I have been playing fantasy baseball for about 10 years now, and I have done a variety of leagues. Most are traditional leagues, and a few have been out of the ordinary. I have always enjoyed one part of each season more than any others: the draft. So much goes on in the two hours it takes to draft that has such a profound effect on the season’s end-result.

Your league can’t be won on draft day, but it certainly can be lost. For that reason, many people have strained for hours trying to perfect rankings and develop draft day strategies that put them heads and feet above the rest. Last year, I had a radical idea that I thought would make my team the best it could be given the circumstances.

I was part of an 11-team keeper league. We got to keep 6 players from the previous year’s team, and then this year we get to keep 7. I finished 5th place in the inaugural year due to just an average team honestly. The worst part was that Adam Wainwright went down with Tommy John surgery at the end of that year, which completely devastated me. I was counting on him as the ace of my staff for the next 3-4 years. I was going to keep him along with 5 hitters and be ready for the next season.

So now, I was left with a pitching staff devoid of any quality keeping options. I had Dan Haren, but he was coming off a slightly disappointing year, and I don’t like to take chances when it comes to keepers unless it is taking a chance on prospects. So I had a crazy idea. What if I kept 6 hitters (I felt like I had 6 good keepers on that side of the ball) and then drafted like 6 closers in the draft?

It seemed like a genius strategy. I would be starting off with a presumably stronger offense than other teams due to keeping 6 hitters, and then I would have a great chance at winning SV, ERA, and WHIP. Sure, I would lose Wins and K’s, but 33 points for wins and 2 points for losses would total 35 points. Divided by 5, that comes to an average of 7 points from each category. Pair that with a strong showing in the offensive categories, and I could easily be looking at a top 3 finish!

It seemed too good to be true! And as I soon found out, it actually was. Anyways, I decided to keep my 6 best hitters: Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, Andre Ethier (don’t judge), Jose Reyes, Mike Stanton, and Kendrys Morales. I know you just read those 6 names and cringed a little bit because we all know that 4 of those 6 guys were complete flops in 2011. Then in the draft I got a hold of Joakim Soria, Jose Valverde, JJ Putz, Houston Street, Brandon Lyon, and Joe Nathan.

Hindsight is always 20-20, and if I would have known that 4 of those 6 hitters would have fallen on their faces this last year I wouldn’t have even tried this crazy strategy. It didn’t help that Lyon, Nathan and Soria underperformed as well. As it was, I finished at the bottom of every offensive scoring category except steals last year. And finished dead last in the league. Sad story, right?

Well, there is a silver lining here. The only good thing about a bad team that has 6 closers and a horrible, underachieving offense is that closers are always marketable on the trade front, and Crawford still had some trade value for someone hoping for a second-half comeback. I took everyone except for Stanton and formed trades to acquire Prince Fielder, Carlos Gonzalez, Zach Greinke, and Eric Hosmer. Then I carefully scoured the waiver wire to pick up Madison Bumgarner and Brett Lawrie, so now my keeper situation looks extremely solid going into 2012.

My up and down year last year goes to show that season’s can be lost on draft day if you don’t plan effectively. The lesson I learned is that it is NEVER a good idea to punt categories. Never. And just when you think you can, just don’t. I somehow managed to correct my horrible, horrible mistakes, but you might not be as lucky. As it is, I have the first pick in this year’s draft to go along with a solid core of 7 players. I will definitely not be drafting 6 closers this year.


-AF

Player A .258 BA 29 HR 91 RBI 82 R 7 SB

Player B .307 BA 26 HR 101 RBI 97 R 9 SB

Take a look at those 2 players stat lines.

I think we would all agree that we would much rather have player B on our fantasy team. He hits for a clearly better average and his counting stats are also a bit more elevated. I say a bit, because player A does have an advantage in HR.

As you can imagine, there is one catch here. Player A has an ADP of 191 and Player B has an ADP of 37 according to mockdraftcentral.com. That comes out to a difference of 154 picks or 12 full rounds for those of you in 12 team leagues. You might now be thinking, why the heck would a player like Player A be going that far down the draft?? Here’s the answer:

You see, not all players past years are created equal. Fantasy baseball only focuses on stats and sometimes can miss out on the on-the-field aspect of the game. Player A has not really been given a full season (not until last year at least) to show off his stuff. Going into 2012 he will be the clear starter in likely the best line-up he’s seen to this date. You might have guessed it by now, his name is Josh Willingham. Those stats I pulled are his 3-year averages adjusted to 550 AB for each season. If he would have had 550 AB, that would have been his production the last 3 years. That’s important, because he will be hitting in the middle of the Twins line-up this year with Mauer and Revere hitting ahead of him.

Who is player B then? Matt Holliday. He has been a perennial All-Star and isn’t being over-drafted at the 37th pick. But he has hit in the middle of a line-up that has included Albert Pujols for the last 3 years and added Lance Berkman just last year. Willingham hasn’t enjoyed that luxury in Washington or Oakland. That doesn’t change the fact that Willingham is likely a better value at 191 than Holliday is at 37.

When drafting, keep players like Willingham in mind. There will always be players whose playing time is likely to be increased. Conversely, there will be aging veterans whose playing time is likely to be decreased. If you take a little time to do some research on these type of players, it can be the difference in 4th place and 1st place in your league.

Stay thirsty my friends

-AF

Everyone has their own strategy when it comes to closers. It is the most volatile position in fantasy baseball. Some like to draft the elite closers early to ensure dominance. I will say that in a head to head league, that might not be a bad idea since they account for 1/10th of the weekly score. Some people like to wait until late and snag what’s left. Some even punt the saves category all together to load up in other areas. I will say that I believe it is never a good idea to punt a category in rotisserie scoring leagues. If you punt just one category, you need to win two others just to make up for that one. Head to head scoring, I think it is a viable strategy as long as you don’t waste your picks.

All of that being said, here are the relief pitcher rankings this season. Age was taken into account, as well as quality of the team they play for. I pretty much ignore ballpark factors since they only pitch one inning. Enjoy, and as always feel free to comment.

1) Craig Kimbrel – Clearly the best relief pitcher this year. His K-rate might drop a bit, but he will still be a dominant closer for years to come.

2) Mariano Rivera – Another year, another dominating performance. It doesn’t get any better than Mo. The only reason he isn’t number one is because of his retirement talks and his age.

3) John Axford – The Brewers found themselves a good closer.

4) Jonathan Papelbon - In 2011, he got his walk rate fixed from where it had been the previous 2 years. If he maintains that improvement, his numbers last year proved him to be a dominant closer. A switch to the NL from the AL East will also be welcomed by Papelbon i am sure

5) Drew Storen – His control concerns me, but he held on to the job last year down the stretch. There are other good options behind him in the Nats pen, so he needs to improve that control.

6) Joel Hanrahan – He had an outstanding year last year, but he plays for the Pirates.

7) Kenley Jansen – He will be the Dodger’s closer this year. I bet he is by the All-Star break. His K’s alone make him worth the roster spot.

8) Ryan Madson – He will be playing for a good team that will give him enough opportunities to rack up 35+ saves.

9) Jason Motte – He was flat out amazing last year, and he will come later in drafts because of the lack of name recognition. A sub-1.00 WHIP is sexy if it comes with 35 saves.

10) Brian Wilson – Health concerns knock him down a bit this year, but when healthy he has great stuff and plenty of opportunities

11 ) J.J. Putz – He was an under the radar pick last year. This year, he wont come quite as cheap. Last year wasn’t a fluke, you just have to wonder about his health.

12) Joakim Soria – A couple of disappointing years have knocked his stock down a bit. He still has the talent and is playing for an improving Royals team.

13) Brandon League – Nobody noticed his sub-3.00 ERA last year because he plays in Seattle, but he was outstanding. The Mariners wont be blowing out teams this year, so he should rack up 30+ saves.

14) Jose Valverde – Solid and reliable. He will have plenty of opportunities and his ERA/WHIP will be average. He K’s one an inning, so that makes him completely average all the way around.

15) Heath Bell – We will get to see how he performs away from the friendly confines of Petco Park. I don’t expect a huge drop-off, but you always worry when Padres pitchers go elsewhere.

16) Sergio Santos – Toronto will be a good fit for him. Expect much of what he did last year.

17) Andrew Bailey – Injury risk, not to mention there are closing options ready to go behind him in Melancon, Bard, and Jenks. If healthy, he is the best man for the job and will have tons of save opportunities.

18) Jordan Walden – When he learns how to stay in the strike zone consistently with his fastball, he could become a dominant closer. As is, he is good, young and will bring more than 1 K per IP.

19) Rafael Betancourt – He showed at the end of the year that he was more than capable of handling the closer’s role. A lack of viable options behind him help his job security.

20) Joe Nathan – I see him as being this year’s JJ Putz. He was a dominant closing force in year’s past that’s going to be relatively healthy this year. He’s the man in Texas, and will have plenty of save opportunities.

Honorable Mentions: Huston Street, Kyle Farnsworth, Jim Johnson, Chris Perez

Lets continue. Shall we?

