Pretty dull (I mean exciting) September

[Mudge]

I can't think of a recent season that has ended with such little action.

With the exception of the AL West (and Texas should win that, what with a 3.5 game lead), there are no races of true importance. Yes, the Red Sox and the Yankees are vying for the top spot int the AL East, but even there, the loser is a winner to some degree.

It would seem that both Milwaukee and Arizona effectively put their respective divisions to rest by the first of the month, and unless something dramatic happens, Boston and Atlanta are pretty much assured of the Wild Card.

So...here's my question: given that the conditions are ripe for one team possibly to go down in flames (remember the 1964 Phillies), who is your candidate?

Yankees: 10.5 games up
Red Sox: 8 games up
Tigers: 8 games up
Rangers: 3.5 games up

Phillies: 17 games up
Braves: 7.5 games up
Brewers: 9.5 games up
Diamondbacks: 6 games up

[yankeebiscuitfan]

Despite their 14-0 victory over Toronto, the Red Sox aren't as strong as they were a few weeks ago. Sure it is hard to maintain the same level all season long.
They aren't as convincing anymore.

I don't see it happen, but I will not be surprised if they collapse and miss the play offs. But the same can be said about the Yankees. Despite the pitching issues, they keep winning lately. But that can turn around all of a sudden.

And maybe Arizona. Their play off run is a bit of a rollercoaster ride lately. But then San Francisco has to improve because they aren't doing much better at the moment.

Regarding the AL West, I hope that the Halos can overtake Texas, but I think the Rangers are too strong to let that happen. But with 19 games to go, 3.5 games is a slim margin.

[astrosfanatic]

the Rangers and their young starting pitching dont really have much of a lead now, and could turn south at any time

[Old Sweater]

I'd like to say the D Backs who are up 6 games on luck except so are the Giants.

I'll pick the Rangers as the prime candidate to choke down the stretch.

[RickD]

I could see the Yankees choking down the stretch but doubt it will happen. My money is on the Red Sox.

[BobH]

I am definitely a BoSox fan but am awfully concerned right now with all the injuries seeming to befall their pitching staff. In the NL the Giants have a superb pitching staff but they can't score runs. They've been limping along with wins here and there but I don't know if the staff can continue to do it with their arms. What they've done offensively this year when Lincecum pitches is pathetic. The kid is 12-12 with a 2.75 ERA and 200Ks. That just ain't right.-BH

[Brew Crew]

The Giants just don't have any sort of offense to catch the D-Backs down the stretch. The Rangers seem the logical choice for the team to choke down the stretch. They still have to play a 3 game series at the end of the season versus the Angels which still could be exciting. There remaining scheduled games are pretty easy with several against the A's and Mariners.

[yankeebiscuitfan]

The Giants just don't have any sort of offense to catch the D-Backs down the stretch. The Rangers seem the logical choice for the team to choke down the stretch. They still have to play a 3 game series at the end of the season versus the Angels which still could be exciting. There remaining scheduled games are pretty easy with several against the A's and Mariners.

The M's should not be a problem for the Rangers. But the A's are an opponent that should not be underestimated.

[Mex86]

I don't see any of these teams folding down the stretch - more importantly, I don't think the teams chasing them will play well enough to tke advantage. Texas would appear to the prime candidate, except that the punchless Angels have been shooting themselves in the foot all summer. They had their chance head-to-head against the Rangers and floundered. They have a great young nucleus (Bourjos, Trout, Trumbo) that will be a force to be reckoned with in the coming years. I just don't see it this year.

The Red Sox are banged up, and will likely have to "settle" for the WC, as it that's such a big deal anymore. Are they really going to blow an 8-game lead to the Rays? That would take an epic, 1978-style collapse. I think they're too good and too resourceful.

Stick a fork in the NL races. Gibby's got the D-Backs playing with fire and purpose; Carlos Beltran has not been the answer for the Giants' anemic lineup.

[yankeebiscuitfan]

Carlos Beltran has not been the answer for the Giants' anemic lineup.

IMO Beltran has always been overrated. I think he is a lazy bum in the OF. Who would expect that he would do better with the Giants than he did with the Mets? Not me.

[RickD]

It may be dull but there is a no-hitter happening right now as the A's Moscoso is perfect through 7!

