THe Met Mess

[RickD]

Forget Bernie Madoff and Fred Wilpon...

even beyond that, the Mets are in a mess.

Getting rid of Perez and Castillo still leaves them on the hook for $18.2 million in 2011 to 2 players who won't even play for the team this year.

You also have these committed contracts:

* LHP Johan Santana: Due $75 million through 2013, including a $5.5 million buyout of a 2014 option. And probably won't pitch until June as he recovers from shoulder surgery.
* OF Jason Bay: Due $54.7 million through 2013, including buyout on a 2014 option. Still an iffy prospect this year due to concussion problems, and hit just six home runs in his Mets debut season.
* 3B David Wright: Due $30.5 million through 2012, with a $16 million club option or $1 million buyout for 2013. Of course, the one player they may actually want to keep can walk away sooner than the other two.
* OF Carlos Beltran: Will make $19.3 million this season, and then become a free agent, as will shortstop Jose Reyes ($11 million).

[WilsonC]

I think the real question will be how the ownership situation impacts the team.

There's a lot of sunk costs here, but a lot of it's tied up only through this year. The Mets' have the revenue that the hole isn't necessarily as big as it looks going forward.

They're in for a long year with the number of patchwork solutions they're banking on, but looking ahead past this year, there'll be a good chunk of money coming off the books. It's a team that could take a huge step forward in its outlook a year from now:

- Perez, Beltran, and Castillo will be off the books.
- Reyes will either be off the books, or resigned with his performance and health this year accounted for.
- Wright's contract is team-friendly - 15-M is a good investment unless he declines, and the club option gives them significant reward at a minimal risk.
- Santana and Bay are both health risks and unlikely to be worth the investment, but if Santana's surgery goes well he's still a very good pitcher, and as long as Bay recovers from his concussion, he should rebound in the power department somewhat. The contracts are sunk costs, but the players have a good chance to be valuable contributors in 2012 forward.

They're not loaded with impact young talent, but they're also not barren of cost-effective contributors. They've got enough solid young players that they won't have to rely entirely on outside help to improve. Unless the front office is totally handcuffed by the unstable ownership situation - a possibility, certainly - I think we'll see a much more promising organization a year from now.

[Mex86]

Great points, Wilson. Purge the contracts first, then they can be in position to contend. If the Mets are not a contender by July, look for Reyes and Beltran (assuming he's healthy enough to show some value) to be gone.

Here's the article on Perez, and it also covers the worst contracts the Mets have had to eat over the years.

There's also a mention of how Perez might never have become a Met if not for Duaner Sanchez's injury in July '06. I have maintained for awhile that the Mets were never the same team after that... Sanchez was a brilliant setup man for Billy Wagner, the best 8th inning guy they've had, and they've never fully replaced him. Who knows; if they'd had Sanchez healthy for the playoffs, the Cardinals might never have scored those late-inning runs in Game 7, and Beltran's Mets career might never have been defined by the called third strike he took from Adam Wainwright with the bases load, two out in the 9th inning.
http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/news/story?id=6242549

[Mudge]

And if the hare had not stopped to sniff the flowers (or take a leak, I'm not sure which), he'd have beaten the tortoise.

The Mets are in dire straits for this year, but the future could be bright if good management can be brought to bear on the situation (which is, no doubt, rather messy). I am not sanguine.

[Old Sweater]

I'll never understand the contract that the Mets gave Jason Bay. There is no way his power numbers at Citi were going to be as good as they were at Boston.

[astrosfanatic]

i say let everyone except Wright walk and try to build around Wright....they got some pretty solid pieces in Pagan, Ike Davis, and Bay to go with Wright. If only they for the next couple years. They need to find another player who can come in and be an impact player. 30 million comes off the books with Reyes and Beltran, so that will help. They need to trade Reyes for some pitching prospects, and take that 30 million and find a couple solid starters to work behind Santana. So many holes for this team from the rotation to the bullpen to the lack of power. pitching is where you start when rebuilding, so hopefully they can make some big moves this off-season

[Mex86]

I am not sanguine.

But are you in any way optimistic? :)

SI reporting that the Yankees are interested in Perez as a "cheap sign", but Brian Cashman not enthused. Wouldn't that be a kick...

[DieHard]

I do have to give kudos to the Mets for actually getting rid of people instead of just putting up with BS or poor performance. I know the whole being on the hook for the money sucks, but I like the decision.