16) Ian Kennedy (69.75) – A lot of people are going to find reasons not to draft Kennedy. Maybe they will point to his inexperience or ballpark he calls home. His 2011 season was one of the best tat franchise has seen. He held hitters to a .141 average with RISP. He also showed great control, the ability to strike out batters, and held hitters to a miniscule .227 average. At pick 70, I am buying.

17) Yovani Gallardo (50.09) – He finally brought his BB/9 down to a reasonable level (2.56). It’s not great, but it finally meant that Gallarado’s WHIP didn’t kill your team last year. If he can maintain that control, then he can be considered an ace. However, I will believe it when I see it happen twice.

18) Stephen Strasburg (62.71) – I will not draft him, but you can. In Head 2 Head leagues consider that he will likely not be pitching in September. That innings cap on top of the still remaining injury concerns tells me not to take a chance on him this year. In keeper leagues I would be more likely to take the chance, but not just for this year.

19) Mat Latos (71.25) – The move to the Great American Ballpark scares me too. But he held batters to a .233 average last year and has room to improve with his BB/9. Playing for a better team, he will be a better source of Wins, so I think the move evens itself out.

20) Josh Beckett (91.84) – It was good to see him rebound last year. A .245 BABIP had a lot to do with that, but he did lower his BB/9 considerably which was something that is under his control. I think at 91, he would be a great value. I wouldn’t reach for him expecting last year’s numbers though.

21) Josh Johnson (98.67) – Injuries. He has the potential to be a top 10 talent, but injuries have killed him, and his fantasy owners, the past 2 years. He says he is 100% healthy going into camp. If you are the gambling type, there is a ton of value to be had in a healthy JJ at pick 98.

22) Yu Darvish (120.40) – I think we have all finally learned our lesson on ‘cant-miss’ Japanese all-stars. Still, he will likely go higher than 120 because of the awesome potential he has on your team. He has an excellent curve to match with his upper 90’s fastball. He is going to be a strikeout pitcher. My only question is his durability.

23) James Shields (67.27) – He was flat out unhittable last year. A .258 BABIP that is 40 points below his career norm has a lot to do with that. There will be some regression here, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat of 2010.

24) Dan Hudson (85.83) – A solid walk rate (2.03) helped him keep things going okay in his sophomore season. He is still learning how to use his off-speed pitches. When he does match those up with his great fastball, he could be a great pitcher for the D-Backs.

25) Matt Garza (109.83)- The move to the NL really benefited Garza. His k/9 last year jumped to 8.95. He is hittable which will keep his WHIP from ever being considered very good, but his K’s will more than make up for that.

26) Jordan Zimmerman (120.09) – He has excellent control and is pitching for an up-and-coming Nationals squad. Buy low, because his stock will rise.

27) C.J. Wilson (86.24) – A new team, but I would expect the same results. His high K/9 (8.3) and low Hits/9 (7.7) make him an attractive pick. He could easily put up the same kind of numbers as guys listed in the top 10 of our rankings.

28) Ricky Romero (87.13) – I don’t even know why I have him on the list. His ADP suggests he should be? His .247 BABIP and 4.37 FIP suggest that his 2.92 ERA last year was an outlier. He should be closer to 3.30 or 3.50. And with only a K/9 around 7, there’s no way I draft him ahead of Garza or Beachy.

29) Brandon McCarthy (204.18) – Here is a sneaky pick for you. McCarthy had 8 wins and a 1.07 WHIP after the All-Star break last year. And at 204, his value on draft day would be enormous. This is what I meant when I said that SP is deep this year.

30) Brandon Beachy (115.58) – Beachy is going to be a trendy pick and chances are he doesn’t fall to 115 in your league. Yes, his 10.74 K/9 last year was impressive, and yes it does line up with his minor league stats.

Honorable Mentions: Tommy Hanson, Adam Wainwright, Johnny Cueto, Chris Carpenter, Matt Moore, Brandon Beachy, Shaun Marcum, Gio Gonzalez

Just take a look at the names I left off the list and you can see why I keep saying that starting pitching is so deep this year. Ricky Romero, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez are 3 guys I wont be drafting this year. Jordan Zimmerman, Brandon McCarthy, and Ian Kennedy are 3 guys that I am really high on when considering their ADP and likeliness to outperform it. CJ Wilson and Matt Garza are the 2 on this list most likely to repeat their 2011 stat-line. Good luck navigating the minefield on draft day!

-AF

Ok, so I have put some thought into this, and here’s what I think makes outfielders so tricky to rank. With other positions, there is a typical expectation for performance. For example, corner infielders are expected to provide power and run production. Middle infielders are expected to score runs, hit for a good average, and maybe steal bases. With outfielders, there is such a variety of skill sets, that it is hard to rank one over the other. Michael Bourn wont hit for double digit HR, which kills your teams power, but how much of that deficit will be made up by the 60 SB?? That’s what makes ranking OF so tricky. My list reflects my preferences in outfielders. I prefer balanced hitters over specialists. All that being said, here is the outfield continued through 30.

16) Ryan Braun (28.19) – Ok, so I feel kind of bad having him ranked so low at this point. As others have mentioned, 110 games of Ryan Braun matched with 50 games of a replacement level player are likely to combine for a top 10 OF. That is very true in roto scoring leagues. If you are in a head to head scoring league however, that strategy wont work out as well. Braun will come at a discount if you draft him early, but the first 6 weeks of the season could be rough for your team. His numbers from last year over 110 games look like this: 24 HR / 81 RBI / 80 R / 24 SB. Not that bad. I will say that it is unlikely that he steals as many bases this year. His number last year was about double what he normally steals. Tough call here.

17) Nelson Cruz (49.52) – If Nelson Cruz stays healthy, I will look like an idiot for having him ranked this low. If you prorate the average of his last 3 injury-shortened years to a full season, you are looking at 34 HR, 99 RBI, and 18 SB. That would be enough for me to draft him as a top 10 OF. He hasn’t had a healthy season yet, so I wouldn’t bank on it this year.

18) Michael Bourn (56.53) – He has averaged 58 SB the last 3 years and has established himself as the elite fantasy option in that regard. His batting average is driven by a high BABIP, but that is not uncommon among speedy players. He will contribute in 3 categories and be a zero in HR and RBI. It’s for that reason, he will be at the tail end of the great options in the OF for me. There will be a lot of players

19) Desmond Jennings (56.10) – The promise is there. In keeper leagues, he will go as high as the 3rd round, but in most leagues the 4th or 5th is most likely. That is a high price to pay for a guy with 268 major league at-bats. I would expect his HR total to be anywhere from 10-15. The SB production will be there no matter what, and 40ish SB makes him worth a gamble if for that reason alone. I think risks are inherently necessary, I just don’t like to take them in the first 5 rounds when the talent pool is so loaded.

20) Mike Morse (78.80) – Morse will also be 1B eligible in leagues, but most of his value might be as an OF. His power last year was legit.

21) Shane Victorino (75.26) – The Flyin’ Hawaiian will be a solid contributor in al 5 scoring categories. He is a 15-20 guy at his worst, and a 20-30 guy at his best.

22) Carl Crawford (39.89) – Bobby Valentine just announced that Crawford will be “out for a few weeks” as he recovers from a wrist injury. That doesn’t sound promising to me. After a beyond horrible year last year, it is just hard to buy high on Crawford. Then consider, his ADP has him going in the 4th round, and I say stay away. With the latest news his ADP is likely to slip, but he will still be a risky pick.

23) BJ Upton (67.47) – Upton would be ranked much higher on my board if I had any inkling of hope that he wouldn’t kill my batting average. His SB totals the past years partnered with his increasing HR totals make him a very promising player. However, his sub .250 average is a drain. Most of his AB’s last year came from the 5th-6th holes in the line-up. With the addition of Pena, the Rays might feel more comfortable hitting him second behind Jennings. That would increase his value in my mind.

24) Michael Cuddyer (95.41) – I like Cuddyer’s move to Coors Field. The 20 HR he hit at Target field could easily turn into 25-30 in that hitter’s park. In a few leagues, his 17 GP at second base might give him eligibility there. If that is the case, I would move him up the list. Also, i think he is a dark horse to have 100+ RBI.

25) Ben Zobrist (80.63) – I have already profiled Zobrist in the 2B. Most of his value would come at 2B, but his OF eligibility would allow for some flexibility.

26) Nick Markakis (124.43) – Last year was a disappointing year for Markakis. His value would be helped a lot by being on a good team, but he plays for the Orioles. His counting stats will likely be low, but he should be in the double-digits in SB and HR with a solid batting average. He would be a good 3rd OF.

27) Jayson Heyward (106.15) – His sophomore slump has quieted the hype that once surrounded the top prospect. He is a good buy-low candidate as he is slipping past the 100th pick, and he has the ability to be a solid #2 OF.

28) Nick Swisher (123.02) – Slow and steady. In OBP leagues, his value is even greater because of his high walk rates. He is going to score and drive in more than 80 runs with 20-25 HR. That’s strong contribution in 3 categories. His batting average isn’t likely to help your team or really handicap your team either. I always favor players on good offenses, and Swisher fits that profile.

29) Andre Ethier (134.99) – Another buy-low candidate, Ethier (when healthy) will hit for a high average with 20 or so HR. I don’t like the line-up he hits in, or the stadium, but he will be hitting in the middle of the line-up which helps. He would be a good 3rd OF to target.

