AL MaWRS: Mudge's and WilsonC's Rating System (copyright 2011)

[Mudge]

We have worked out a numerical value ranking system* that is easy to navigate because it operates on a scale that fits nicely with the traditional 1-100 scale (with a few extra credit points tossed in). The system is designed intentionally to reflect strength of schedule, which is why some teams have an MaWRS higher then an opponent who is ahead of them in the standings.

Dates include all games completed through the end of that day.

AL EAST

MaWRS: (8.10) (8.11) (8.12) (8.13) (8.14) (8.16) (8.17) WEEK RECORD

NEW YORK 100.5 101.1 99.6 100.1 101.3 101.6 100.8 +0.3 3-2
BOSTON 100.4 101.2 100.6 99.8 99.8 99.7 99.1 -1.3 2-4
TAMPA BAY 88.2 89.2 89.4 89.1 90.1 90.7 91.6 +3.4 3-2
TORONTO 90.5 90.6 89.3 89.9 91.1 90.7 90.9 +0.4 4-2
BALTIMORE 77.3 77.6 76.4 76.0 77.7 77.5 76.9 -0.4 2-4

AL CENTRAL

MaWRS: (8.10) (8.11) (8.12) (8.13) (8.14) (8.15) (8.16) WEEK RECORD

DETROIT 88.4 89.8 89.5 89.6 90.4 90.0 89.3 +0.9 3-3
CLEVELAND 87.8 88.2 88.0 88.3 89.0 87.8 88.4 +0.6 3-1
CHICAGO 83.0 85.0 83.4 83.9 84.0 84.6 84.6 +1.6 3-2
MINNESOTA 80.0 81.3 80.2 79.8 81.4 81.6 82.2 +2.2 2-3
KANSAS CITY 75.4 75.9 75.8 75.3 76.3 75.9 76.8 +1.4 2-4

AL WEST

MaWRS: (8.10) (8.11) (8.12) (8.13) (8.14) (8.15) (8.16) WEEK RECORD

TEXAS 89.5 90.5 89.4 89.7 90.6 91.7 92.3 +2.8 4-0
LOS ANGELES 90.4 90.2 91.1 90.6 90.9 90.1 89.7 -0.7 1-5
OAKLAND 81.8 82.6 82.2 81.9 82.7 82.1 82.3 +0.5 2-4
SEATTLE 80.1 82.0 79.8 80.9 82.5 82.7 82.3 +2.2 3-3


*Mudge's and WilsonC's Ranking System (MaWRS) is a system developed by Mudge and WilsonC and is used to identify overall performance factored by strength of schedule. Essentially, your team gets a certain number of points for winning and for losing. The value of those points depends upon the quality of the opponent that you are playing. For example beating the Red Sox gets you more points than beating the Orioles. Likewise, losing to the Red Sox gets you more points than losing to the Orioles. However, a win is always worth significantly more than a loss, no matter who the opponent.

[Mudge]

Observations?

[Old Sweater]

Observations?

BOSTON 100.6 99.8 loss=-.8
NEW YORK 99.6 100.1 idle=+.5
TAMPA BAY 89.4 89.1 idle=-.3
TORONTO 89.3 89.9 won=+.6
BALTIMORE 76.4 76.0 won=-.4


How did the Orioles win today and lose .4?

[RickD]

I like it. Your tweaks are only improving a system that looks sharp as is. I will be tracking this throughout the remainder of the season. Might be nice at the end to see the first post and the last one....see how it changed....

Also will be interesting to compare final standings with your MaWRS

[Mudge]

BOSTON 100.6 99.8 loss=-.8
NEW YORK 99.6 100.1 idle=+.5
TAMPA BAY 89.4 89.1 idle=-.3
TORONTO 89.3 89.9 won=+.6
BALTIMORE 76.4 76.0 won=-.4


How did the Orioles win today and lose .4?

Sorry, the dates are off kilter. I originally posted these in the morning, so the dates reflected where teams stood that morning.

I'll change them to reflect more accurately the dates of completed games.

[WilsonC]

From an aesthetic standpoint, it looks a lot better with this scale. It seems close to a seasonal "total expected wins" type of scale, if perhaps a little top-weighted.

[Mudge]

Here's the AL rankings over the course of the past week. I'm looking at the trends to see if there really is any merit to this system.

AL EAST

MaWRS: 8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/16 8/17 PAST WEEK 2011 SEASON TIER

NEW YORK 100.5 101.1 99.6 100.1 101.3 101.6 100.8 +0.3 (4-2) 74-47 (.612) 1
BOSTON 100.4 101.2 100.6 99.8 99.8 99.7 99.1 -1.3 (2-4) 74-48 (.607) 1
TAMPA BAY 88.2 89.2 89.4 89.1 90.1 90.7 91.6 +3.4 (4-2) 66-56 (.541) 3
TORONTO 90.5 90.6 89.3 89.9 91.1 90.7 90.9 +0.4 (4-3) 69-57 (.504) 3
BALTIMORE 77.3 77.6 76.4 76.0 77.7 77.5 76.9 -0.4 (2-5) 47-74 (.388) 6

AL CENTRAL

MaWRS: 8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/16 8/17 PAST WEEK 2011 SEASON TIER

