Mudge Ranks the Starting Pitchers for 2012

[Mudge]

I'll do my ranks in tiers:


TIER ONE (proven number ones across the board): Halladay, Kershaw, Verlander.


TIER TWO (perhaps short on one fantasy category, but very good on the others): Lee, Lincecum, F. Hernandez, Sabathia.


TIER THREE (good, and well-balanced): Greinke, Hamels, Price, Lester, Haren, Weaver.


TIER FOUR (I think we have a winner): Gallardo, CJ Wilson, Kennedy, J. Johnson.


TIER FIVE (breakout or bust year in 2012?): Bumgarner, G. Gonzalez, Latos, Pineda.


TIER SIX (good): D. Hudson, Zimmermann, Garza, Cain.


TIER SEVEN (I'll take 'em, but not my first choice): Beckett, Romero, Hansen, Shields.


TIER EIGHT (could/should be higher, but not enough info. to go on): Luebke, Beachy, Moore.


TIER NINE (serviceable): Scherzer, Marcum, Morrow, Carpenter, Jimenez.


TIER TEN: (fill in the blanks): Oswalt, Chacin, Cahill, Garcis, Feliz, Lewis, Holland, Masterson, Fister, E. Santana, Hellickson -- it's a crap shoot after this point.


UNRANKED (obvious question marks): Darvish, Strasburg, Wainwright, Hudson.

[RickD]

Where would you rank Phil Hughes? Ivan Nova?

[winningbaseball]

Where would you rank Phil Hughes? Ivan Nova?

I thought more about Nova. I can see Hughes being a question mark, but Nova is surely a Tier 3 with a good upside.

[LarryBud]

My dynasty team is relying on tier 10 and 11 pitchers. Hmmmn. Maybe I miscalculated my strategy.

[daddies4angels]

Wainwright to me not really a ? mark. Guys bounce back great from tommy john surgery now. Have to love modern medicine

[Mudge]

I thought more about Nova. I can see Hughes being a question mark, but Nova is surely a Tier 3 with a good upside.

A guy with a grand total of 207 major league IP is hardly eligible for TIER THREE (aka: Good, and well-balanced). I had difficulty putting Price in there, and he is a much better, and more proven, commodity than Nova.

Maybe Nova could fit into TIER FIVE, but even then I'm not buying it.

[RickD]

I personally see Nova as Tier 6 and Hughes as Tier 5.

[Mudge]

I personally see Nova as Tier 6 and Hughes as Tier 5.

Okay, I know you are an irrational Yankee fan and all, but Phil Hughes (with his 443 IP in the majors and 4.46 ERA) is an also ran -- meaning he does not make the top ten tiers. Even his 18-8 year was an over 4.00 ERA. He's not good -- yet. Nor is Nova. You Yankee fans need to get real.

[winningbaseball]

Yankee fans are real. Most just don't under estimate our talent. Probably why we win so much.

[astrosfanatic]

Rick, these are also fantasy rankings. They don't account for actual value to a team. Nova was a lot more important to the Yankees rotation than he would be to my fantasy team. He doesn't put up the stats necessary to be an excellent fantasy SP (K's, ERA, WHIP). His main value is the Wins he produces, which are of equal value to the Yankees.

Hughes isnt even guaranteed a spot in the rotation, so i am not sure he even fits on this list either way

[Mudge]

Rick, these are also fantasy rankings. They don't account for actual value to a team. Nova was a lot more important to the Yankees rotation than he would be to my fantasy team. He doesn't put up the stats necessary to be an excellent fantasy SP (K's, ERA, WHIP). His main value is the Wins he produces, which are of equal value to the Yankees.

Hughes isnt even guaranteed a spot in the rotation, so i am not sure he even fits on this list either way

While this assessment is absolutely spot-on in terms of the fantasy discussion (this is a fantasy thread, after all), I also agree that Hughes is -- even in real terms -- a dicey proposition.

[WilsonC]

They'd be Tier 10 or so in fantasy terms, if that.

Strikeouts in and of themselves aren't particularly important for a pitcher in real baseball, as long as his overall skill keeps the runs off the board and gives his team a good chance to win, but in Fantasy baseball, a pitcher who doesn't strike out many hitters (like Nova) has limited value unless he's competing for ERA and WHIP titles. Someone like Mark Buehrle falls into this category; he's been a consistent and valuable pitcher over his career, but he's never been a great fantasy pitcher.

[RickD]

I got so irrational, I did not even notice this was a fantasy thread. Of course in my irrational fantasy world the Yankees only have Tier 1 pitchers....well except for Burnett who is Tier 2.