30) Ichiro Suzuki (104.12) – Getting old. Still, he was one of only 8 guys last year to steal 40 bases. Rumors have him moving out of the lead-off spot to accommodate Dustin Ackley, but he will still likely hit 2nd and score a lot of runs. His skill set as a hitter is one that really ages pretty well, so even though he is getting up there in years, he still has value to a fantasy squad looking to improve their batting average. Avoid him like the plague in leagues that count OPS.

Honorable Mentions: Jayson Werth, Peter Bourjos, Logan Morrison, Drew Stubbs, Brett Gardner

Alright, like I said, it is hard to rank OF because of the varying skill sets you can find at this position. Like I said earlier, I prefer a balanced roster rather than relying on a Bourn, Gordon, or Gardner to carry me in one category. That strategy leaves you open to really being hurt by injuries. If Bourn goes down with a sore hamstring and never fully recovers this season, you would have passed up on guys like Nelson Cruz or BJ Upton that could have been positive impacts on multiple categories. It’s your call.

For deeper leagues, some sleepers you might want to consider would be Michael Brantley, Lorenzo Cain, Brandon Belt, and Lucas Duda. Belt is a guy I am keeping a close eye on in Spring Training. If he wins the 1B spot, his power numbers could be useful for a 5th OF.

-AF

Now on to the pitching side of things. Starting pitching is so incredibly deep this year, that it really is going to affect my drafting strategy. Any one of these top 15 guys could be considered an ace on your team, and there is enough depth in the position to form a nice staff around them.

I will start off by saying that I value a good hitter over a good pitcher on draft day. There seems to be a lot more good pitchers that appear mid-season than there are hitters that come out of nowhere. Ryan Vogelsong last year comes to mind. So, with that in mind, I rarely reach for a pitcher unless I think there is a lot of value in the pick. For example, if Verlander or Halladay somehow makes it to me in round 3, then I think there is a lot of value in that pick and I might take him.

Looking at ADP, most of the guys in the top 15 are going to cost you one of your first 4 picks. That is a tough choice to make. Pitchers also tend to be more injury-prone. And losing out to injury on your 3rd round pick when you could have had Josh Hamilton or Jay Bruce would really suck. In the top 15, I like Greinke or Bumgarner the most based on ADP alone. If I could wait until the 6th round and get Bumgarner, then I think it might be better to use those first 5 picks on hitters. But again, this all goes back to how I value pitching.

So I guess I should let you make the decision. Here is how I view starting pitching in 2012:


1) Clayton Kershaw (15.55) – He won the NL pitching Triple Crown in 2011, cut his walk-rate by a one full walk/9, and was a work-horse pitching 233 innings. Don’t forget the 1.06 K/IP. He is only 24, and is still getting better.

2) Roy Halladay (14.99) – At age 35, Doc is showing no signs of slowing down. His 2011 was pretty much the same as his 2010. He plays for a team that will win a lot of games, and thus he will come close, if not eclipsing, to the 20 W’s that you are hoping for. Walks nobody, strikes out a ton, and plays for a good team. Winning.

3) Justin Verlander (8.65) – Verlander’s 2011 was simply amazing, and yet I still have a hard time drafting him ahead of the other two. A 0.92 WHIP in 251 IP roughly accounts for an eighth of your IP in leagues that max out at 1600 IP a year. That’s invaluable. The reason I have him 3rd is that he tends to be an on or off pitcher. If he gets on a roll, he is easily the best in the game, but he also has his down-streaks. If he really is going in the first round, I say wait for the previous two guys mentioned.

4) Cole Hamels (31.42) – He’s going to strike out close to a batter every inning, has a great K:BB ratio, and only had a 0.99 WHIP in 216 IP last year. I think a lot of people undervalue him because he is the 3rd best SP on his team. But if he is really being drafted behind Lincecum and Hernandez, then that’s crazy.

5) Cliff Lee (20.16) – Lee could easily be flopped with Hamels. He is 5 years older, which is why I slot him after. That said, his delivery is so easy and repeatable that he should age fairly well. He went 7-1 with a 0.93 ERA over his last 10 starts. Amazing.

6) Felix Hernandez (26.96) – His name is going to have him drafted higher than I would care for. He was more hittable last year due to a high BABIP-against. When that normalizes, he will be closer to a 3.00 ERA and his WHIP will be closer to 1.10 than the 1.22 it was last year.

7) Tim Lincecum (24.46) – His K:BB ratio slipped last year, which is concerning. However, I feel it is probably due to the fact that he was probably trying too hard to strike out batters and win games on his own. He has zero support from a horrible offense. This year they add Melky and Pagan and then get back Freddy Sanchez and Buster Posey. I think it will be a better year for the Freak.

8) David Price (38.42) – Going from 19 wins in 2010 to only 12 in 2011, made Price a huge disappointment last year. I fear this is going to be a common fluctuation due to the division he plays in. He still has great K-numbers, and took a big step forward with his K:BB ratio in 2011. If the Rays can avoid that first-half slump, then he might get started off on the right foot.

9) Jered Weaver (33.45) – A huge improvement in ERA last year, was off-set a bit by a big drop in K’s. Because he was such a workhorse (235 IP), he still managed 198 K’s. His low ERA was likely due to his .258 BABIP, so look for a regression back towards a 3.00 ERA in 2012.

10) CC Sabathia (30.78) – 40 wins over the last 2 years, he is probably your best bet for 20 Wins in 2012. His K-rate spiked last year to levels we haven’t seen since 2008 (8.72). CC in one word: Consistency.

11) Matt Cain (60.83) – His 7.19 Hits/9 was 3rd best in the NL, and he posted a career-best 2.88 ERA last year. The Giants offense looks to be greatly improved over what they were last year. At an ADP of 60, he will come at a much cheaper cost than others on this list.

12) Zach Greinke (49.79) – His K/9 was 10.54 last year. Read that last sentence again. And again. His 3.83 ERA was a bit higher than his xFIP of 2.56 shows. I think his ERA creeps closer to 3.00 and that K/9 dips a small bit closer to 9. Still should be considered an ace on any fantasy staff.

13) Dan Haren (42.89) – After his 2011, he wont be drafted as low this year. His K/9 did slip last year to 7.25. But it actually is directly in line with what he did in Oakland before moving to the NL. Because he is a workhorse, he will likely approach 200 K’s, but fall just a bit short.

14) Jon Lester (51.86) – He simply wasn’t as good as he normally was last year. His 3.47 ERA wasn’t due to a high BABIP or anything. He just allowed more hits than he normally does, and didn’t strike out as many as he normally does. He is a good bounce-back candidate, but you won’t get much of a discount on draft day because of his name recognition.

15) Madison Bumgarner (75.79) – With 23 quality starts last year, he will be the 3rd beneficiary of the Giants improved offense. Many believe his slider to be the best in the game. He threw it over 30% of the time last year, more than in years past. That is concerning from an injury-perspective, but he is young and likely won’t sustain that rate. Like Hamels, he will be overlooked on draft day because he is the 3rd best SP on his staff. At an ADP of 75, he is easily the best value that I see among the elite SP.

There you have it. The next 15 SP will be coming up next. Like I mentioned earlier, SP is a pretty deep position this year. That should be taken into consideration on draft day.


-AF

Here we go! I will take you through my top 30 outfielders fifteen at a time. This is where it gets to be a little more controversial. Some value certain players over others. I am high on a few players that others don’t really care for. And conversely, there are a few players you wont find me drafting that others really like

1) Matt Kemp – He is the consensus #1 outfielder and overall player this year in fantasy baseball. He wont last past the first 3 picks, and will often be taken #1. And for good reason too. He is as close to a lock for 30-30 as you will find in the game. His BABIP last year (.380) was very high, so don’t expect him to hit .324 again. However, a nice .280-.290 average is well in reach.

2) Jacoby Ellsbury – Ellsbury had a MVP-caliber season last year and helped many fantasy owners lock up their championship. Last year he was being drafted in the 2nd or even 3rd rounds of drafts. You will not be so lucky this year as he is going in the middle of the 1st round. The one thing we all want to know is, is his power surge last year legit? I think it is. If you look at his GB/FB ratio, it has decreased each year he has been in the league. That means as he is maturing as a hitter, he is starting to become more of a fly-ball hitter whereas when he came up he would try and beat out grounders for infield hits using his speed. I like Ellsbury to be in the 20’s as far as HR are concerned.

3) Justin Upton – If you are in a keeper league, you need to seriously consider taking Upton ahead of Ellsbury and Kemp. He is 3 years younger than both and on the same exact path with the same exact skill set. Don’t let his 2010 stats scare you away. He is still figuring things out at the plate, but he hit 31 HR and stole 21 bases last year and he still hasn’t reached his full potential. He has 5 years until he hits 30, which means he will be a top 5 OF for 5 more years with an upside of being an overall top 3 pick most of those.

