astrosfanatic
02-11-2012, 10:23 AM
Third Base
Okay, people need to stop talking about 3B being a shallow position. The way I see it, there are 12-13 solid options to play at the hot corner. Now, you are going to have to target one before the 7th round, because after that the pickings do slim down. Take a look and see for yourself:
1) Evan Longoria (11.54) – Still only 26 years old, he is coming off his worst season statistically. He still managed 31 HR and 99 RBI despite hitting .244. Why so high then? His average dipped because of a .242 BABIP which is 60 points below his career average. Along with that statistical anomaly, his walk rate increased and his strike out rate decreased. All of these things led to an increase in power for Longoria (per plate appearance). Expect a big bounce-back year from Longoria.
2) Miguel Cabrera (2.44)- Okay, I am kind of cheating by putting him here, but you need to be aware that he will be 3B eligible this year.
3) Jose Bautista (4.34)- For those in keeper leagues, understand that this is likely his last year to be eligible at 3B. Those owners willing to trust his 2010 breakout season were greatly rewarded. His FB/HR% was identical to his 2010 numbers, so the power is legit. At Age 31, it is just unfortunate that it took him so long to get things figured out. Expect the same level of production for the next couple of years. He is still in his prime.
4) David Wright (32.87)– Wright played injured for about a month last year before he finally went to the DL. When he returned, he didn’t finish the year as he expected. Even with the down year, Wright would have been a 20-20 guy had he not missed time. With the fences moving in at Citi-Field, I think we can expect a slight uptick in power from Wright. Plus, a mid-summer trade to a contending team is likely, and should give a boost to your team in the second half of the season. Wright still isn’t 30 and has a few good years left in him.
5) Brett Lawrie (54.08) – This year’s sexy pick at 3B will be drafted higher than he normally should be (especially in keeper leagues). However, if you are a gambling man, he is a good bet to beat the odds. In his rookie year, he hit .293/.373/.580. Numbers that just make you drool. He is a good 20-20 candidate and is only 22 going into this season. He will likely be the 4th 3B off the board in keeper leagues.
6) Hanley Ramirez (18.79) – Again, a bit of a cheat here, but just remember he will be a 3B this year.
7) Adrian Beltre (30.96) – Beltre has really become the type of player many thought he was back in 2004 when he hit the scene in a big way in LA. The line-up he hits in, combined with the ballpark, makes him a great run producer at third.
8) Aramis Ramirez (69.57) – Ramirez’ BABIP returned to normal levels (.317) and so did his batting average in turn (.306). His days of a .260 ISO are long gone, but he will still continue to be a good power source, maybe 25-30 HR in the next year. The Brewers will need him to step up while Braun serves his suspension.
9) Ryan Zimmerman (41.65) – His year last year was greatly disappointing. There were so many areas that he declined in, that I have a hard time buying into him as a comeback type. He is assured to have a solid batting average, you can count on that. Bill James predicts 22 HR next year and Rotochamp sees 20 HR for the Nationals slugger. His ISO dropped to .154, his GB% increased by 10% and his FB% decreased by 8%. Those are not good stats for a power hitter. Basically, he isn’t hitting many fly-balls, which is a problem for a power hitter. Maybe all of that was due to injury, but maybe it was also due to added expectations and pressure. The bottom line is, last year was a bad year for Zimmerman, and I will keep that in mind on draft day.
10) Alex Rodriguez (60.30) – Crazy to think that A-Rod is barely in the top 10 at his own position, but age seems to have crept in with the 14-time All-Star. His low average last year was legit according to his .314 BABIP. He does still hit in the middle of a very good Yankees line-up, and the talent is there. But the power-speed combo that made him beyond elite for so many years is long gone. If he maintains his patterns of increasing GB% and decreasing FB/HR%, then I think we might have seen the last of his 30+ HR/100 RBI days. The one thing he has working for him however is that he is A-Rod and has been one of the most dominating offensive forces in his era. He very well could return to those glory days, the stats just don’t point to it.
11) Pablo Sandoval (68.76) – Kung Fu Panda came back in a big way last year hitting .300+ again with acceptable power (23 HR). Injuries did limit him to 426 AB, but he made the most of those AB’s. AT&T is going to rob him of some of the power, and the Giants’ poor offense will suppress his counting stats, but he is still a fine option at 3B. He is also only 25, so we can only imagine that his best years are still to come.
12) Mike Moustakas (215.76) – Light tower power. The guy hit 36 HR in 2010, piquing the interest of numerous dynasty/keeper league fanatics. Moose and Hosmer were going to lead KC to multiple division champs and resurrect a fallen ball club. Hosmer showed up and looked good, but Moose only hit 16 HR between AAA and KC and looked lost at the plate for most the year. In September however, Moose hit .352 with 4 HR and 12 RBI in 88 AB. This year he has the starting 3B gig from the beginning, and the power numbers should increase. He is a good guy to draft late in hopes that he finds his power stroke this year.