[Mr. Baseball]

Gallardo is an excellent pitcher, but he has proven to be extremely inconsistent. Therefor, I wouldn't classify him as a winner just yet. I've seen him struggle, I've seen him blow the opposition away, and I've seen him go on month-long droughts where he can't get anybody out. He always seems to get torn to pieces in the first few frames and recovers in the later innings. I'm never very confident when he comes to the mound to be perfectly honest.

[astrosfanatic]

Gallardo is an excellent pitcher, but he has proven to be extremely inconsistent. Therefor, I wouldn't classify him as a winner just yet. I've seen him struggle, I've seen him blow the opposition away, and I've seen him go on month-long droughts where he can't get anybody out. He always seems to get torn to pieces in the first few frames and recovers in the later innings. I'm never very confident when he comes to the mound to be perfectly honest.

You know, Gallardo is a frustrating pitcher for fantasy owners. Last year, he actually became a very good fantasy starter for the first time. His control has always been a killer for his WHIP. He always has struck out a bunch of batters which makes him rosterable. However, with a WHIP at 1.30 and up, he made you pay for those K's. Last year however, he improved his control and held up for a WHIP of 1.21 NOW, is that a step in the right direction or an aberration? I think he will put up very similar numbers to last year, but there will always be that chance for regression back to the old Gallardo.

Gio Gonzalez reminds me a TON of Gallardo. Great K's and ERA is nice, but all those walks are killer

[astrosfanatic]

I got so irrational, I did not even notice this was a fantasy thread. Of course in my irrational fantasy world the Yankees only have Tier 1 pitchers....well except for Burnett who is Tier 2.

Rick....you made my day

[winningbaseball]

Rick, these are also fantasy rankings. They don't account for actual value to a team. Nova was a lot more important to the Yankees rotation than he would be to my fantasy team. He doesn't put up the stats necessary to be an excellent fantasy SP (K's, ERA, WHIP). His main value is the Wins he produces, which are of equal value to the Yankees.

Hughes isnt even guaranteed a spot in the rotation, so i am not sure he even fits on this list either way

Thank you for the clarification. Fantasy to real baseball is a world of difference. Plus your point is valid in regard to Hughes.

[klwalk]

What's the thinking on Porecllo? His stats are so so but he puts up wins and should continue to do so with the Tigers new line up?

[astrosfanatic]

What's the thinking on Porecllo? His stats are so so but he puts up wins and should continue to do so with the Tigers new line up?

IMO, he is only worth a spot in deeper leagues. Wins is the only positive he will bring to your team.

[RickD]

Rick....you made my day

Glad i can be of service! Got to maintain my moniker.

[Mudge]

Gallardo is an excellent pitcher, but he has proven to be extremely inconsistent. Therefor, I wouldn't classify him as a winner just yet. I've seen him struggle, I've seen him blow the opposition away, and I've seen him go on month-long droughts where he can't get anybody out. He always seems to get torn to pieces in the first few frames and recovers in the later innings. I'm never very confident when he comes to the mound to be perfectly honest.

Your assessment of Gallardo is pretty much right on, as is astrofanatics which follows. Note that I put him in TIER FOUR: "I think we have a winner," but no guarantees.

As for Rick's observation, it's funny. I initially had Burnett in TIER ONE and all the rest of the Yankee pitchers as not worthy of being ranked. :fing02:

[winningbaseball]

What's the thinking on Porecllo? His stats are so so but he puts up wins and should continue to do so with the Tigers new line up?

Wins is the single most important stat a pitcher can produce for his team in real baseball.

[astrosfanatic]

just to tag on, here are the tiered rankings for SP done by RotoAuthority:


Tiers:
Starting Pitcher No. 1 in 12-team mixed leagues (Ranks 1-12): Verlander, Kershaw, Halladay, Lee, Lincecum, Hernandez, Sabathia, Hamels, Weaver, Haren, Price, Greinke.

Starting Pitcher No. 2 in 12-team mixed leagues (Ranks 13-24): Gallardo, Lester, Strasburg, Cain, Shields, Kennedy, Wilson, Bumgarner, Latos, Hudson, Johnson, Hanson.

Starting Pitcher No. 3 in 12 team mixed leagues (Ranks 25-36): Moore, Beckett, Pineda, Romero, Darvish, Wainwright, Garza, Gonzalez, Beachy, Carpenter, Zimmerman, Cueto.

Starting Pitcher No. 4 in 12-team mixed leagues (Ranks 37-48): Luebke, Sanchez, Hudson, Marcum, Hellickson, Jimenez, Scherzer, Feliz, Santana, Morrow, Kuroda, Garcia.

Starting Pitcher No. 5 in 12-team mixed leagues (Ranks 49-60): Holland, Fister, Rodriguez, Chacin, Buchholz, Masterson, Dempster, Ogando, Jurrjens, Danks, Cahill, Sale.