4) Carlos Gonzalez – The scary thing about CarGo is that he only played 127 games last year, but still put up enough numbers to keep himself among the elite. While most were disappointed with him last year, I thought he had a fantastic year. Consider that when he went on the DL, his owners were able to plug in a guy for a month. You can find someone on waivers that will hit you 4-5 HR and give you 15 or so RBI in that time frame. Combine those stats with the ones that CarGo put up, and you basically have an elite OF. If I were picking at the end of the 1st round, CarGo would be a guy I would target.

5) Jose Bautista – I already profiled Bautista in the Third Base rankings. You should note that he will likely be solely OF-eligible in 2013 and beyond with Lawrie taking over at 3B.

6) Mike Stanton – Again, in Keeper/Dynasty leagues, I might be willing to take Stanton ahead of Bautista. At age 21, he hit 34 HR. There haven’t been many players to have done that over time. Temper your expectations however, he is a small slip away from being another Adam Dunn. His average will likely hover around .260 which means he will contribute solidly in 3 categories (R, HR, RBI), while being a non-factor in 2 (AVG, SB). Who knows? Maybe he figures out how to hit for average, but his extreme GB/FB rate shows that he sells out for the Home Run which won’t be of any help to his batting average.

7) Curtis Granderson – An MVP-caliber performance would usually have you higher on the list. His 41 HR and 25 SB was matched by only one other guy really (Kemp), and that guy is being drafted #1 in most leagues. His batting average is not going to improve, but the power-speed numbers are repeatable for Granderson. His BABIP (.295) appears to suggest his average might improve, but he is such an extreme fly-ball hitter/strikeout artist that he just doesn’t put many balls in play. Look to draft him mid-to-late 2nd round. I would also try to pair him with a high average guy like Votto or Gonzalez in the first round.

8) Andrew McCutchen – He plays for the Pirates. It sucks. I can’t wait until he gets traded to the Yankees or Red Sox. Still, he has a lot of value to offer. His 23 SB last year was a bit low for him looking at his career average. He is easily capable of stealing 30 this next year. I would say his power (23 HR) was right on the money for what we can expect from him next year. His .296 BABIP was low last year leading to a disappointing .259 batting average. He will likely hit somewhere close to .280 if a few more of those line drives fall in for hits next year.

9) Jay Bruce- Bruce is a guy whose career is on the rise. He is only going into his age-25 season, and he had career highs in almost every scoring category last year. His average will likely be between .260 and .280 depending on his BABIP, but even .260 doesn’t hurt your team that much if he is hitting 30 HR with 100 RBI. He is currently going behind Matt Holliday, which I think is outrageous, so make sure you aren’t that guy.

10) Matt Holliday – I think line-up protection tends to be overblown by most in the fantasy world. Sure, Pujols left, which means less RBI opportunities possibly for Holliday, but he is still the same guy he was last year. His main issue is his health. He had a career-low in AB last year with only 446 due to injuries. He still managed to hit 22 HR and drive in 75 runs. A healthy year would make that 25-30 HR and 90-100 RBI. I think most would take that in a heartbeat.

11) Alex Gordon – I think at 62, he would be a fair pick to make. His .361 BABIP helped him with his high average last year, but his power numbers and SB total was right on track with what he should do in 2012. Even with some regression in the average, he will be a solid producer in all 5 standard scoring categories. In the 5th round, that isn’t easy to find.

12) Josh Hamilton – The upside with Hamilton is an all-world hitter that would easily be a first round pick. The down-side is he easily could struggle to find 450 AB because of injury and not be worth the 3rd round pick you used. He is a high-risk-high reward type of guy. You will not win your league by picking only players that are sure bets. You have to take risks. Hamilton would fall in that category.

13) Shin-Soo Choo – I bet you can’t say that name 5 times fast. If Choo is really going as late as 64 in leagues, then I think he is another risk that I would love to take. His year last year was bad, even when he was healthy. But injury-ridden seasons often go just that way. When healthy, Choo is an easy 20-20 guy that contributes in all 5 categories. He was going in the 3rd round just last year. You could easily be getting 3rd round talent with a 5th round pick. Don’t be the guy that takes Jennings or Bourn ahead of Choo. Balanced teams wins championships.

14) Hunter Pence – A move to a better line-up and better hitter’s park should help Pence out a lot with his counting stats. He made a big jump last year, but I think his best year will be 2012. His average last year in an Astros uniform was driven heavily by a high BABIP, but once he went to Philly, it normalized. The one thing that makes you go hmmm, was his precipitous drop in SB last year. Being in more of a run-producing role, he wasn’t given the green light as much. I wonder if that changes in Philly this year.

15) Adam Jones – Jones improved in almost every scoring category last year. He is going to be a contributor in all 5 categories. His counting stats wont be elite until he plays for a team that is actually good. Still, he is young and improving which makes him a good investment on draft day.

This marks the halfway point for outfielders. I will touch more on the next 15 in the next segment. One thing that separates the top 15 from the bottom 15, is the fact that they all are solid to elite in multiple categories. One thing I have always believed in is building a balanced team and not relying on specialists (unless that specialist is so elite in their skill set, it could help you win a category). Stay thirsty my friends…

-AF

Okay, people need to stop talking about 3B being a shallow position. The way I see it, there are 12-13 solid options to play at the hot corner. Now, you are going to have to target one before the 7th round, because after that the pickings do slim down. Take a look and see for yourself:

1) Evan Longoria (11.54) – Still only 26 years old, he is coming off his worst season statistically. He still managed 31 HR and 99 RBI despite hitting .244. Why so high then? His average dipped because of a .242 BABIP which is 60 points below his career average. Along with that statistical anomaly, his walk rate increased and his strike out rate decreased. All of these things led to an increase in power for Longoria (per plate appearance). Expect a big bounce-back year from Longoria.

2) Miguel Cabrera (2.44)- Okay, I am kind of cheating by putting him here, but you need to be aware that he will be 3B eligible this year.

3) Jose Bautista (4.34)- For those in keeper leagues, understand that this is likely his last year to be eligible at 3B. Those owners willing to trust his 2010 breakout season were greatly rewarded. His FB/HR% was identical to his 2010 numbers, so the power is legit. At Age 31, it is just unfortunate that it took him so long to get things figured out. Expect the same level of production for the next couple of years. He is still in his prime.

4) David Wright (32.87)– Wright played injured for about a month last year before he finally went to the DL. When he returned, he didn’t finish the year as he expected. Even with the down year, Wright would have been a 20-20 guy had he not missed time. With the fences moving in at Citi-Field, I think we can expect a slight uptick in power from Wright. Plus, a mid-summer trade to a contending team is likely, and should give a boost to your team in the second half of the season. Wright still isn’t 30 and has a few good years left in him.

5) Brett Lawrie (54.08) – This year’s sexy pick at 3B will be drafted higher than he normally should be (especially in keeper leagues). However, if you are a gambling man, he is a good bet to beat the odds. In his rookie year, he hit .293/.373/.580. Numbers that just make you drool. He is a good 20-20 candidate and is only 22 going into this season. He will likely be the 4th 3B off the board in keeper leagues.

6) Hanley Ramirez (18.79) – Again, a bit of a cheat here, but just remember he will be a 3B this year.

7) Adrian Beltre (30.96) – Beltre has really become the type of player many thought he was back in 2004 when he hit the scene in a big way in LA. The line-up he hits in, combined with the ballpark, makes him a great run producer at third.

8) Aramis Ramirez (69.57) – Ramirez’ BABIP returned to normal levels (.317) and so did his batting average in turn (.306). His days of a .260 ISO are long gone, but he will still continue to be a good power source, maybe 25-30 HR in the next year. The Brewers will need him to step up while Braun serves his suspension.

9) Ryan Zimmerman (41.65) – His year last year was greatly disappointing. There were so many areas that he declined in, that I have a hard time buying into him as a comeback type. He is assured to have a solid batting average, you can count on that. Bill James predicts 22 HR next year and Rotochamp sees 20 HR for the Nationals slugger. His ISO dropped to .154, his GB% increased by 10% and his FB% decreased by 8%. Those are not good stats for a power hitter. Basically, he isn’t hitting many fly-balls, which is a problem for a power hitter. Maybe all of that was due to injury, but maybe it was also due to added expectations and pressure. The bottom line is, last year was a bad year for Zimmerman, and I will keep that in mind on draft day.

10) Alex Rodriguez (60.30) – Crazy to think that A-Rod is barely in the top 10 at his own position, but age seems to have crept in with the 14-time All-Star. His low average last year was legit according to his .314 BABIP. He does still hit in the middle of a very good Yankees line-up, and the talent is there. But the power-speed combo that made him beyond elite for so many years is long gone. If he maintains his patterns of increasing GB% and decreasing FB/HR%, then I think we might have seen the last of his 30+ HR/100 RBI days. The one thing he has working for him however is that he is A-Rod and has been one of the most dominating offensive forces in his era. He very well could return to those glory days, the stats just don’t point to it.

11) Pablo Sandoval (68.76) – Kung Fu Panda came back in a big way last year hitting .300+ again with acceptable power (23 HR). Injuries did limit him to 426 AB, but he made the most of those AB’s. AT&T is going to rob him of some of the power, and the Giants’ poor offense will suppress his counting stats, but he is still a fine option at 3B. He is also only 25, so we can only imagine that his best years are still to come.

