astrosfanatic
02-18-2012, 09:30 AM
Outfield Part 2
Ok, so I have put some thought into this, and here’s what I think makes outfielders so tricky to rank. With other positions, there is a typical expectation for performance. For example, corner infielders are expected to provide power and run production. Middle infielders are expected to score runs, hit for a good average, and maybe steal bases. With outfielders, there is such a variety of skill sets, that it is hard to rank one over the other. Michael Bourn wont hit for double digit HR, which kills your teams power, but how much of that deficit will be made up by the 60 SB?? That’s what makes ranking OF so tricky. My list reflects my preferences in outfielders. I prefer balanced hitters over specialists. All that being said, here is the outfield continued through 30.
16) Ryan Braun (28.19) – Ok, so I feel kind of bad having him ranked so low at this point. As others have mentioned, 110 games of Ryan Braun matched with 50 games of a replacement level player are likely to combine for a top 10 OF. That is very true in roto scoring leagues. If you are in a head to head scoring league however, that strategy wont work out as well. Braun will come at a discount if you draft him early, but the first 6 weeks of the season could be rough for your team. His numbers from last year over 110 games look like this: 24 HR / 81 RBI / 80 R / 24 SB. Not that bad. I will say that it is unlikely that he steals as many bases this year. His number last year was about double what he normally steals. Tough call here.
17) Nelson Cruz (49.52) – If Nelson Cruz stays healthy, I will look like an idiot for having him ranked this low. If you prorate the average of his last 3 injury-shortened years to a full season, you are looking at 34 HR, 99 RBI, and 18 SB. That would be enough for me to draft him as a top 10 OF. He hasn’t had a healthy season yet, so I wouldn’t bank on it this year.
18) Michael Bourn (56.53) – He has averaged 58 SB the last 3 years and has established himself as the elite fantasy option in that regard. His batting average is driven by a high BABIP, but that is not uncommon among speedy players. He will contribute in 3 categories and be a zero in HR and RBI. It’s for that reason, he will be at the tail end of the great options in the OF for me. There will be a lot of players
19) Desmond Jennings (56.10) – The promise is there. In keeper leagues, he will go as high as the 3rd round, but in most leagues the 4th or 5th is most likely. That is a high price to pay for a guy with 268 major league at-bats. I would expect his HR total to be anywhere from 10-15. The SB production will be there no matter what, and 40ish SB makes him worth a gamble if for that reason alone. I think risks are inherently necessary, I just don’t like to take them in the first 5 rounds when the talent pool is so loaded.
20) Mike Morse (78.80) – Morse will also be 1B eligible in leagues, but most of his value might be as an OF. His power last year was legit.
21) Shane Victorino (75.26) – The Flyin’ Hawaiian will be a solid contributor in al 5 scoring categories. He is a 15-20 guy at his worst, and a 20-30 guy at his best.
22) Carl Crawford (39.89) – Bobby Valentine just announced that Crawford will be “out for a few weeks” as he recovers from a wrist injury. That doesn’t sound promising to me. After a beyond horrible year last year, it is just hard to buy high on Crawford. Then consider, his ADP has him going in the 4th round, and I say stay away. With the latest news his ADP is likely to slip, but he will still be a risky pick.
23) BJ Upton (67.47) – Upton would be ranked much higher on my board if I had any inkling of hope that he wouldn’t kill my batting average. His SB totals the past years partnered with his increasing HR totals make him a very promising player. However, his sub .250 average is a drain. Most of his AB’s last year came from the 5th-6th holes in the line-up. With the addition of Pena, the Rays might feel more comfortable hitting him second behind Jennings. That would increase his value in my mind.
24) Michael Cuddyer (95.41) – I like Cuddyer’s move to Coors Field. The 20 HR he hit at Target field could easily turn into 25-30 in that hitter’s park. In a few leagues, his 17 GP at second base might give him eligibility there. If that is the case, I would move him up the list. Also, i think he is a dark horse to have 100+ RBI.
25) Ben Zobrist (80.63) – I have already profiled Zobrist in the 2B. Most of his value would come at 2B, but his OF eligibility would allow for some flexibility.
26) Nick Markakis (124.43) – Last year was a disappointing year for Markakis. His value would be helped a lot by being on a good team, but he plays for the Orioles. His counting stats will likely be low, but he should be in the double-digits in SB and HR with a solid batting average. He would be a good 3rd OF.