13) Michael Young (70.90) - With all of the talk pre-season about Michael Young being displaced by the Beltre signing and whatnot, he remained the professional that he has shown himself to be and went out and hit .338 with 106 RBI. That's a lot of production for a guy in his age 35 season who is supposedly on the downside of his career. However, don't draft Young for last year's numbers. His .338 average was due to a significant spike in his BABIP (.372) from his career norm (.342). Basically, he was a .300 hitter last year who got pretty lucky to end up in the .330's. Still, he will be 1B eligible and even though he wont bring power to your line-up (only 11 HR in 2011), but he will give you a high batting average and run production.
14) Kevin Youkilis (84.91) – Injuries have limited Youk to an average of 476 AB the last 2 years. Going into his age 33 season, there isn’t any reason to think he is less likely to lose time to injuries again. In a league that counts OBP, Youk is a beast because of his high BB-rates. His batting average slipped to .258 last year in part because of a 30 point drop from his career norms in BABIP. I think the injuries had a lot to do with that. Beyond injuries, Youk hits in a great line-up and a great hitters park in Fenway. I would probably try to hand-cuff him with a Prado or Bonifacio later on in the draft however.
15) Martin Prado (190.16) – Prado actually did better from the lead-off spot last year than when he hit 2nd. With the addition of Bourn however, he is unlikely to hit in that spot again. Still, he is hitting at the top of the Braves line-up, and should score 80+ runs. His LD% dipped significantly last year as he had a hard time hitting the ball in the air. That isn’t a good sign, but it also leads you to maybe expect a regression back to the norm this year. He wont have a big price tag on draft day, and will also be OF eligible. I think a bounce-back year is in the works.
Honorable Mentions: Emilio Bonifacio, Ryan Roberts, Mark Reynolds*, David Freese, Chase Headley
* I will rarely draft specialists at a position that isn’t extremely shallow already. If there weren’t already a decent number of 3B available, I might consider the power he brings to the table, but I just believe in a balanced roster. Specialists are easy to add via the waiver wire.
There you have it. Third Base isn’t as scary as you thought it was. It should be noted that most of them are going in the top 100, so you should probably plan on using a higher draft pick to snag one of the top 10 guys. I think of all of them, Youkilis offers the most value. He is likely to bounce back, and you are just gambling with injuries. Still ¾ of Youk and ¼ of Roberts or Freese would be a pretty nice stat-line at 3B overall. I wont be found drafting David Wright or Ryan Zimmerman. Brett Lawrie and Pablo Sandoval would be my picks in keeper leagues (if you don’t snag Longo of course). Good luck!
-AF
Next up in the series:
Outfielders (1-15)
Starting Pitchers (1-15)
Outfielders (16-30)
Starting Pitchers (16-30)
Relief Pitchers
Overall Top 50
Okay, people need to stop talking about 3B being a shallow position. The way I see it, there are 12-13 solid options to play at the hot corner. Now, you are going to have to target one before the 7th round, because after that the pickings do slim down. Take a look and see for yourself:
1) Evan Longoria (11.54) – Still only 26 years old, he is coming off his worst season statistically. He still managed 31 HR and 99 RBI despite hitting .244. Why so high then? His average dipped because of a .242 BABIP which is 60 points below his career average. Along with that statistical anomaly, his walk rate increased and his strike out rate decreased. All of these things led to an increase in power for Longoria (per plate appearance). Expect a big bounce-back year from Longoria.
2) Miguel Cabrera (2.44)- Okay, I am kind of cheating by putting him here, but you need to be aware that he will be 3B eligible this year.
3) Jose Bautista (4.34)- For those in keeper leagues, understand that this is likely his last year to be eligible at 3B. Those owners willing to trust his 2010 breakout season were greatly rewarded. His FB/HR% was identical to his 2010 numbers, so the power is legit. At Age 31, it is just unfortunate that it took him so long to get things figured out. Expect the same level of production for the next couple of years. He is still in his prime.
4) David Wright (32.87)– Wright played injured for about a month last year before he finally went to the DL. When he returned, he didn’t finish the year as he expected. Even with the down year, Wright would have been a 20-20 guy had he not missed time. With the fences moving in at Citi-Field, I think we can expect a slight uptick in power from Wright. Plus, a mid-summer trade to a contending team is likely, and should give a boost to your team in the second half of the season. Wright still isn’t 30 and has a few good years left in him.
5) Brett Lawrie (54.08) – This year’s sexy pick at 3B will be drafted higher than he normally should be (especially in keeper leagues). However, if you are a gambling man, he is a good bet to beat the odds. In his rookie year, he hit .293/.373/.580. Numbers that just make you drool. He is a good 20-20 candidate and is only 22 going into this season. He will likely be the 4th 3B off the board in keeper leagues.
6) Hanley Ramirez (18.79) – Again, a bit of a cheat here, but just remember he will be a 3B this year.
7) Adrian Beltre (30.96) – Beltre has really become the type of player many thought he was back in 2004 when he hit the scene in a big way in LA. The line-up he hits in, combined with the ballpark, makes him a great run producer at third.
8) Aramis Ramirez (69.57) – Ramirez’ BABIP returned to normal levels (.317) and so did his batting average in turn (.306). His days of a .260 ISO are long gone, but he will still continue to be a good power source, maybe 25-30 HR in the next year. The Brewers will need him to step up while Braun serves his suspension.