DETROIT 88.4 89.8 89.5 89.6 90.4 90.0 89.3 +0.9 (4-3) 65-58 (.528) 3
CLEVELAND 87.8 88.2 88.0 88.3 89.0 87.8 88.4 +0.6 (3-2) 61-58 (.513) 3
CHICAGO 83.0 85.0 83.4 83.9 84.0 84.6 84.6 +1.6 (3-2) 61-61 (.500) 3 (+1)
MINNESOTA 80.0 81.3 80.2 79.8 81.4 81.6 82.2 +2.2 (2-3) 54-68 (.443) 5
KANSAS CITY 75.4 75.9 75.8 75.3 76.3 75.9 76.8 +1.4 (2-4) 52-73 (.411) 5

AL WEST

MaWRS: 8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/16 8/17 PAST WEEK 2011 SEASON TIER

TEXAS 89.5 90.5 89.4 89.7 90.6 91.7 92.3 +2.8 (6-0) 72-52 (.581) 2
LOS ANGELES 90.4 90.2 91.1 90.6 90.9 90.1 89.7 -0.7 (1-6) 69-59 (.524) 3
OAKLAND 81.8 82.6 82.2 81.9 82.7 82.1 82.3 +0.5 (3-4) 55-68 (.447) 5
SEATTLE 80.1 82.0 79.8 80.9 82.5 82.7 82.3 +2.2 (3-3) 53-69 (.434) 5


As you can see, the majority of the teams increased their weighted value (the AL as a whole went up 13.9 points for the week). So, how is this possible, you might ask, when the overall league won/lost record was an even 44-44?

The answer has to do with the fact that one team (the Chicago White Sox) moved up a tier, from a team with a .496 winning percentage to a team with a .500 winning percentage. This means that every game played against them (whether a win or a loss) increases in value -- a win twice as much as a loss, but nevertheless an increase.

Also note a couple of other features. The Tampa Bay Rays went 4-2 against the Red Sox and Yankees, both teams in the top tier (over .600 winning percentage). That's lots of points for the Rays, even more than Texas received for their perfect 6-0, but alas for the Rangers, they played their games this week against teams in tier 3 (LAA) and tier 5 (OAK).


Like the Rays, the Mariners get significant points just for going 2-1 against the tier 1 Red Sox.


On the other side of the ledger, the Red Sox, despite gaining points off the White Sox shift, nevertheless lost a significant amount (in relative terms at least) by going 1-2 against a tier 5 Seattle squad in addition to their 1-2 record against a more accomplished Rays team. So, is there anything further we might gain from studying the week's progress?

[yankeebiscuitfan]

To speak in Facebook terms: Like

[RickD]

I think we will see the long term merit of the system over a longer period of time. I found myself already referring to the NL MaWRS while looking at the Pirates spending on their draft picks. I think this system is great and long term use would indicate where it might need tweaked.

[Mudge]

AL EAST

MaWRS: 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 PAST WEEK 2011 SEASON TIER

NEW YORK 99.8
BOSTON 98.6
TAMPA BAY 90.6
TORONTO 90.6
BALTIMORE 79.5

AL CENTRAL

MaWRS: 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 PAST WEEK 2011 SEASON TIER

DETROIT 87.8
CLEVELAND 88.6
CHICAGO 83.7
MINNESOTA 80.5
KANSAS CITY 75.3

AL WEST

MaWRS: 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 PAST WEEK 2011 SEASON TIER

TEXAS 91.2
LOS ANGELES 89.6
OAKLAND 80.7
SEATTLE 81.6

[Mudge]

Let me see if I can put this at the top of the next page. WEEK 21

AL EAST

TEAM (TIER): 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 8/28

BOSTON (1) 98.6 98.8 99.1 100.5 98.7 99.5 99.0 101.5 99.6
NEW YORK (1) 99.8 100.0 100.2 101.9 100.6 99.7 98.2 100.2 98.5
TAMPA BAY (2/3) 90.6 90.8 91.8 91.4 91.0 90.2 90.0 93.0 89.5
TORONTO (3) 90.6 89.9 90.3 91.3 90.1 90,3 89.5 90.8 88.8
BALTIMORE (6/5) 76.0 75.6 76.3 77.3 76.2 76.9 76.2 78.2 76.6

AL CENTRAL

TEAM (TIER): 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 8/28

DETROIT (3/2) 87.8 88.4 89.3 91.1 91.2 90.9 89.1 92.3 89.6
CLEVELAND (3) 88.6 88.1 87.6 88.5 87.2 86.2 85.6 87.2 85.6
CHICAGO (3/4) 83.7 83.4 85.0 85.5 84.5 85.4 83.6 86.5 83.6
MINNESOTA (5) 80.5 80.2 82.4 83.7 81.0 80.9 78.9 80.2 78.3
KANSAS CITY (5) 75.3 75.1 76.7 77.9 77.2 77.1 75.5 78.3 76.2

AL WEST

TEAM (TIER): 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 8/28

TEXAS (2) 91.2 91.5 92.7 91.4 91.9 92.7 91.0 93.3 90.7
LOS ANGELES (3) 89.6 89.7 91.2 91.2 90.2 91.6 90.2 92.4 90.5
OAKLAND (5/4) 80.7 81.4 81.6 82.9 82.0 81.8 82.4 85.1 82.2
SEATTLE (5) 81.6 81.2 83.5 82.6 82.1 83.8 83.2 84.5 83.2

[RickD]

Staring to reflect a bit more how the standings currently are. Yankess at 100! I like that. They are playing quite well overall.