12) Mike Moustakas (215.76) – Light tower power. The guy hit 36 HR in 2010, piquing the interest of numerous dynasty/keeper league fanatics. Moose and Hosmer were going to lead KC to multiple division champs and resurrect a fallen ball club. Hosmer showed up and looked good, but Moose only hit 16 HR between AAA and KC and looked lost at the plate for most the year. In September however, Moose hit .352 with 4 HR and 12 RBI in 88 AB. This year he has the starting 3B gig from the beginning, and the power numbers should increase. He is a good guy to draft late in hopes that he finds his power stroke this year.

13) Michael Young (70.90) - With all of the talk pre-season about Michael Young being displaced by the Beltre signing and whatnot, he remained the professional that he has shown himself to be and went out and hit .338 with 106 RBI. That's a lot of production for a guy in his age 35 season who is supposedly on the downside of his career. However, don't draft Young for last year's numbers. His .338 average was due to a significant spike in his BABIP (.372) from his career norm (.342). Basically, he was a .300 hitter last year who got pretty lucky to end up in the .330's. Still, he will be 1B eligible and even though he wont bring power to your line-up (only 11 HR in 2011), but he will give you a high batting average and run production.

14) Kevin Youkilis (84.91) – Injuries have limited Youk to an average of 476 AB the last 2 years. Going into his age 33 season, there isn’t any reason to think he is less likely to lose time to injuries again. In a league that counts OBP, Youk is a beast because of his high BB-rates. His batting average slipped to .258 last year in part because of a 30 point drop from his career norms in BABIP. I think the injuries had a lot to do with that. Beyond injuries, Youk hits in a great line-up and a great hitters park in Fenway. I would probably try to hand-cuff him with a Prado or Bonifacio later on in the draft however.

15) Martin Prado (190.16) – Prado actually did better from the lead-off spot last year than when he hit 2nd. With the addition of Bourn however, he is unlikely to hit in that spot again. Still, he is hitting at the top of the Braves line-up, and should score 80+ runs. His LD% dipped significantly last year as he had a hard time hitting the ball in the air. That isn’t a good sign, but it also leads you to maybe expect a regression back to the norm this year. He wont have a big price tag on draft day, and will also be OF eligible. I think a bounce-back year is in the works.

Honorable Mentions: Emilio Bonifacio, Ryan Roberts, Mark Reynolds*, David Freese, Chase Headley

* I will rarely draft specialists at a position that isn’t extremely shallow already. If there weren’t already a decent number of 3B available, I might consider the power he brings to the table, but I just believe in a balanced roster. Specialists are easy to add via the waiver wire.

There you have it. Third Base isn’t as scary as you thought it was. It should be noted that most of them are going in the top 100, so you should probably plan on using a higher draft pick to snag one of the top 10 guys. I think of all of them, Youkilis offers the most value. He is likely to bounce back, and you are just gambling with injuries. Still ¾ of Youk and ¼ of Roberts or Freese would be a pretty nice stat-line at 3B overall. I wont be found drafting David Wright or Ryan Zimmerman. Brett Lawrie and Pablo Sandoval would be my picks in keeper leagues (if you don’t snag Longo of course). Good luck!

-AF

Welcome to the third installment in fantasy baseball rankings here at Baseball Nation. Today we will look at the ever-weak shortstop position. This year is no different, in fact it is even more dicey this year than in the past 2 or 3. The top 3 for the last few years have always been solid, but injuries and position changes have thrown a few wrenches into the equation. Check it out…

1) Troy Tulowitski (4.59)– Easily the only elite option at the position. In the world of shortstops, there is Tulowitski and then there are other weaker mortals. Going into his age 27 season (peak year for hitters), he will be a top 10 talent for the next few years as long as his health allows.

2) Jose Reyes (19.21) – The team change should improve his numbers from last year. Now he will have some capable run producers hitting behind him in the form of Han-Ram and Mike Stanton. I think his health issues are a little overblown. He had 4 consecutive 600+ AB years before his injury-shortened 2009. Since then, he has put up 2 seasons in which his lowest AB total was 537 (last year). At age 28, his speed totals aren’t likely to go beyond 40 SB, but he will continue to be a great option at a shallow position.

3) Hanley Ramirez (18.81) – His shoulder injury, to me, is a little more concerning than Reyes’ injuries. He says he is healthy and ready for the position change. There is a lot of potential value in drafting Hanley. Just last year he was a top 5 pick in almost every league. I think Hanley partnered with a first round pick of Votto or Adrian Gonzalez would be really nice. Don’t forget he will be 3B eligible two weeks into the season. That adds even more value.

4) Starlin Castro (42.09) – 10-15 HR and 20-25 SB to go along with a .300 average. He will be a solid contributor in all 5 categories.

5) Elvis Andrus (45.16) – He is a guy that I don’t typically draft in the first 5 rounds. He is only helpful in 2 categories, SB and R. Sure, he plays a premium position in a hitter’s park and great line-up. There’s just too many players going around Andrus in a draft that contribute in multiple categories (Hunter Pence, Jay Bruce, Nelson Cruz). Take my advice and pass on him in the 4th or 5th rounds.

6) Asdrubal Cabrera (71.76) – Last year was likely a career year for Cabrera. His power literally came out of nowhere. His HR/FB percentage jumped from around 2% to 10.5%. We have seen changes in swings/mechanics boost a player’s production, but you rarely see a jump that large. He isgood for the 15-20 SB and he will likely have double-digit HR. He faded dramatically the last 2 months of the season hitting .239 and .234. He is still a solid option, just don’t expect 2011 again.

7) Derek Jeter (124.63) – Here’s where my list will vary from most. A lot of people are going to have J-Roll at 6, as well they should. However, the difference between Jeter and J-Roll is likely only 5-7 HR and 10-12 SB. Oh yeah, you can get Jeter 40 picks later (that’s 3 rounds or more). I think the value Jeter has hitting atop the Yankees line-up can’t be overlooked. He contributes well in 3 categories (BA, R, SB). I like him at 7.

8) Jimmy Rollins (86.17) – Honestly, I should probably flip Rollins and Cabrera, but I just don’t like fluctuating power numbers of Rollins. Still, anyone who is a lock for 15 HR-30 SB should be on your radar. Right now he is going towards the beginning of the 8th round, which I feel is fair value for a hitter of his caliber. He has the capability to be elite at all 5 standard categories, but he also has the capability to cripple you with his batting average.

9) Alexei Ramirez (167.77) – He lost a lot of his charm last year as his numbers slipped nearly across the board. Lower average, run totals, SB totals, and HR totals. The entire White Sox offense underperformed last year as a whole, and I think he got caught up in that. He is a perfect buy low candidate. He could easily be a 20-15 guy with a solid batting average. And for where he is being drafted, I wouldn’t argue with that.

10) Dee Gordon (144.99) – Everyone is going to love them some Dee Gordon this year. His 50 SB potential is going to have him off the board earlier than he probably should be. He still hasn’t played a full season yet, and with guys like Ramirez and Aybar going behind him, I don’t feel he is worth the reach. He has Juan Pierre-type power and only walked 7 times in 233 plate appearances. The low-walk totals really concern me. It will make it hard for him to maintain a decent batting average.

11) JJ Hardy (131.73) – His power numbers last year () were nice to see because he has been through so many injury-riddled seasons that have limited his production. But therein lies the problem: he can’t be relied on to stay healthy. He has only averaged 427 AB the past three years. I like Ramirez, who is being drafted 30 spots later, a bit more because of that.

12) Emilio Bonifacio (172.42) – Bonifacio sure came out of nowhere to be a very productive player for the Marlins. He started off as a super-utility guy and found a home when Han-Ram went down mid-year. You need to watch out here because he is slated to be the Marlins starting CF, but if they sign Cespedes he could be relegated back to super-utility man. Still, his SS/3B/OF eligibility make him a nice player to have on your team when injuries pop up. His BABIP was high last year (.372) which lead to his high average. Don’t expect him to hit .296 again (maybe closer to .275), but his walk rate has increased the last 3 years. That is a plus for a speedster like Bonifacio.

13) Jhonny Peralta (176.13) – His batting average last year is not likely to happen again. He will likely hit around .260-.275. Still, he has driven in 80+ runs 4 years in a row now. That makes him elite in that category. Partner with that 15-20 HR and his batting average wont hurt you so much that he wont be worth the pick. Honestly, I think he should be drafted ahead of 2 or 3 guys on this list.

14) Erick Aybar (147.64) – Aybar had himself a nice little year last year. If he is going to steal 30 bases again this year, then I wouldn’t see any reason why he couldn’t be in your line-up. Don’t expect much power, his 10 HR last year is probably the high end.

15) Marco Scutaro (235.97) – At age 36, he makes a move to a hitter-friendly ballpark. He wont be robbed HR by the Green Monster anymore. His LD% has gone down the past few years, which isn’t a good sign for an aging hitter, but I think the thin air of the Rockies could increase his HR total back to double-digits. He might also carry a little more value with an added 2B eligibility.