9) Ryan Zimmerman (41.65) – His year last year was greatly disappointing. There were so many areas that he declined in, that I have a hard time buying into him as a comeback type. He is assured to have a solid batting average, you can count on that. Bill James predicts 22 HR next year and Rotochamp sees 20 HR for the Nationals slugger. His ISO dropped to .154, his GB% increased by 10% and his FB% decreased by 8%. Those are not good stats for a power hitter. Basically, he isn’t hitting many fly-balls, which is a problem for a power hitter. Maybe all of that was due to injury, but maybe it was also due to added expectations and pressure. The bottom line is, last year was a bad year for Zimmerman, and I will keep that in mind on draft day.
10) Alex Rodriguez (60.30) – Crazy to think that A-Rod is barely in the top 10 at his own position, but age seems to have crept in with the 14-time All-Star. His low average last year was legit according to his .314 BABIP. He does still hit in the middle of a very good Yankees line-up, and the talent is there. But the power-speed combo that made him beyond elite for so many years is long gone. If he maintains his patterns of increasing GB% and decreasing FB/HR%, then I think we might have seen the last of his 30+ HR/100 RBI days. The one thing he has working for him however is that he is A-Rod and has been one of the most dominating offensive forces in his era. He very well could return to those glory days, the stats just don’t point to it.
11) Pablo Sandoval (68.76) – Kung Fu Panda came back in a big way last year hitting .300+ again with acceptable power (23 HR). Injuries did limit him to 426 AB, but he made the most of those AB’s. AT&T is going to rob him of some of the power, and the Giants’ poor offense will suppress his counting stats, but he is still a fine option at 3B. He is also only 25, so we can only imagine that his best years are still to come.
12) Mike Moustakas (215.76) – Light tower power. The guy hit 36 HR in 2010, piquing the interest of numerous dynasty/keeper league fanatics. Moose and Hosmer were going to lead KC to multiple division champs and resurrect a fallen ball club. Hosmer showed up and looked good, but Moose only hit 16 HR between AAA and KC and looked lost at the plate for most the year. In September however, Moose hit .352 with 4 HR and 12 RBI in 88 AB. This year he has the starting 3B gig from the beginning, and the power numbers should increase. He is a good guy to draft late in hopes that he finds his power stroke this year.
13) Michael Young (70.90) - With all of the talk pre-season about Michael Young being displaced by the Beltre signing and whatnot, he remained the professional that he has shown himself to be and went out and hit .338 with 106 RBI. That's a lot of production for a guy in his age 35 season who is supposedly on the downside of his career. However, don't draft Young for last year's numbers. His .338 average was due to a significant spike in his BABIP (.372) from his career norm (.342). Basically, he was a .300 hitter last year who got pretty lucky to end up in the .330's. Still, he will be 1B eligible and even though he wont bring power to your line-up (only 11 HR in 2011), but he will give you a high batting average and run production.
14) Kevin Youkilis (84.91) – Injuries have limited Youk to an average of 476 AB the last 2 years. Going into his age 33 season, there isn’t any reason to think he is less likely to lose time to injuries again. In a league that counts OBP, Youk is a beast because of his high BB-rates. His batting average slipped to .258 last year in part because of a 30 point drop from his career norms in BABIP. I think the injuries had a lot to do with that. Beyond injuries, Youk hits in a great line-up and a great hitters park in Fenway. I would probably try to hand-cuff him with a Prado or Bonifacio later on in the draft however.
15) Martin Prado (190.16) – Prado actually did better from the lead-off spot last year than when he hit 2nd. With the addition of Bourn however, he is unlikely to hit in that spot again. Still, he is hitting at the top of the Braves line-up, and should score 80+ runs. His LD% dipped significantly last year as he had a hard time hitting the ball in the air. That isn’t a good sign, but it also leads you to maybe expect a regression back to the norm this year. He wont have a big price tag on draft day, and will also be OF eligible. I think a bounce-back year is in the works.
Honorable Mentions: Emilio Bonifacio, Ryan Roberts, Mark Reynolds*, David Freese, Chase Headley
* I will rarely draft specialists at a position that isn’t extremely shallow already. If there weren’t already a decent number of 3B available, I might consider the power he brings to the table, but I just believe in a balanced roster. Specialists are easy to add via the waiver wire.
There you have it. Third Base isn’t as scary as you thought it was. It should be noted that most of them are going in the top 100, so you should probably plan on using a higher draft pick to snag one of the top 10 guys. I think of all of them, Youkilis offers the most value. He is likely to bounce back, and you are just gambling with injuries. Still ¾ of Youk and ¼ of Roberts or Freese would be a pretty nice stat-line at 3B overall. I wont be found drafting David Wright or Ryan Zimmerman. Brett Lawrie and Pablo Sandoval would be my picks in keeper leagues (if you don’t snag Longo of course). Good luck!
-AF
Next up in the series:
Outfielders (1-15)
Starting Pitchers (1-15)
Outfielders (16-30)
Starting Pitchers (16-30)
Relief Pitchers
Overall Top 50