27) Jayson Heyward (106.15) – His sophomore slump has quieted the hype that once surrounded the top prospect. He is a good buy-low candidate as he is slipping past the 100th pick, and he has the ability to be a solid #2 OF.
28) Nick Swisher (123.02) – Slow and steady. In OBP leagues, his value is even greater because of his high walk rates. He is going to score and drive in more than 80 runs with 20-25 HR. That’s strong contribution in 3 categories. His batting average isn’t likely to help your team or really handicap your team either. I always favor players on good offenses, and Swisher fits that profile.
29) Andre Ethier (134.99) – Another buy-low candidate, Ethier (when healthy) will hit for a high average with 20 or so HR. I don’t like the line-up he hits in, or the stadium, but he will be hitting in the middle of the line-up which helps. He would be a good 3rd OF to target.
30) Ichiro Suzuki (104.12) – Getting old. Still, he was one of only 8 guys last year to steal 40 bases. Rumors have him moving out of the lead-off spot to accommodate Dustin Ackley, but he will still likely hit 2nd and score a lot of runs. His skill set as a hitter is one that really ages pretty well, so even though he is getting up there in years, he still has value to a fantasy squad looking to improve their batting average. Avoid him like the plague in leagues that count OPS.
Honorable Mentions: Jayson Werth, Peter Bourjos, Logan Morrison, Drew Stubbs, Brett Gardner
Alright, like I said, it is hard to rank OF because of the varying skill sets you can find at this position. Like I said earlier, I prefer a balanced roster rather than relying on a Bourn, Gordon, or Gardner to carry me in one category. That strategy leaves you open to really being hurt by injuries. If Bourn goes down with a sore hamstring and never fully recovers this season, you would have passed up on guys like Nelson Cruz or BJ Upton that could have been positive impacts on multiple categories. It’s your call.
For deeper leagues, some sleepers you might want to consider would be Michael Brantley, Lorenzo Cain, Brandon Belt, and Lucas Duda. Belt is a guy I am keeping a close eye on in Spring Training. If he wins the 1B spot, his power numbers could be useful for a 5th OF.
-AF
Ok, so I have put some thought into this, and here’s what I think makes outfielders so tricky to rank. With other positions, there is a typical expectation for performance. For example, corner infielders are expected to provide power and run production. Middle infielders are expected to score runs, hit for a good average, and maybe steal bases. With outfielders, there is such a variety of skill sets, that it is hard to rank one over the other. Michael Bourn wont hit for double digit HR, which kills your teams power, but how much of that deficit will be made up by the 60 SB?? That’s what makes ranking OF so tricky. My list reflects my preferences in outfielders. I prefer balanced hitters over specialists. All that being said, here is the outfield continued through 30.
16) Ryan Braun (28.19) – Ok, so I feel kind of bad having him ranked so low at this point. As others have mentioned, 110 games of Ryan Braun matched with 50 games of a replacement level player are likely to combine for a top 10 OF. That is very true in roto scoring leagues. If you are in a head to head scoring league however, that strategy wont work out as well. Braun will come at a discount if you draft him early, but the first 6 weeks of the season could be rough for your team. His numbers from last year over 110 games look like this: 24 HR / 81 RBI / 80 R / 24 SB. Not that bad. I will say that it is unlikely that he steals as many bases this year. His number last year was about double what he normally steals. Tough call here.
17) Nelson Cruz (49.52) – If Nelson Cruz stays healthy, I will look like an idiot for having him ranked this low. If you prorate the average of his last 3 injury-shortened years to a full season, you are looking at 34 HR, 99 RBI, and 18 SB. That would be enough for me to draft him as a top 10 OF. He hasn’t had a healthy season yet, so I wouldn’t bank on it this year.
18) Michael Bourn (56.53) – He has averaged 58 SB the last 3 years and has established himself as the elite fantasy option in that regard. His batting average is driven by a high BABIP, but that is not uncommon among speedy players. He will contribute in 3 categories and be a zero in HR and RBI. It’s for that reason, he will be at the tail end of the great options in the OF for me. There will be a lot of players
19) Desmond Jennings (56.10) – The promise is there. In keeper leagues, he will go as high as the 3rd round, but in most leagues the 4th or 5th is most likely. That is a high price to pay for a guy with 268 major league at-bats. I would expect his HR total to be anywhere from 10-15. The SB production will be there no matter what, and 40ish SB makes him worth a gamble if for that reason alone. I think risks are inherently necessary, I just don’t like to take them in the first 5 rounds when the talent pool is so loaded.