Honorable Mentions: Stephen Drew, Yunel Escobar, Jed Lowrie, Ian Desmond, Alex Gonzalez

It’s a thin position, and there are plenty of guys that will be over-drafted because of that. Be careful not to overpay for one of them. Alexei Ramirez and Jhonny Peralta offer great value according to their ADP. I know that if I draw the 3rd-5th pick in any draft, Tulowitski is my pick. Hanley Ramirez and Derek Jeter are 2 guys i would be willing to take a chance on. Elvis Andrus and Dee Gordon are 2 guys i will not draft under any circumstances. Jimmy Rollins might be the best pick of the lot when ADP, stats, and pedigree are all considered. Good luck!

-AF

This, in my opinion, is probably the deepest position from top to bottom. It has a nice blend of power, speed, youth and experience. All you have to do is plan accordingly. There are bargains to be had at the top of the draft and towards the end. I will start putting each player’s ADP (according to mockdraftcentral.com) in parenthesis next to their name to help you plan for where they might fall.


1) Robinson Cano (9.61) – He followed up his MVP season with another season just as worthy of another one. He is the only one I would even consider in the first round. And just think of pairing him with a second round pick of Prince Fielder (ADP: 13) or CarGo (ADP:14). Extremely sexy offensive numbers ensue. .300/100/30/100 at 2B is only going to come from this guy. If you have pick 8-12, he should be your pick.

2) Dustin Pedroia (18.58) – A small step down from Cano, Pedroia will steal about 20 more bases and have maybe 20-30 less RBI. So, if you pick a slugging 1B in the first round, Pedroia would be a nice complimentary player. He is probably the only 5-category stud at the position.

3) Ian Kinsler (23.58) – Being available at the end of the second round, I would pass. If he is still on the board in the 3rd, I would draft him. His injury concerns are legit (he has only averaged 134 games played the last 3 years). Still, he is the only 30-30 guy at 2B, which will entice some owners to reach high for him. He’s a guy I will draft, but won’t reach for. 24th sounds about right to me.

4) Ben Zobrist (81.84) – Here is a guy that is way underrated by his ADP as far as I can see. He hits at the top of a great line-up (scored 99 runs last year), has a great power/speed combo (20 HR/19 SB last year), and his average won’t kill you. In OBP leagues, he becomes a 5-category filler because he takes a good deal of walks.

5) Dan Uggla (54.18) – Uggla is going to go way to high in every draft. He always does. Here’s how it goes: An owner wastes his first 3 picks on 2 SP and Carl Crawford and then freaks out wanting a power bat. They see Uggla and his 36 HR and click the Draft button. Don’t be that guy. His average will kill your team. You would need 2 guys who hit .300+ to cover up for his .240 average. I warned you.

6) Chase Utley (77.18) – Oh how the mighty have fallen. I knew I would see a day that Chase wasn’t a top 5 2B, but I had no idea it would be so soon. He is still a 20-20 threat, and bats in a good hitter’s park in a good line-up. There is an injury risk because of his age and the way he plays the game. In the 7th round however, I think he would be a great value pick. You do need to take chances in the draft, and I think he is one worth taking.

7) Brandon Phillips (61.59) – I can’t believe I have him ranked this low because he is still a great player. He is basically the same player as Utley, except I see a regression in SB this year. Normally a lock for 20-20 in the height of his career, his SB numbers have tapered off for 2 years now. And his SB% the last 2 years is 59%. Ouch. I don’t know how much more he will be given the green light at those rates. I ranked him behind Utley because he is going a full round ahead of Utley when they really are so similar.

8) Rickie Weeks (79.75) – Another value pick. Injury is the risk. His days of 20 SB are over, but the potential to hit 25+ HR is definitely there. A healthy year last year would have put him around 25 HR and 100 R. Double digit SB are likely, but don’t expect any more than 15.

9) Howard Kendrick (104.58) – He will also be 1B eligible, which doesn’t necessarily improve his value, but does make him more flexible. He’s got a little bit of everything, but isn’t outstanding in any one area. .280/15/70/90 is about what you can expect. Pujols does seem to make everyone around him better…

10) Dustin Ackley (136.28) – I might bump him up a few slots to #7 in keepr/dynasty leagues. He could turn into a Pedroia-type of a player. Keep a close eye on him in Spring Training as he is rumored to be a candidate for the lead-off spot in Seattle. If that happens, 100 R is not out of the question for the top prospect.

11) Danny Espinosa (151.26) – If you can absorb his low batting average(.240-250), then he will contribute well in all other 4 categories. A 20-20 threat in the 12th round is a great deal.

12) Neil Walker (143.69) – If he continues to hit clean-up for the Bucs, he could very well be underrated at 12. He could mature to 15-20 HR this year and should continue to drive in runs.

13) Jemile Weeks (154.53) – Cheap speed late in the draft. He will hit lead-off for an offensively-challenged club in Oakland. He will likely steal at least 30 bags and score 80 or more runs. It is just really tough to compete with a zero in that HR column. He will hit a few out, but he won’t hit more than 5.

14) Jason Kipnis (164.02) – He wasn’t a big prospect coming up, so his solid showing at the end of 2011 caught many by surprise. He’s a real darkhorse to go 20-20, but I think 15-15 is a much safer bet. His average might dip a little bit as pitcher’s develop more of a book on him, but he would be a nice guy to plug in as a MI.

15) Ryan Roberts (195.78)- Here is another 20-20 prospect that can be found late in the draft. He has 3B eligibility, which really adds to his value. I think guys like Roberts are key to winning your league. He will likely ride the bench, but his dual elgibility helps in case of injury, and he still brings enough value to where he wouldn’t hurt you if he were in your line-up.

16) Aaron Hill (233.27) – Hill is far removed from that 36 HR season in 2009. I don’t expect that we will ever see that again from him. Last year, he stole more bases than he hit home runs for the first time in his career. The SB numbers are puzzling and I expect them to drop a bit (even though AZ has been a run-happy team traditionally). His power numbers can only be helped by Chase Field, and he did slug .492 in his 124 AB’s in Arizona after the trade. I expect the low batting average to continue (.250-.260 maybe), but his power to increase a bit to 15 HR or more. I think he is worth a look if you are looking to fill your MI spot late in the draft.

Honorable Mentions: Kelly Johnson, Omar Infante, Daniel Murphy

Alright, I guess streamlining didn’t happen. There was just too much to talk about with the 2B position. There are steals in the middle of the draft (Zobrist) , late in the draft (Roberts, Espinosa), and good value at the top (Cano, Pedroia). Stay thirsty my friends.

-AF

Welcome to the next installment of Baseball Nation’s Fantasy Rankings. Before we go any further, let me list a few of the things that I have taken into consideration when making these rankings.

• Player's Age
• Track Record (last 3 years)
• Average Draft Position (ADP)
• A Few Advanced Statistics (BABIP, K%, HR/FB%...)

All of that put together creates these lists that are inherently flawed because they are my opinions and not necessarily fact. Feel free to add your own thoughts and opinions. That’s what these lists are all about.



1) Miguel Cabrera* – I am not going to lie. I have a man crush on Cabrera. There are 3 things you can count on in life: death, taxes, and Miggy hitting 30 HR and 100+ RBI. He has been an elite hitter since he entered the league, and in his age 29 season he still has 4 to 5 more years of dominance left in him. Add to that he will become 3B eligible, and it is hard not to fall in love. He very well could be the first pick in many leagues with that added 3B eligibility.

2) Albert Pujols – It’s amazing how long it has taken Pujols to appear human. A “down” year for him last year would still make him a top 5 1B in any league. He is switching leagues and has the pressure of that mega contract/expectations, but I don’t think he will be fazed. He is simply too good. Best player of his generation. Expect another 35-40 HR and 100+ RBI.

3) Joey Votto – He took a step back from 2010 last year, but let’s be honest here. Most mortals would take a step back from Votto’s 2010. His power outage to start the year was disappointing, but he made it up in the second half of the season to finish with 29 HR and 103 RBI. HE is entering his age 28 season, and is in a ballpark that highly favors right-handed power hitters. The only problem is Votto is a lefty and the Great American Ballpark is only slightly favorable for left-handed batters. Anyways, look for him to do much of what he did in 2011 and return to double-digits in stolen bases.

4) Adrian Gonzalez – Adrian’s HR total may have dropped by 4 last year (31 to 27), but he improved in almost every other offensive category with career highs in Hits, Runs, and OBP. Don’t look for him to repeat the .338 batting average, as his BABIP (.380) was about 5o points higher than his career norm, but he is easily a lock to be around .300. Fenway Park is a hitter’s haven, and Gonzalez must think he’s in heaven compared to his days in Petco.

5) Prince Fielder – With the move to Detroit, Fielder forms one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball with Miggy. The only problem: Comerica Park kills left-handed power hitters. According to it’s Park Index (PI), Comerica (102) is a neutral park meaning it doesn’t favor batters or pitchers. 100 is considered an average score. Comerica’s ranking for LHB power is 89. Yikes! To give a little perspective, 111 would be an elite index score, so 89 is the exact opposite. The good news is that very few batters have the power that Fielder does. 11 of his 38 HR’s last year were categorized as ‘No Doubt’ home runs, and conversely 10 were ‘Just Enoughs’. So maybe half of those JE’s don’t go and he ends up with 30-35 HR this year. Either way, count on him to continue raking.