Starting Pitcher No. 6 in 12-team mixed leagues (Ranks 61-72): Norris, Lewis, Nova, Lilly, McCarthy, Jackson, Santana, Baker, Volquez, Vogelsong, Chapman, Oswalt.

http://www.rotoauthority.com/2012/03/yahoo-and-mdc-adp-analysis-draft-tiers-starting-pitchers.html

[Mudge]

I'll do my ranks in tiers:


TIER ONE (proven number ones across the board): Halladay, Kershaw, Verlander.
TIER TWO (perhaps short on one fantasy category, but very good on the others): Lee, Lincecum, F. Hernandez, Sabathia.
TIER THREE (good, and well-balanced): Greinke, Hamels, Price, Lester, Haren, Weaver.


TIER FOUR (I think we have a winner): Gallardo, CJ Wilson, Kennedy, J. Johnson.
TIER FIVE (breakout or bust year in 2012?): Bumgarner, G. Gonzalez, Latos, Pineda.
TIER SIX (good): D. Hudson, Zimmermann, Garza, Cain.


TIER SEVEN (I'll take 'em, but not my first choice): Beckett, Romero, Hansen, Shields.
TIER EIGHT (could/should be higher, but not enough info. to go on): Luebke, Beachy, Moore.
TIER NINE (serviceable group A): Scherzer, Marcum, Morrow, Carpenter, Jimenez.


TIER TEN: (fill in the blanks): Oswalt, Chacin, Cahill, Garcis, Feliz, Lewis, Holland, Masterson, Fister, E. Santana, Hellickson.
TIER ELEVEN (obvious question marks): Darvish, Strasburg, Wainwright, Hudson, Sale, Cahill, Buchholz
TIER TWELVE (serviceable, group B): Dempster, Danks, Lily, W. Rodriguez.


Compare mine (group in threes) with theirs:

Starting Pitcher No. 1 in 12-team mixed leagues (Ranks 1-12): Verlander, Kershaw, Halladay, Lee, Lincecum, Hernandez, Sabathia, Hamels, Weaver, Haren, Price, Greinke.

Starting Pitcher No. 2 in 12-team mixed leagues (Ranks 13-24): Gallardo, Lester, Strasburg, Cain, Shields, Kennedy, Wilson, Bumgarner, Latos, Hudson, Johnson, Hanson.

Starting Pitcher No. 3 in 12 team mixed leagues (Ranks 25-36): Moore, Beckett, Pineda, Romero, Darvish, Wainwright, Garza, Gonzalez, Beachy, Carpenter, Zimmerman, Cueto.

Starting Pitcher No. 4 in 12-team mixed leagues (Ranks 37-48): Luebke, Sanchez, Hudson, Marcum, Hellickson, Jimenez, Scherzer, Feliz, Santana, Morrow, Kuroda, Garcia.

Starting Pitcher No. 5 in 12-team mixed leagues (Ranks 49-60): Holland, Fister, Rodriguez, Chacin, Buchholz, Masterson, Dempster, Ogando, Jurrjens, Danks, Cahill, Sale.

[Chitown Champ]

Very good list Mudge, but I would rank Cain in tier 4. He may not get many wins (still don't understand why) or strikeouts, but he is a very consistent workhorse. I suppose he doesn't fit tier 4's description, but I would pick him over any of the tier 5 pitchers due to his ability to lower any team's ERA.
Some other pitchers who did not appear on the list and might deserve it: Hiroki Kuroda (wins should start pouring in with Yankees), Wandy Rodriguez (slightly better than Ervin Santana in my opinion), Anibal Sanchez (somewhat like Wandy), Vance Worley (at least worth mentioning somewhere), Chad Billingsley (unfortunate victim of high opposing BABIP). I'm just being a bit nitpicky here. Overall, it's a great list.

[CoreyR]

Matt Cain doesn't get any wins because of that horrific offense in San Fran. Very nice post Mudge!

[Mr. Baseball]

Matt Cain doesn't get any wins because of that horrific offense in San Fran. Very nice post Mudge!

Hence, why I've never been a fan of wins being counted as a statistic in fantasy baseball. It's too unpredictable.

[OutfieldGrass]

This is why I have never been all that good at fantasy baseball. At first glance I look at the rankings and start moving guys around. However, when I take into account fantasy value I cannot disagree with a single player. Outside fantasy baseball Felix Hernandez is, IMO, a tier 1 starter right next to Kershaw, Verlander and Halladay. Put him on a good team and he gets the wins.

I do think Beachy, Bumgarner and Moore are going to move up quite a bit this season. Obviously Moore has a lot of talent but he is using it very well and should be one of the few pitchers that has very few complications on his way to being an ace. Bumgarner is primed for a huge breakout season. As is Beachy. Well, I hope since I acquired him for Carl Crawford lol