20) Mike Morse (78.80) – Morse will also be 1B eligible in leagues, but most of his value might be as an OF. His power last year was legit.
21) Shane Victorino (75.26) – The Flyin’ Hawaiian will be a solid contributor in al 5 scoring categories. He is a 15-20 guy at his worst, and a 20-30 guy at his best.
22) Carl Crawford (39.89) – Bobby Valentine just announced that Crawford will be “out for a few weeks” as he recovers from a wrist injury. That doesn’t sound promising to me. After a beyond horrible year last year, it is just hard to buy high on Crawford. Then consider, his ADP has him going in the 4th round, and I say stay away. With the latest news his ADP is likely to slip, but he will still be a risky pick.
23) BJ Upton (67.47) – Upton would be ranked much higher on my board if I had any inkling of hope that he wouldn’t kill my batting average. His SB totals the past years partnered with his increasing HR totals make him a very promising player. However, his sub .250 average is a drain. Most of his AB’s last year came from the 5th-6th holes in the line-up. With the addition of Pena, the Rays might feel more comfortable hitting him second behind Jennings. That would increase his value in my mind.
24) Michael Cuddyer (95.41) – I like Cuddyer’s move to Coors Field. The 20 HR he hit at Target field could easily turn into 25-30 in that hitter’s park. In a few leagues, his 17 GP at second base might give him eligibility there. If that is the case, I would move him up the list. Also, i think he is a dark horse to have 100+ RBI.
25) Ben Zobrist (80.63) – I have already profiled Zobrist in the 2B. Most of his value would come at 2B, but his OF eligibility would allow for some flexibility.
26) Nick Markakis (124.43) – Last year was a disappointing year for Markakis. His value would be helped a lot by being on a good team, but he plays for the Orioles. His counting stats will likely be low, but he should be in the double-digits in SB and HR with a solid batting average. He would be a good 3rd OF.
27) Jayson Heyward (106.15) – His sophomore slump has quieted the hype that once surrounded the top prospect. He is a good buy-low candidate as he is slipping past the 100th pick, and he has the ability to be a solid #2 OF.
28) Nick Swisher (123.02) – Slow and steady. In OBP leagues, his value is even greater because of his high walk rates. He is going to score and drive in more than 80 runs with 20-25 HR. That’s strong contribution in 3 categories. His batting average isn’t likely to help your team or really handicap your team either. I always favor players on good offenses, and Swisher fits that profile.
29) Andre Ethier (134.99) – Another buy-low candidate, Ethier (when healthy) will hit for a high average with 20 or so HR. I don’t like the line-up he hits in, or the stadium, but he will be hitting in the middle of the line-up which helps. He would be a good 3rd OF to target.
30) Ichiro Suzuki (104.12) – Getting old. Still, he was one of only 8 guys last year to steal 40 bases. Rumors have him moving out of the lead-off spot to accommodate Dustin Ackley, but he will still likely hit 2nd and score a lot of runs. His skill set as a hitter is one that really ages pretty well, so even though he is getting up there in years, he still has value to a fantasy squad looking to improve their batting average. Avoid him like the plague in leagues that count OPS.
Honorable Mentions: Jayson Werth, Peter Bourjos, Logan Morrison, Drew Stubbs, Brett Gardner
Alright, like I said, it is hard to rank OF because of the varying skill sets you can find at this position. Like I said earlier, I prefer a balanced roster rather than relying on a Bourn, Gordon, or Gardner to carry me in one category. That strategy leaves you open to really being hurt by injuries. If Bourn goes down with a sore hamstring and never fully recovers this season, you would have passed up on guys like Nelson Cruz or BJ Upton that could have been positive impacts on multiple categories. It’s your call.
For deeper leagues, some sleepers you might want to consider would be Michael Brantley, Lorenzo Cain, Brandon Belt, and Lucas Duda. Belt is a guy I am keeping a close eye on in Spring Training. If he wins the 1B spot, his power numbers could be useful for a 5th OF.
-AF