6) Mark Teixeira – Teixeira is another guy who is a lock for 30+ HR and 100+ RBI and Runs. The only catch with him, is that horrible .250ish batting average he has had the last 2 seasons. He has a career BABIP of .299 and his BABIP last year was .239 That right there would lead you to believe that he might be in for a bump in average. However, I think that the dreaded shift that he is going to be bunting to beat is what is to blame for that lower BABIP, not to mention the fact that he is a flyball hitter. Still, if the first 5 are off the board, you will be hard pressed to find another guy that will fill those counting stats the way Teixeira will.

7) Eric Hosmer – Okay. The big names are off the board and you don’t know what to do. Pick Hosmer. In keeper leagues, I would even consider him ahead of Teix. He is only 22 going into this season. He is going to fill up all 5 categories. Don’t mistake him for a 30 HR guy this year, he will likely finish with 20-25 HR. But his 10-15 SB and solid batting average will help make him a good play at 1B. He will be hitting in the middle of an improving Royals line-up which will provide him plenty of RBI opportunities.

8) Mike Morse – Morse seemingly came out of nowhere in 2011 to hit .303 with 31 HR. His .247 ISO was 10th best in the majors last year. So the power seems to be legit. The big flaw for him is his vulnerability to the strike out. That could easily haunt him this season and cause his .303 average to fall 20 or so points. Still, he will be hitting in the middle of the Nats line-up with good hitters in front of him. Add to all of that he will be OF eligible, and Morse could be a nifty little fit on your team.

9) Paul Konerko – Honestly, I should probably have Konerko ranked higher than Morse, but he is going to be 36 this next year, and has hinted at retirement. The White Sox are in rebuilding mode, and good players around him (including him) could be dealt. The White Sox really stunk it up last year, and that really affected Konerko’s runs scored totals. He still managed to drive in 105 and hit .300, but age and a season with low expectations could lead to a lower output than what we saw last year from Konerko. Stay away from him in keeper drafts unless you plan on trading him mid-year, or if you are in a win-now mode.

10) Lance Berkman – His .547 slugging percentage was the best it has been since 2008, and you have to go back to 2006 to when he was putting up those numbers consistently. In only 488 AB’s he managed 31 HR and 94 RBI hitting behind Pujols. He is currently being drafted around the 8th round in 12-team mixed leagues. For a guy who could put up similar numbers to what you would expect out of the top guys, the 8th round is pretty good value. He will also be OF eligible which does increase his value a little bit.

11) Michael Young - With all of the talk pre-season about Michael Young being displaced by the Beltre signing and whatnot, he remained the professional that he has shown himself to be and went out and hit .338 with 106 RBI. That's a lot of production for a guy in his age 35 season who is supposedly on the downside of his career. However, don't draft Young for last year's numbers. His .338 average was due to a significant spike in his BABIP (.372) from his career norm (.342). Basically, he was a .300 hitter last year who got pretty lucky to end up in the .330's. Still, he will be 3B eligible and even though he wont bring power to your line-up (only 11 HR in 2011), he will give you a high batting average and run production.

12) Michael Cuddyer – The move to Coors Field can only have a positive impact for a guy like Cuddyer. Especially when you consider he is moving from Target Field to Coors. His 20 HR could easily make a jump to 30 in a hitter’s park. Temper your expectations however, because he is going into his age 32 season. Still, he will be 1B/OF eligible in all leagues, and even 2B eligible in a few. He too will be drafted in the 8th round along with Berkman. Berkman has a higher ceiling, but Cuddyer is the safer bet if you ask me.

13) Paul Goldschmidt – In only 156 AB last year, Goldy hit 8 HR and had 26 RBI. Combine that with the 30 HR and 94 RBI he hit in AAA last year, and you can see that he has some serious power to offer. There is a catch. His 53 SO in that limited time put him on pace to strike out more than 150 times this next season. This basically means that his average will likely top out around .250 or .260 if he is lucky. What we potentially have here is a young Adam Dunn. There is definitely a lot of value if you can pair him with one or two high average guys at another position.

14) Freddie Freeman – Freeman needs to cut back on his strikeouts if he hopes to improve this next year. For a guy who never struck out much at the minor league level, 142 is a lot. If he can cut back on those, I think there is a good chance he maintains the solid batting average, and as he grows his power input should grow as well. Don’t expect more than 25 HR this year with 80-90 RBI, but he is only going to be 22, so he has a while to figure things out. I would say he is a young Adam LaRoche with a better batting average.

15) Gaby Sanchez

16) Carlos Lee – He has truly been a professional hitter his entire career. While his value to the Astros is laughable, his value to your fantasy team is legit. I am a true believer in guys like Lee. First of all, he will be OF eligible as well which makes him versatile. Secondly, he is going to be hitting in the middle of the Astros line-up and has always been an above-average run producer. He won’t score many runs but he will hit around 20 HR’s and drive in close to 100 RBI. For a guy with an ADP of 190 (15th or 16th round), you could be looking at a nice value. A lot of people are going to judge him by his actual value and not his fantasy value. They will also complain that his team sucks (and they do). But they sucked last year and he still managed 94 RBI. Draft him.

So there you have it. There are plenty of guys who merit consideration. Personally, I prefer using one of those first 2 draft picks on one of them, especially since power numbers have been down the past couple of years. But I know that many prefer to go for positions that are a bit more scarce those first 2 rounds. My argument is that there are only 6 guys locked in at 30 HR and 100 RBI, and so you need to take that into consideration when planning for your draft.

During the month of February, we here at Baseball Nation are going to release our own list of fantasy rankings by position. We are going to kick it off with the Catcher position. This position as a whole is a bit deeper than it has been in the past 5 or so years. Newcomers like Posey, Santana, and Wieters have added a little depth to what used to be a very shallow position. Without any further ado, here are the 2012 B-N Fantasy Rankings for Catcher:

1) Carlos Santana - A lot of owners were very hesitant to draft Santana very high last year because of his horrific knee injury in 2010. Rumors were swirling about a move to 1B or DH. He played 95 games at Catcher last year and 66 at 1B. While doing so he hit 27 home runs while amassing 79 RBI's, 2nd and 3rd most in the league respectively. While his batting average was low (.239), that is easily attributed to an extremely low BABIP of .263. He still managed a solid OBP (.351), and he is bound to be a lot luckier on balls in play in 2012.

2) Brian McCann - Brian has been at the top of the catcher rankings for 5 years and running. There isn't a safer bet at the Catcher position to hit 20 HR's and drive in 80+ RBI. He hits for a great average, and is even more of a monster in leagues that count OBP. If you are looking for a safe place to use your money (draft spot), then McCann is the guy you want. Still only 28, he has a good 4-5 years left in his prime.

3) Mike Napoli - A lot of people are going to draft Napoli ahead of McCann or Santana this year, and i just dont understand why. His batting average in the first 3 months of the season were .267, .206, and .179 respectively. Ouch. BUT, he obviously went on a torrid stretch of outstanding hitting from July on through the World Series. What keeps me from ranking him ahead of McCann and Santana is that we havent seen Napoli put together a full season at the Catcher position. The Rangers are rumored to be giving him the full-time gig at the Catcher position this year, so i guess we will see how his legs and stamina holds up over the course of a full-season. Still a great pick, but i just want to see him prove he is worthy of selecting in the top 50 (which is where his ADP is right now).

4) Buster Posey - Speaking of wanting to see a player prove themselves (did you catch that segway? perfect.), Posey comes in at #4. His power was down a bit from his outstanding rookie season, but he wasn't even able to log 200 AB's before that jerk, Scott Cousins, took him out. Power is one of those stats that accumulates over the course of a season. I am not ready to say that Posey would have only hit 12 bombs last year if healthy. If you are in a league that counts OBP or OPS, his value increases even more. There could be a lot of value to Posey if he comes back healthy, just look at Carlos Santana last year. He is currently the 4th Catcher coming off the board according to Mock Draft Central (MDC) with an ADP of 59.55.

5) Miguel Montero - I view Miguel Montero as a McCann Lite. He is going to produce in 3 categories very well: batting average, HR, and RBI. He is good for 15 HR, 70 RBI, and a .280+ BA all day long, if healthy. He was another catcher last year who was coming off an injury. He is a safe bet if you miss out on the top 4 guys. His ADP of 102 means you can get him in the 9th or even 10th round, which really comes at a better value than you may have to pay for McCann or one of the big 3. All the taste, with less calories my friends.

6) Matt Wieters - Wieters has improved every year since he first came up in 2009. His HR production doubled last year to 22, which was fifth-most among catchers. He is really in the middle of the pack in batting average and RBI, but his draft day price tag of 99 means that you can wait until the 8th or 9th round to snag him up.

7) Joe Mauer - Say it ain't so Joe! Bilateral Leg Fatigue? I am still trying to google that term. Disappointment is the only thing that comes up. His days of hitting 28 HR are long gone my friends. Please don't fall for past performances. The good news is the worst average he has ever hit for in a season is .287, and he will be a monster in leagues that count OBP. ADP of 81 is a bit of a high price to pay (especailly for a guy that might not even spend much time at the Catcher position in the future), but he also brings a great reward if he can find his stroke again. Classic high risk, high reward situation.

