WilsonC
12-02-2011, 09:21 PM
2011 RF Overall: .274/.390/.522, 37 HR
By far the strongest position on the team, the numbers are mainly the work of Jose Bautista, but weighted down a little from a variety of other players who played there while the slugger was filling in at third.
Starter: Jose Bautista
2011 line: 149G, .302/.447/.608, 43 HR
I wrote at length about Bautista after his breakout season last year - the thread is here for those interested. (http://baseballnation.net/showthread.php?1427-Player-Profile-Jose-Bautista) I was aiming to figure out if his 2010 was for real, and based on some of the data I looked at - comparing the distance his HR traveled to other sluggers, his improved SO rate and BB rate, his FB rate, his unusually low BABIP - I figured that he'd regress somewhat due to an extreme flyball rate boosting his HR totals, but that he'd remain a top slugger. He ended up exceeding even my high end projection (.284/.402/.577, 39 HR), largely due to an increase in batting average and walk rates. Though the power dropped slightly, he was actually a better hitter in 2011 than he was in 2010.
After 2011, it's much easier to have confidence in his performance going forward. The power is certainly real - he's hit over 20% of his flyballs over the fence in each of the last two seasons - and while he's always been selective at the plate, his improved walk rate is largely due to the increased caution with which pitchers approached him, something not likely to change so long as he's mashing. The one area I do expect him to regress is in batting average - he sustained his improved SO rate, but as a flyball hitter who hits as many infield popups as Bautista does, I wouldn't expect him to sustain his .309 BABIP.
Others:
Eric Thames was the main fill-in when Bautista was at third, with Snider, Davis, and Patterson getting a handful of games there. I'll talk more about Snider and Thames when I address LF - that's one of the positional battles that merits some more discussion.
Going Forward:
For the near future, Bautista's not likely to be going anywhere. He's the current face of the franchise, its one true superstar, and he's signed to a reasonable contract through his prime.
There's a number of possibilities at the position beyond Bautista, depending on what plays out at the other spots. Rather than repeating myself, I'll talk a bit about the future outfield candidates in a separate thread after I get through the three OF positions
2012 Outlook:
Jose Bautista:
Projection: .280/.415/.560, 39 HR.
His batting average will likely dip a bit, but should remain a star hitter of a caliber which the Jays haven't had since Carlos Delgado was a member of the team.
By far the strongest position on the team, the numbers are mainly the work of Jose Bautista, but weighted down a little from a variety of other players who played there while the slugger was filling in at third.
Starter: Jose Bautista
2011 line: 149G, .302/.447/.608, 43 HR
I wrote at length about Bautista after his breakout season last year - the thread is here for those interested. (http://baseballnation.net/showthread.php?1427-Player-Profile-Jose-Bautista) I was aiming to figure out if his 2010 was for real, and based on some of the data I looked at - comparing the distance his HR traveled to other sluggers, his improved SO rate and BB rate, his FB rate, his unusually low BABIP - I figured that he'd regress somewhat due to an extreme flyball rate boosting his HR totals, but that he'd remain a top slugger. He ended up exceeding even my high end projection (.284/.402/.577, 39 HR), largely due to an increase in batting average and walk rates. Though the power dropped slightly, he was actually a better hitter in 2011 than he was in 2010.
After 2011, it's much easier to have confidence in his performance going forward. The power is certainly real - he's hit over 20% of his flyballs over the fence in each of the last two seasons - and while he's always been selective at the plate, his improved walk rate is largely due to the increased caution with which pitchers approached him, something not likely to change so long as he's mashing. The one area I do expect him to regress is in batting average - he sustained his improved SO rate, but as a flyball hitter who hits as many infield popups as Bautista does, I wouldn't expect him to sustain his .309 BABIP.
Others:
Eric Thames was the main fill-in when Bautista was at third, with Snider, Davis, and Patterson getting a handful of games there. I'll talk more about Snider and Thames when I address LF - that's one of the positional battles that merits some more discussion.
Going Forward:
For the near future, Bautista's not likely to be going anywhere. He's the current face of the franchise, its one true superstar, and he's signed to a reasonable contract through his prime.
There's a number of possibilities at the position beyond Bautista, depending on what plays out at the other spots. Rather than repeating myself, I'll talk a bit about the future outfield candidates in a separate thread after I get through the three OF positions
2012 Outlook:
Jose Bautista:
Projection: .280/.415/.560, 39 HR.
His batting average will likely dip a bit, but should remain a star hitter of a caliber which the Jays haven't had since Carlos Delgado was a member of the team.