[Old Sweater]

Moscoso couldn't handle the monkey on his back in the 8th, giving up a single.

[Mickey Mental]

I am definitely a BoSox fan but am awfully concerned right now with all the injuries seeming to befall their pitching staff.-BH

If Boston goes 10-10 in their final 20 games, Tampa Bay would have to go 17-3 to catch them. There's a chance Boston could go 10-10 due to their injuries but I sure don't think the Rays will go 17-3.

[yankeebiscuitfan]

Well, at least the Angels inched a bit closer to the Rangers, trailing 2.5 games now.

The Red Sox were friendly enough to lose as well.

[RickD]

If Boston goes 10-10 in their final 20 games, Tampa Bay would have to go 17-3 to catch them. There's a chance Boston could go 10-10 due to their injuries but I sure don't think the Rays will go 17-3.

I couldn't agree more. Tampa is not going to win 17 games at this point.

My concern is will Boston be ready for the playoffs with the injuries around them.

[Mudge]

My concern is will Boston be ready for the playoffs with the injuries around them.

I've always felt that this is one area where the teams with the bigger payrolls should have an advantage, whether it is covering for injuries at a crucial time in the season (read: playoffs) or having that right guy with experience in the right place ready to go -- even if you overpaid him for his role during the regular season.

[Mex86]

The Angels got the chance to fatten themselves up against the Mariners this week and last - let's see how they do this weekend with the Yankees in town.

[catman]

Nyjer Morgan has done what he can do to liven up the league lately. Not sure calling Albert Pujols out is a good idea, though.

[Old Sweater]

Nyjer Morgan has done what he can do to liven up the league lately. Not sure calling Albert Pujols out is a good idea, though.

You think the little feller would learn...............

http://i224.photobucket.com/albums/dd280/OldSweater/morgan_baseball-fight.gif

Then after he got flattened he was flashing some sort of signs to the fans?

[RickD]

Well here is an interesting article. I like the opening sentence.


And now, to sum up the September pennant races in baseball. ZZZZZZ.



Here's the link: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/story/2011-09-08/Baseball-drama-will-have-to-wait-until-the-October-playoffs/50330430/1

---------- Post added at 05:29 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:26 PM ----------


Nyjer Morgan has done what he can do to liven up the league lately. Not sure calling Albert Pujols out is a good idea, though.

General manager Doug Melvin told a Wisconsin radio station today that manager Ron Roenicke will handle the Morgan situation and that Roenicke was very upset by Morgan's actions in Wednesday's game.

[yankeebiscuitfan]

And what about the Yankees AND the Red Sox collapsing?
Both have lost three straight now. Wouldn't it be something if the Rays would catch them and would be gone with the AL East, leaving them both out of the play offs? It is a scenario nobody is talking about, but it could very well happen. Exciting as exciting can be.

[Mudge]

And what about the Yankees AND the Red Sox collapsing?
Both have lost three straight now. Wouldn't it be something if the Rays would catch them and would be gone with the AL East, leaving them both out of the play offs? It is a scenario nobody is talking about, but it could very well happen. Exciting as exciting can be.

I for one would love to see the Rays take them both (not going to happen, but I'd love to see it anyway).

I don't know exactly what the Yankees problem is at this point (two in a row to Baltimore would suggest a number of things combined), but I have followed the Red sox closely enough to see that all of their weaknesses are coming to the forefront right at the same time: bad starting pitching, key injuries exposing a lack of depth, and crummy baserunning.

We can revisit the numbers game.

Let's say the Rays sweep the Red sox this weekend. That would leave Boston at 85-61; the Rays at 81-64 (3.5 back). The sox would have 16 games left to play (TOR-2, TB-4, BAL-4, NY-3, BAL-3), and the Rays would have 17 (BAL-3, BOs-4, NYY-7, TOR-3). Doable for the Rays, for sure.

As for the Wild Card coming out of the AL WEsT -- don't hold your breath.

[yankeebiscuitfan]

As for the Wild Card coming out of the AL WEsT -- don't hold your breath.

I am not sure what you mean with that. But I think that the WC winner can come from the AL West very well. The Angels and Rays are really close together. So IF the Rays will overtake the Yanks and the Bosox, the Angels may very well clinch the Wild Card. Not likely, but in theory very well possible.

