely to take the chance, but not just for this year.

19) Mat Latos (71.25) – The move to the Great American Ballpark scares me too. But he held batters to a .233 average last year and has room to improve with his BB/9. Playing for a better team, he will be a better source of Wins, so I think the move evens itself out.

20) Josh Beckett (91.84) – It was good to see him rebound last year. A .245 BABIP had a lot to do with that, but he did lower his BB/9 considerably which was something that is under his control. I think at 91, he would be a great value. I wouldn’t reach for him expecting last year’s numbers though.

21) Josh Johnson (98.67) – Injuries. He has the potential to be a top 10 talent, but injuries have killed him, and his fantasy owners, the past 2 years. He says he is 100% healthy going into camp. If you are the gambling type, there is a ton of value to be had in a healthy JJ at pick 98.

22) Yu Darvish (120.40) – I think we have all finally learned our lesson on ‘cant-miss’ Japanese all-stars. Still, he will likely go higher than 120 because of the awesome potential he has on your team. He has an excellent curve to match with his upper 90’s fastball. He is going to be a strikeout pitcher. My only question is his durability.

23) James Shields (67.27) – He was flat out unhittable last year. A .258 BABIP that is 40 points below his career norm has a lot to do with that. There will be some regression here, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat of 2010.

24) Dan Hudson (85.83) – A solid walk rate (2.03) helped him keep things going okay in his sophomore season. He is still learning how to use his off-speed pitches. When he does match those up with his great fastball, he could be a great pitcher for the D-Backs.

25) Matt Garza (109.83)- The move to the NL really benefited Garza. His k/9 last year jumped to 8.95. He is hittable which will keep his WHIP from ever being considered very good, but his K’s will more than make up for that.

26) Jordan Zimmerman (120.09) – He has excellent control and is pitching for an up-and-coming Nationals squad. Buy low, because his stock will rise.

27) C.J. Wilson (86.24) – A new team, but I would expect the same results. His high K/9 (8.3) and low Hits/9 (7.7) make him an attractive pick. He could easily put up the same kind of numbers as guys listed in the top 10 of our rankings.

28) Ricky Romero (87.13) – I don’t even know why I have him on the list. His ADP suggests he should be? His .247 BABIP and 4.37 FIP suggest that his 2.92 ERA last year was an outlier. He should be closer to 3.30 or 3.50. And with only a K/9 around 7, there’s no way I draft him ahead of Garza or Beachy.

29) Brandon McCarthy (204.18) – Here is a sneaky pick for you. McCarthy had 8 wins and a 1.07 WHIP after the All-Star break last year. And at 204, his value on draft day would be enormous. This is what I meant when I said that SP is deep this year.

30) Brandon Beachy (115.58) – Beachy is going to be a trendy pick and chances are he doesn’t fall to 115 in your league. Yes, his 10.74 K/9 last year was impressive, and yes it does line up with his minor league stats.

Honorable Mentions: Tommy Hanson, Adam Wainwright, Johnny Cueto, Chris Carpenter, Matt Moore, Brandon Beachy, Shaun Marcum, Gio Gonzalez

Just take a look at the names I left off the list and you can see why I keep saying that starting pitching is so deep this year. Ricky Romero, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez are 3 guys I wont be drafting this year. Jordan Zimmerman, Brandon McCarthy, and Ian Kennedy are 3 guys that I am really high on when considering their ADP and likeliness to outperform it. CJ Wilson and Matt Garza are the 2 on this list most likely to repeat their 2011 stat-line. Good luck navigating the minefield on draft day!

-AF