[Mex86]

Castillo signs with the Phillies, and Perez signs a minor-league contract with the Nationals. Meanwhile, the Mets' starting 2B looks like rookie Brad Emaus, beating out stiff competition from the likes of Justin Turner, Luis Hernandez, and Daniel Murphy. OK, so maybe it wasn't all that stiff.

Here's a quick look at Emaus: "Selected from the Blue Jays with the 11th pick in the Rule 5 draft back in December, the 25-year-old Emaus hit 290 with a .397 on-base percentage and .476 slugging percentage in 125 games between Double-A and Triple-A last season, drawing more walks (81) than strikeouts (69), swiping 13 bases, and homering 15 times." (nbcsports.com)

[WilsonC]

I'll be curious to see how Emaus does. He was never really a prospect with the Jays, mainly due to limited upside, but he's performed well enough to deserve his shot. I could see his bat something in the mold of a Marco Scutaro; not a star, but someone who works the count well and has good bat control, with just enough pop to keep pitchers honest. The question mark is more his defense. If he can hold his own at the position, he could be adequate.

[Strawman]

I actually am optimistic about the future. We aren't doing anything this season or next, but we have some nice young players offensively. I don't think a full blown rebuild is necessary, but we are in a "mini-rebuild" if you wanna call it that.

The only player from the core that I see being moved if he does relatively well is 'Los. I realize that's a big if, because of his injury, but an American League team will bit if he lives up to his projections. The rest aren't going anywhere, outside of maybe Jose, and I'd be crushed if he is, although I realize it's a possibility.

[RickD]

Well it is good to be optimistic. I just think with the owner, things aren't going to well this year as Wilpon and his past actions will be too much of a distraction.

[Mex86]

I honestly don't believe the Wilpons lawsuit will be as much of a distraction as you think. Ownership problems are played out far from the field; the Mets will have enough to worry about between the pitching questions - Capuano, K-Rod, Santana-- Beltran's health, Reyes being trade bait; Bay's recovery from a concussion-- all that, and a new manager who, at 61, has mellowed somewhat from the fiery competitor who alienated two previous teams. At least there are no expectations and they will fly under the radar this year. I'm looking forward to watching the development of guys like Ike Davis, Angel Pagan, R.A. Dickey, and rookie catcher Josh Thole.

[Strawman]

All I know, is, as someone who watches anywhere from 140 to 150 games on tv a season, this offseason was a win. Now, before you think I'm an idiot or homer (I won't disagree with the homer stuff to a certain extent hehe)....you have to realize how horrible of a manager and FO we had. Also, not seeing Slappy Castillo and LOLiver Perez make me feel much better. No, I'm not saying we're doing anything this season with Terry Collins, but Jerry Manuel was one of the absolute worst in-game managers, bullpen managers and he damn near tried his best to ruin our top pitching prospect by rushing him up and sticking him somewhere where he had ZERO history in -- the bullpen. Then, he thought it would be an awesome idea to stick a puppy like Jenrry into high-pressure situations from the start. I really just could not stand Manuel whatsoever....

Player wise, no it wasn't that big BUT we were cash strapped, so most of us weren't expecting us to make any splashes, although I do like some of the low risk/high reward moves we made, like Izzy, Capuano, Young etc....not the idea moves, but like I said, we weren't expecting much....

[Mex86]

Here's a more hopeful take on the Mets' long-term prognosis - and very well written to boot.
http://nymag.com/news/sports/games/sandy-alderson-2011-4/

[yankeebiscuitfan]

For the BN members among us who has some spare money left, soon the Mets will sell minority shares at 20 MM a piece. It is expected that they will sell at least five minority shares.

[yankeebiscuitfan]

The Mets has presented their alternate jersey today:

1321

[RickD]

Underdog:

1322

Make the U blue and there ya go!

I can start humming the theme now.

[yankeebiscuitfan]

It looks like the financial trouble of the Mets is getting worse.

Since Citi Field opened it's doors, ticket sales have plemented with 30%.
Premium tickets sales has even dropped with 50%. The concession revenue has dropped with 28%.

I think it is time for the Wilpons to sell the Mets. They can not afford to field a competitive team, which will eventually lead to less ticket sales.

[yankeebiscuitfan]

The Wilpons have agreed to settle in the Madoff case. They will pay 162 million, so little room will be left for the payroll of the Mets.

My goodness... 162 million dollars... You can wonder how richt these people are.