[RickD]

Well the Yankees and Red Sox should not be dropping games like this so late in the season.

With that being said Mudge, your analysis of why the Red Sox are collapsing could almost match the Yankees. They also have lousy pitching at this point. Colon is tiring, Burnett is well he just sucks. Hughes tires as the game goes along. They've had a few injuries that on the surface don't seem to impact them but the lack of consistency could be having an impact on how the team jells for the playoffs.

[Mudge]

I am not sure what you mean with that. But I think that the WC winner can come from the AL West very well. The Angels and Rays are really close together. So IF the Rays will overtake the Yanks and the Bosox, the Angels may very well clinch the Wild Card. Not likely, but in theory very well possible.
My point was that in order to win the Wild Card for the AL West, both the Angels and the Rangers would have to overtake the Rays, the Red Sox, and the Yankees. Possible? Of course. Likely? Not really.

[Brew Crew]

Mudge, I understand your logic on the Angels, but they are only 2 games behind the Rays in the Wild Card race. I understand the Rays have important series against the Red Sox upcoming, but 2 games to overtake the top team to catch the wild card team Red Sox is not that much.

[Mudge]

Mudge, I understand your logic on the Angels, but they are only 2 games behind the Rays in the Wild Card race. I understand the Rays have important series against the Red Sox upcoming, but 2 games to overtake the top team to catch the wild card team Red Sox is not that much.
Actually, the Angels are only a half game behind the Rays in the WC race.

Still, look at it this way.

Let's say the Yankees win the AL East and the Rangers win the AL West -- both likely at this point.

That leaves the Red Sox with a 5.5 game lead over the Rays right now and a 6 game lead over the Angels. The Rays have 6 games remaining against the Red Sox. Let's say further that the Rays win all 6 of those games and go 6-5 in their other 11 games (12-5 over the last 17 games of the year -- pretty darn good). Meanwhile, the Red Sox manage to go 5-5 in their other games, finishing the season 5-11. In this scenario, the Rays go ahead of the Red Sox in the Wild Card race.

Now, given that series of events, in order for the Angels to win the Wild Card, they have to do even better than the Rays in their final 16 games -- in fact they'd have to go 13-3.

Now, if the Angels go 13-3 over the next two and a half weeks, I submit that they'll be AL West champs. The Rays then still get the Wild Card unless Texas goes 11-6, and that's the only way the Wild Card comes out of the West.

[RickD]

Maybe Sept will heat up after all.

Tampa Bay is now only 3.5 games out of the Wild Card spot after spanking Boston and the Angels are only 5 games back.

In the NL...St. Louis is edging closer to the WC spot as well. We might have a few race to watch.

[Old Sweater]

Angels are just 2 games out for the division lead, counting today's games. Fat Lady is losing her breath!

[Mudge]

I certianly could have predicted the Red Sox plunge (in fact many of us did earlier in the thread). Good pitching like the Rays have right now going for them is always going to beat bad pitching -- which is of course what the Red Sox are trotting out to the mound most every day now.

The Yankees would appear to be safe, but neither are they playing great ball. That said, their recent losses have for the most part been by one run, which essentially means that they are in the game through to the end. This cannot be said for the Red Sox.

Texas and LAA may duke it out the the divisional title, but the loser will not likely qualify for the WC.

The Phillies are fine, and taking two out of three at Miller Park showed that they'll probably be able to handle the Brewers in the playoffs, though not without a battle. Their pitching is simply better than the Brewers hitting.

Speaking of the Brewers, they are sputtering a bit -- especially their offense -- but like the Yankees, they seem reasonably assured of a berth in the post season.

Not so for the Braves, who would appear to be the NL equivalent of the Red Sox, while the Cardinals take on the role of the Rays. Frankly, I was never all that impressed by Atlanta, and their weakness are beginning to take a toll.

Arizona's in. SF is out.

[JoshRedcay]

I could see the D Backs going down in flames, but that would require the Giants to keep winning as well.

[Baseballnum3er0]

I could see the D Backs going down in flames, but that would require the Giants to keep winning as well.

Even if the Giants run the table the D-Backs would just have to split their last 14 to make it in.