Okay, i will interject my opinion into the rankings at this time. The top 7 are pretty clear to me, and are worth looking into and investing in. The guys who follow are useful players, but most likely will not be major producers on your team. I know a lot of folks out there fill the Catcher position in the last 3-5 rounds. These are the guys i would look into if that's your style.

8) Alex Avila - Yoda would say, 'One lucky season, a top catcher does not make'. His .376 BABIP tells us that he was very lucky last year to have hit .295. His splits show that he did pretty well in both the first and second halves of the season, even though he seemingly faded in the playoffs. The power is legit, he seems to be good for 15-20 HR, but i think those are gong to come with a .260-.270 average this year. He is going to be hitting behind Fielder and Cabrera, so the opportunity to drive in runs will be there for him. He might not be an all-star again this year, but he will be a good enough power source to merit a spot on your fantasy roster.

9) Yadier Molina - Last year was a career year for Molina in terms of power. Don't plan on 14 HR again this year. His HR/FB% was double his career norms. However, his 65 RBI and .305 average are pretty much in line with his career numbers. He has always been known for his outstanding defense, but he has steadily improved with the bat as he has aged. Among catchers with at least 300 AB's last year, he ranked 2nd in average and 8th in RBI. Not too bad for a guy who is currently being drafted 180th. Don't reach for him, but if he falls into you lap in the 18th or 19th rounds, then i think you could do much worse.

10) JP Arencibia - JP is a two-trick pony, but his two tricks are really good. His power is legit, but it is going to cost you in batting average. His average of .219 is ugly and it isn't getting any better with a 0.68 GB/FB rate. His BABIP will always be low because of that, and he may not be able to hold on to his position when Travis D'Arnaud is ready. That being said, if you get to the back end of the draft, and you have a couple high average guys to balance him out, the power he brings to the table will help your team.

11) Wilson Ramos - Ramos has the catcher's position all to himself with the exit of Pudge from DC, and we will have to see what he does with the stage all to himself. Look for his average to come up a bit from the .267 it was last year. Who knows? With a lucky year and a high BABIP, he could easily be a .300 hitter. The power should remain about the same at 15 HR, which is par for the course at the Catcher position. He would be a thrifty add to your team if you wait late.

12) Russell Martin - Martin had a bit of a renaissance year last year with the Yankees. It ended up with a batting average that will hurt your team (.237), but counting stats and power numbers that are slightly above average (18 HR, 67 RBI, and 57 R). If he didn't hit in the Yankees line-up, he wouldn't be worth a spot on your team, but he does and so he comes in at #12.

13) Jonathan LuCroy- LuCroy is a last ditch effort for your team. There is potential for 15 -20 HR and 65+ RBI, but he hasnt done it yet. His .265 batting average might come up a few ticks, but is about what he is likely to reproduce in 2012. He did fade a bit in the second half of the season. However, for a guy that will go undrafted in some leagues, you might be willing to take a shot that he takes a big step forward in 2012.

14) Chris Iannetta- This is really just a shot in the dark. He has always had big promise he has failed to live up to so far. His batting average is likely to top out at .250, but there is a lot of promise in his power. If you are in a league that counts OBP or OPS, he has shown to excel at getting on-base. I would give him a shot in leagues like that.


Ok, so this pretty much wraps up the Catcher position. There were some guys left off that you might find on other lists. I generally don't fall for guys like Nick Hundley who play on bad teams and have only played for half a year. I also wont be drafting guys like Carlos Ruiz who only hit for a decent average and dont produce anywhere else. At the end of the day, you need production in multiple categories from the Catcher position...

Stay tuned for the First Base rankings...should be ready later this weekend.

-Astrosfanatic

This year begins my 10th year of playing fantasy baseball. I guess that’s not too long in the grand scheme of things. I’ve played in all kinds of leagues: Roto, H2H, Points, Auction, Keeper, Dynasty, and the list goes on. One thing that I have found to be the same in each of these leagues is that the art of trading has declined from what it used to be back in the heyday of fantasy baseball.

I was pretty frustrated the other day with another owner in a 20-team league I am a newcomer in. I was trying to trade away (I still am) Ichiro for some prospects, or just someone younger than 35 really. The owner and I kept gong back and forth, and he offered me Jorge De La Rosa, Colby Rasmus, or some other non-factor player that I couldn’t care less about. In all of my frustration, it hit me: trading isn’t what it used to be.

My first 3 leagues were all drafted live, and we all knew each other. We were just a bunch of guys that lived on the same dorm floor and loved fantasy sports. If I wanted to make a trade, I would walk down to my buddy’s room and run the trade by him. We would go back and forth arguing the pros and cons, looking at each other’s rosters. I would get into some pretty heated debates. One I remember clearly was would Bonds at his age be better than the long-term promise of A-Rod. Well, we all know the answer to that one, right? I ended up getting A-Rod for Bonds, but that’s another story.

This occurrence to me spawned me to start thinking of what would I expect in a trading partner? For starters, let me say that I am guilty of being a “lazy trader”. By that I mean someone who just looks at the rosters, finds random trades, and then throws out offers until one sticks. Trading is so much more than that, and you can become a better manager by following a few basic rules. Here’s 3 mistakes to avoid, and 3 ways to improve trading as a manager:


• Send a trade offer with no message attached: I am surprised at how many trade offers I get from owners with no message attached. It is important to give the other owner an idea of what you are trying to do. Consider it the greeting before a conversation. You don’t just walk up to a cute girl at a bar and dive into deep, meaningful conversation. You have to make introductions, give a cheesy pick-up line, or something to establish a friendly conversation. By just sending an offer, you could be telling the other manager subconsciously that this is what you are willing to trade, take it or leave it. By giving them an idea of what you are trying to accomplish (add saves, more power, stolen bases…), you allow them to think through your offer and try to find something that might also interest you if they don’t automatically like your offer.

• Lowball another manager: In an inexperienced league, or with an inexperienced owner, this might not be a bad idea. Stupid is as stupid does. However, if you send enough bad offers to other managers in your league, it can leave a bad taste in their mouth. It can lead to a sense of distrust. The other owner starts to think that whatever offer you are sending must be unfair because you have tried to “rip them off” a few times before. That cuts off a twelfth of the leagues premiere players to you. Now, if you want to improve your team, the pool of players to choose from is smaller. It is something to keep in mind. You may also find that when you send good offers, you will get good offers sent back. If people know that you are a reasonable, intelligent owner, then they are more likely to be more creative in their offers (which could ultimately be better for you).

• Decline without messaging back: If someone sends you a trade offer, it means that they are willing to deal. They are trying to improve their team. So maybe their first offer didn’t appeal to you. That doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t take a look at their roster and see if they have any players that interest you. And of course, make sure you send them a message explaining that players X, Y, and Z are guys you like off their roster. That way, when they go to offer you a trade in the future, they have some idea of what you are looking for. This goes back to the idea of a conversation. If you are truly interested in that girl at the bar, if you find that her favorite color is purple while yours is green, you wont just end the conversation there. You are going to try and fish for something you do have in common. Maybe you are both fantasy baseball diehards? If that is the case, what the hell kind of a bar are you in? Check yourself…

Now that we have looked at mistakes to avoid, let’s take a look at ways to improve your odds of making a good trade…

• Start with a message instead of an offer: Sometimes it’s just as easy as messaging another manager with ‘what would you like for David Wright?’. Don’t send an offer, because it can make it seem like it is your deal or no deal at all. That isn’t always the case. It could go one of three ways. One, he could say there’s no way on God’s green earth you are getting David Wright. Two, he could offer you a package you really don’t like. Three, he could make you an offer you can’t refuse. Two of those three options are good ones. Option number 2 seems like a negative result, but you just need to look at it under the right light. That means that while he isn’t offering you what you want, there is the right deal for you to make to get David Wright. All you have to do is find the right deal. Sometimes you can, and sometimes you can’t. That’s part of the fun.

• Don’t begin with your best offer: You have to be careful here. Remember that you don’t want to lowball the other owner into not wanting to deal with you. However, you don’t want to give up Verlander and Ethier, when just Verlander would have gotten the job done. Make sure your offer is fair and then have a couple ideas of how you could sweeten the offer just in case the other owner doesn’t bite at the first hook.

• Give options: Sometimes when you offer Dustin Pedroia and Hiroki Kuroda for Mark Teixeira, the other manager feels locked in to that deal. They might feel a little trapped. In that case, attach a message saying that I would also be willing to swap out players X, Y, or Z for Kuroda in case he doesn’t interest you. That way the other owner knows that you are willing to work with them and it can also allow them to have their input on the deal. Sometimes we don’t like trade offers simply because they aren’t our little brainchild. By giving the other owner input, it is even more agreeable.


Ok, I know we have covered a lot here, but I think these 6 ideas can help you become a better fantasy manager, and make deals that will improve your team. Just keep in mind that trading needs to be more of a conversation than just an offer. By conversing, it helps you and the other manage get what you want. Just make sure that what you want is better than what they want. That’s how you win.

-AF