LarryBud
04-15-2011, 09:12 AM
RON SHANDLER
Baseball HQ
One of the reasons it is tough to identify each year's Jose Bautista in advance is the timing. On Opening Day 2010, Bautista didn't have a clear path to playing time. Certainly no reason to jump on him then. He was a late-round afterthought in AL-only leagues and often undrafted completely in mixed leagues.
On May 3, he was batting just .206 with 4 home runs. Certainly no reason to jump on him then either. In fact, in many leagues he was being cut.
After the May 11 game, he was still batting just .211 though now with 7 HR. More desirable now? Maybe a bit, though not nearly enough to empty out the FAAB coffers.
From May 12 through the end of the month, Bautista would hit 9 more HRs and bat .345.
May 12. That was the day to jump.
In many leagues, he would have been sitting on reserve that day. Maybe his lucky owner smelled some of the early May power and activated him in time for the explosion. In other leagues, the closest person to a computer on May 17 might have grabbed him out of the free agent pool after he had gone 5 for 10 with 4 HRs the previous three days.
But Bautista was not the only surprise impact player last year. There were others who revealed themselves earlier in the season.
* Trevor Cahill had a breakout 18-8, 2.97 ERA year. How did it begin? After giving up 6 runs in 5 IP in his first start, he then posted a 1.96 ERA in his next six starts.
* Matt Capps posted a career-high 42 saves. It started as 7 saves in his first 8 outings through April 21.
* Jaime Garcia's sterling rookie campaign began with allowing one run in his first 13 IP. He didn't see his ERA hit 2.00 until June 27.
* Carlos Gonzalez's MVP-caliber performance began with him going 8 for 15 in his first three games.
* Livan Hernandez had a very un-Livan-like 3.66 ERA last season. It began with 13 scoreless innings.
* Angel Pagan's first 500-AB season at age 29 began with a .400 BA after his first four games. And while he dropped to .257 by the end of April, a 12 for 30 stretch May 5-12 boosted him right back on pace.
* Gaby Sanchez's 19-85-.273 rookie season started with a .353 BA after five games.
Some of these early surgers were not rostered on draft day but were grabbed out of the free agent pool almost immediately. Let's face it... it takes no great management acumen to claim a player after he's put up big numbers. But winning teams don't ask questions; only losing teams do.
So maybe it's time to jump first and ask questions later. Pick a name. Take a chance. Depending upon your league, the upside might justify the risk.
Baseball HQ
One of the reasons it is tough to identify each year's Jose Bautista in advance is the timing. On Opening Day 2010, Bautista didn't have a clear path to playing time. Certainly no reason to jump on him then. He was a late-round afterthought in AL-only leagues and often undrafted completely in mixed leagues.
On May 3, he was batting just .206 with 4 home runs. Certainly no reason to jump on him then either. In fact, in many leagues he was being cut.
After the May 11 game, he was still batting just .211 though now with 7 HR. More desirable now? Maybe a bit, though not nearly enough to empty out the FAAB coffers.
From May 12 through the end of the month, Bautista would hit 9 more HRs and bat .345.
May 12. That was the day to jump.
In many leagues, he would have been sitting on reserve that day. Maybe his lucky owner smelled some of the early May power and activated him in time for the explosion. In other leagues, the closest person to a computer on May 17 might have grabbed him out of the free agent pool after he had gone 5 for 10 with 4 HRs the previous three days.
But Bautista was not the only surprise impact player last year. There were others who revealed themselves earlier in the season.
* Trevor Cahill had a breakout 18-8, 2.97 ERA year. How did it begin? After giving up 6 runs in 5 IP in his first start, he then posted a 1.96 ERA in his next six starts.
* Matt Capps posted a career-high 42 saves. It started as 7 saves in his first 8 outings through April 21.
* Jaime Garcia's sterling rookie campaign began with allowing one run in his first 13 IP. He didn't see his ERA hit 2.00 until June 27.
* Carlos Gonzalez's MVP-caliber performance began with him going 8 for 15 in his first three games.
* Livan Hernandez had a very un-Livan-like 3.66 ERA last season. It began with 13 scoreless innings.
* Angel Pagan's first 500-AB season at age 29 began with a .400 BA after his first four games. And while he dropped to .257 by the end of April, a 12 for 30 stretch May 5-12 boosted him right back on pace.
* Gaby Sanchez's 19-85-.273 rookie season started with a .353 BA after five games.
Some of these early surgers were not rostered on draft day but were grabbed out of the free agent pool almost immediately. Let's face it... it takes no great management acumen to claim a player after he's put up big numbers. But winning teams don't ask questions; only losing teams do.
So maybe it's time to jump first and ask questions later. Pick a name. Take a chance. Depending upon your league, the upside might justify the risk.