Red Sox, Brewers, and Braves have all taken a wide gap and are letting teams back in to contention. Although, I still think all 3 are going to manage to hold on with the Red Sox at most of an upset risk.

[CoreyR]

It would be really exciting to see the Rays win the wild card. They have been playing great ball while the Red Sox have been doing terrible. I rather see the Red Sox win the East over the Yankees (Only because of A-Gon) and they already have enough post season appearances and World Series Championships.

[RickD]

Rays lost tonight though to the Baltimore Orioles.....

[Mickey Mental]

Rays lost tonight though to the Baltimore Orioles.....

Tampa comes to Boston for a four game series starting on Thursday. The pitching matchups favor the Rays, although ESPN doesn't list Beckett as pitching any of the games and it was reported in Boston last night that he will be back this weekend and Bedard may be back on Monday vs. Baltimore.

[RickD]

Man the Red Sox/Rays game will be the one to watch.

[Mickey Mental]

Here's hoping Guthrie doesn't become the majors first 18 game loser on Wednesday night. :)

[RickD]

So here we stand:

In the AL we have the Yankees, Tigers and Rangers all holding down their division and the Wild Card race is down to the Red Sox, Rays and Angels.

In the NL we have the the Phillies locking their place in the postseason with the Brewers and Diamondbacks holding down the other 2 spots. The Braves, Cardinals and Giants are in the hunt for the NL Wild Card spot.

[RickD]

Tigers have won their 12th in a row and 22 out of their last 26.
The Red Sox have lost 6 out of their last 7.
The Pirates have recorded their 19TH LOSING SEASON!

[Mickey Mental]

The Pirates have recorded their 19TH LOSING SEASON!

Nineteenth consecutive losing season.

[yankeebiscuitfan]

The Red Sox start to look like the 1969 Cubs....

[RickD]

Would that make the Rays the 69 Mets?

---------- Post added at 08:06 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:40 AM ----------

The Tampa Bay Rays once were nine games out of a playoff spot with 24 games to play. They still have three games to make up with just 13 remaining!

[yankeebiscuitfan]

Would that make the Rays the 69 Mets?

---------- Post added at 08:06 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:40 AM ----------

The Tampa Bay Rays once were nine games out of a playoff spot with 24 games to play. They still have three games to make up with just 13 remaining!

Still very unlikely, but the way the Bosox are playing lately, not unthinkable.

And IF the Rays can take three games out of this weekend's series, they are only one game behind Boston.

[RickD]

I'm looking for the Rays to sweep and the Red Sox to fold.

[Mudge]

I can't think of a recent season that has ended with such little action.

With the exception of the AL West (and Texas should win that, what with a 3.5 game lead), there are no races of true importance. Yes, the Red Sox and the Yankees are vying for the top spot int the AL East, but even there, the loser is a winner to some degree.

It would seem that both Milwaukee and Arizona effectively put their respective divisions to rest by the first of the month, and unless something dramatic happens, Boston and Atlanta are pretty much assured of the Wild Card.

So...here's my question: given that the conditions are ripe for one team possibly to go down in flames (remember the 1964 Phillies), who is your candidate?

Yankees: 10.5 games up
Red Sox: 8 games up
Tigers: 8 games up
Rangers: 3.5 games up

Phillies: 17 games up
Braves: 7.5 games up
Brewers: 9.5 games up
Diamondbacks: 6 games up

I have to admit: looking back at this post, I was more prescient than I imagined I could be.

One team, the Red Sox, has indeed managed to screw the pooch royally, losing 6 of 7 to the Rays, and generously offering those of us (like me) who were pretty bored something of interest here in mid-September. The pitching-starved Sox are 4-13 for the month, and their 8 game lead in the Wild Card has shriveled to a mere 2 games over Tampa Bay and 4 over the Angels. The Rangers now are even in a safer place than the Red Sox. Interestingly, Boston's implosion has served also to obscure a Yankee slide that is simply (but only slightly) less egregious.

Over in the NL, Atlanta is doing better overall than Boston, though not by a whole lot: their 7.5 game lead (when I first posted) has shrunk to 4, but it leaves them still for the most part in control of their own destiny (quite simply, Boston needs New York to quiet the raging Rays).

The Giants are making a late surge (7 in a row) while Arizona founders with 3 straight losses, but I'm afraid it may be too little, too late for San Francisco at 5 games back.

Watch out for the Brewers (yes, they of the third best record in all of baseball -- soon to be second best after the Rays manhandle the Yanks) in this post-season. Greinke and Gallardo are pitching very well right now, and the top of the order is formidable.

[RickD]

The Irrational Yankee Fan in me says the Yanks will go all the way.

The realist viewpoint....the Yanks don't have the starting rotation to go deep in the playoffs. In fact, I would not be surprised if they lost the 1st round. CC and Ivan Nova and after that it's mostly weak pitching...The bullpen is strong but not what you want to rely on in winning games. Garcia seems off his game lately. AJ sucks and Hughes is too inconsistent imo.

I agree that the Sox implosion is getting the press and hiding a very weak Yankees team.

[yankeebiscuitfan]

The Irrational Yankee Fan in me says the Yanks will go all the way.

The realist viewpoint....the Yanks don't have the starting rotation to go deep in the playoffs. In fact, I would not be surprised if they lost the 1st round. CC and Ivan Nova and after that it's mostly weak pitching...The bullpen is strong but not what you want to rely on in winning games. Garcia seems off his game lately. AJ sucks and Hughes is too inconsistent imo.

I agree that the Sox implosion is getting the press and hiding a very weak Yankees team.

I agree with this Rick. Although I have some faith in Hughes. But he is very inconsistent. I will :ROFL: when the Red Sox don't make the play offs. But I also think that the Yankees won't get far. IMO the Rays have the best rotation in the AL right now. I won't be surprised at all if they make it to the WS again. They only have to improve their hitting.

[Mudge]

The pitching-starved Sox are 4-13 for the month,

Make that 4-14.

[RickD]

I am shocked to see them falling apart this way.

[Mudge]

: ...given that the conditions are ripe for one team possibly to go down in flames (remember the 1964 Phillies), who is your candidate?

Yankees: 10.5 games up
Red Sox: 8 games up
Tigers: 8 games up
Rangers: 3.5 games up

Phillies: 17 games up
Braves: 7.5 games up
Brewers: 9.5 games up
Diamondbacks: 6 games up

Ha! Two teams going down in flames!

Boston: up by .5 game (a total loss of 7.5 games since Sept. 6, and now with 4 to play)
Atlanta: up by 1 game (a total loss of 6.5 games since Sept 6, and now with 3 to play)

I've renamed the thread -- for obvious reasons -- and I just wanted also to note that both the Braves and the Red Sox have worse September records than the hapless 1964 Philadelphia Philles, who lost their post-season spot even though they were up by 6.5 games with 14 to play (they went 3-13 in their last 16 games)

SEPTEMBER RECORDS:

Boston: 5-18 (with 4 to play)
Atlanta: 9-15

Philliers 13-19 (back in '64)

[RickD]

Well the Sox have just been disgusting this whole month. Braves are not much better but the Sox look UGLY! Their game play has been atrocious.

[Old Sweater]

Astros announcers were hyping up the upcoming Cardinals/Astros series like it was the WS. I don't blame them! I'll sure be tuning in parts of that series.

[Mudge]

To be honest, the Red Sox have a better chance of making the post-season than do the Braves. Even if Boston loses tonight (which they will, of course, with John Lackey pitching), they play the Orioles for the final three gmes and the Rays play the Yankees. Now, if New York throws in an AAA team against then Rays, that's a horse of a different color.

[RickD]

For sure...the Yanks may do that though. I would at this point.

[yankeebiscuitfan]

To be honest, the Red Sox have a better chance of making the post-season than do the Braves. Even if Boston loses tonight (which they will, of course, with John Lackey pitching), they play the Orioles for the final three gmes and the Rays play the Yankees. Now, if New York throws in an AAA team against then Rays, that's a horse of a different color.

The O's have been spoiling every AL East contender's party lately. If I were you, I wouldn't be so sure that the Red Sox will beat them.

[astrosfanatic]

The Yankees had damn near a AAA group playing the Sox last night in extra innings. i think the only regular out there was Swisher when i started watching in the 10th/11th

i hope the Yankees play their AAA scrubs just to spite their "arch rivals" from Beantown. I would get a kick out of it.

[Mudge]

Going into the penultimate day of the season, here's how things stand.



AL Division Winners (in order of current w/l percentage): New York, Texas, Detroit
AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay and Boston are in a dead tie (each with 2 games left). Boston has let a 9 game lead slip away in the last 25 days.



NL Division Winners (in order of current w/l percentage): Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Arizona
NL Wild Card: Atlanta up by 1 game over the Cardinals (each with 2 games left).


Both Wild Card races are too close to call, so there is no point in speculating yet about who might play whom and where.

[astrosfanatic]

Hopefully my Astros get some payback for 2006 when the Cardinals barel edged us out....

[Mudge]

The Red Sox pitching staff have a 5.70 earned run average in the last 22 games (7.20 for the starters).

See the breakdown here: http://baseballnation.net/showthread.php?3609-Boston-Red-Sox-Baltimore-Orioles-(September-26-September28)

[BobH]

The Red Sox pitching staff have a 5.70 earned run average in the last 22 games (7.20 for the starters).......................

Yeah, I know. Beckett and Lester, normally the team stalwarts, have been pathetic in September. Plays like Ellsbury's giving up the Inside-the-Park job last night haven't helped either. The O's are destroyin' 'em.-BH

[Mudge]

I know all this information has been posted in the various threads reviewing all the important final series, but let's put it all together here in one place:

Wednesday's important games:

American League

TO DETERMINE WILD CARD
Boston at Baltimore (7:05). Jon Lester vs. Alfredo Simon
New York at Tampa Bay (7:10) TBA vs. David Price

TO DETERMINE BETTER RECORD
Cleveland at Detroit (7:05) Zach McAllister vs. Rick Porcello
Texas at LAA (8:05) Matt Harrison vs. Jered Weaver


National League

TO DETERMINE WILD CARD
Philadelphia at Atlanta (7:05) Cole Hamels vs. Tim Hudson
St. Louis at Houston (8:10) Chris Carpenter vs. Brett Myers

TO DETERMINE BETTER RECORD
Pittsburgh vs. Milwaukee (8:10) Jeff Locke vs. TBA (Zack Greinke? Yovanni Gallardo?)
LA vs. Arizona (9:40) Ted Lilly vs. Joe Saunders

[RickD]

Man this is going to be good!

[yankeebiscuitfan]

Darn shame that the games that matter are all starting at 1.00 AM Dutch time. I will be checking the inside of my eye lids then.

[Old Sweater]

Darn shame that the games that matter are all starting at 1.00 AM Dutch time. I will be checking the inside of my eye lids then.

I've always wondered about that but was to lazy to look it up. You're 6 hr's ahead of ET and 8 hr's ahead of Colorado.

[RickD]

1089
Cool image I found on MLB hat shows today's breakdown.

[Mex86]

Tonight was simply one of the greatest nights in baseball history - the best close to a regular season in any sport I've ever seen. Two pennant races decided in four cities - and the two teams that got eliminated both blowing leads in the 9th inning. Excruciating for Red Sox and Braves fans, the Sox in particular, leading by a run with two out and nobody on base in the 9th. The Rays surging into the playoffs a mere three minutes after learning of Boston's loss. You can't make this stuff up.

[Mudge]

Tonight was simply one of the greatest nights in baseball history - the best close to a regular season in any sport I've ever seen. Two pennant races decided in four cities - and the two teams that got eliminated both blowing leads in the 9th inning. Excruciating for Red Sox and Braves fans, the Sox in particular, leading by a run with two out and nobody on base in the 9th. The Rays surging into the playoffs a mere three minutes after learning of Boston's loss. You can't make this stuff up.

Agreed.

And how prophetic was my opening post in this thread?

[RickD]

Very....I also like how a dull September became quite exciting!

[Old Sweater]

Tonight was simply one of the greatest nights in baseball history - the best close to a regular season in any sport I've ever seen. Two pennant races decided in four cities - and the two teams that got eliminated both blowing leads in the 9th inning. Excruciating for Red Sox and Braves fans, the Sox in particular, leading by a run with two out and nobody on base in the 9th. The Rays surging into the playoffs a mere three minutes after learning of Boston's loss. You can't make this stuff up.

I'm with you. Can't remember a better night for watching the games on the computer and changing channels on the XM radio. Only thing bad about the night is what Yankees management done, but that is just IMO.